Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (June 20 - 24, 2016)
19 June 2016, 20:04
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Here’s the market outlook for this week: Content courtesy of Tallinex Limited https://www.tallinex.com
EURUSD
Dominant bias: NeutralAll of the bearish pulls last week were rendered useless by bullish efforts, as price remained between the resistance line at 1.1300 and the support line at 1.1150. The impasse between bulls and bears has enforced neutrality in the market so, unless price breaks the resistance line at 1.1400 (causing a bullish bias) or the support line at 1.1100 (causing a bearish bias), the neutrality will continue. This pair is quite choppy right now, but strong movement is expected this week - most likely favouring bears.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Price moved sideways last week - upswings and downswings in the context of a downtrend. Breach of the 0.9550 support level is required for the bearish journey to continue, but further decline of EURUSD will trigger a rally resulting in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern if price gets above the resistance level at 0.9800, but strong buying pressure is required for that to happen.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
No unprecedented movement is expected on GBP pairs this week (just as no unusual market movement occurred with Grexit) because the primary causes of extreme market moves are unexpected events, whereas the effects of Brexit (and Bremain) are well anticipated. Of course, there will be some large moves, but nothing more than already witnessed this year. Throughout Thursday, June 23, GBPUSD (and most other GBP pairs) will go in one direction with little or no reversal, but there should be nothing out of the ordinary. The outlook is still bearish, so further decline could be witnessed this week.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
As previously forecast, price declined another 300 pips last week - dropping below the demand level at 104.00 before going sideways again. Price has fallen 550 pips since the beginning of the month, and the downtrend is likely to continue as price targets the demand levels at 103.50 and 103.00.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market - like most JPY pairs. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, so price may reach the demand zones at 117.00, 116.00, and 115.00 this week or next. The demand levels at 117.00 and 116.00 were tested last week, and will likely be retested this week. One point to note: bearish pressure on the Euro will make any significant EURJPY rally quite difficult this week.
I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:
“You don't have to trade perfectly. You just have to trade profitably. Put a single trade in perspective. It's just one trade of the many trades you will make in your lifetime. You may lose or you may win, but the outcome of a single trade does not matter. What matters are your overall profits across a series of trades, not just a single trade.” - Joe Ross
Azeez Mustapha
Currency Analyst
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