EUR/USD Watch for Counter Trend Confluence
The EUR/USD is patiently waiting for major economic data coming in this week. We have some real high impact info this week and we could see riskoff sentiment possibly coming back. We need to watch out for upcoming releases:
1. Wednesday CNY manufacturing data, very important data for CNY + ADP
2. Thursday ECB press conference and OPEC
3. Friday – NFP
Any bad US data during week including bad CNY data could cause a risk off. If OPEC fails to cut Oil and oil price drops subsequently, it won't be good for USD. End of month positions may reverse too on profit taking.
In addition to fundamentals, technical chart is also showing signs of a possible counter trend movement as we could see that weekly support is there X cross on weekly chart formed by historical buyers and lower equidistant channel support line. On H4 time frame we can see the similar picture. L3 support is sitting at the bottom of equidistant support + we can see a regular bullish divergence. While above 1.108570 EURUSD might turn bullish targeting 1.1200 and 1.1240.
So it is very important that we pay attention to price flow as the EURUSD is close to a counter trend confluence POC.