Is the US now heading for interest rate cuts?

27 June 2016, 19:51
Sherif Hasan

A lot of market players seem to think so

Credit Suisse think the next move in US rates will be a cut and they point to the big swing in FFR probabilities.

Looking at the numbers a day before the Brexit vote and now, the shift is quite startling

On Friday, the probability of a cut stood at 10% for the July meeting rising to 13.9% for the Sep FOMC. While July's dropped today, the jump in Sep is big.

Obviously there's a lot of noise from the referendum but we can't say that the Fed has helped their cause with rate expectations, and this sentiment is going to make it very hard for USDJPY to recover in any meaningful way.

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