‘Brexit’ will be a Big Q2 Theme - SocGen
Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that ‘Brexit’ will be a big Q2 theme of course.
“The quality of the debate is still dire but one much-cited threat to sterling is the combination of a large current account deficit and the uncertainty caused by the vote.
Q2 data are due today along with final GDP figures and March money supply data. We expect the deficit to have widened slightly to GBP 20.5bn, about 4.4% GDP. Not as bad as it was at the peak but more fodder for those who want to scare voters into voting to remain in the EU and as such, another negative for sterling.
We’ve been using GBP/NPK shorts as out preferred trade to be short the pound, and while this has quietened down a lot we’re happy to stick with it. Short sterling against a weighted basket of USD and EUR appeals, too.”
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