JPMorgan analysis gives 'leave' side 3-5 percentage point lead in Brexit vote

18 June 2016, 11:37
Sherif Hasan

Analysts at JPMorgan attempt to sift through the polls

Cable squeezed higher late in trading on Friday but sank a half-cent from the highs, in part because JPMorgan analysts released a report arguing that the 'leave' side truly is ahead.

"Our attempt to clean up the polls for methodological issues suggests a lead for leave in the 3-5 percent range at the time of writing," the research note said.

"The swing toward leave appears to have accelerated as we moved into the period when we would expect status quo bias to show," they wrote.

Referendums and votes normally shift towards the status quo in the final days but they haven't detected that.

From here on out they said it is "unlikely" that newly released polls will show any type of clear trend because of the variance in the data. Note that one poll (at least) will be released Saturday.

What happens if the Brexit side wins?

They say Cameron won't last the night.

"Our best guess is that David Cameron would resign as rime minister within hours ofthe result being known," they add the Boris Johnson will take over.

From there, they suggest information negotiations with the EU will take place before the notice is given and that the BOE will cut rates in July and August.

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