NZD: RBNZ Kept Cards Close to the Chest – ANZ
Research Team at ANZ, notes that the OCR was maintained at 2.25% by RBNZ
and a clear easing bias was retained (“further policy easing may be
“That was consistent with our expectation and we suspect the broader consensus, although it certainly wasn’t a unanimous view. At the margin, the tone of the statement was a touch less dovish than in March, although to be fair it was difficult for it not to be.
But the RBNZ still had enough in the statement to keep the doves happy. In particular, the RBNZ remains cautious about global prospects, noting that “global growth has deteriorated over recent months”, with China again singled out. It continues to highlight concern over lower inflation expectations. And it was a little more direct in its language towards the currency.
In fact, we get the impression there was a deliberate attempt by the RBNZ to maintain a clear dovish tone today – perhaps recognising the possible NZD consequence of a more upbeat message.
In many ways, there was something for everyone in the statement, with the RBNZ looking as though it is keeping its cards pretty close to its chest. It also means that the RBNZ’s base case presented in the March MPS, of roughly one further OCR cut, likely remains its central view.
The door to a June OCR cut remains open, and that remains our forecast for now. But we see this as very much a line-ball call (we see the odds of a cut at about 60%).”