Canadian Core Inflation Bounces Higher; BoC On Hold For Rest Of The Year - Nomura

Canada’s headline came in at 1.3%, while core CPI inflation increased to 2.1%. Inflation excluding food and energy remained unchanged at 1.7%.

Overall, the report shows that inflationary pressures increased slightly in March mainly as a result of continued pass-through from the weaker CAD. However, broader inflationary pressures remain subdued as evidenced by inflation excluding food and energy.  

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We continue to believe inflation is not the main source of concern for the Bank of Canada (BoC) currently, as the Bank continues to view that a significant amount of excess supply will counterbalance upside pressures from the weaker currency.

We continue to believe the BoC will keep its policy rate on hold this year.