| 18 March 2016, Time of Writing: 09:00 am |
Trader Daily Market Update |
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| Major Calendar News |
| Time (GMT) | Name | Country | Vol. | Prev. | Cons. | Sentiment |
|---|
| 12:30 | Core CPI m/m | CAD | High | 0.3% | 0.5% | Neutral | | 12:30 | Core Retail Sales m/m | CAD | High | -1.6% | 0.6% | Neutral | | 12:30 | CPI m/m | CAD | Med. | 0.2% | 0.3% | Neutral | | 12:30 | Retail Sales m/m | CAD | Med. | -2.2% | 0.7% | Neutral | | 13:00 | FOMC Member Dudley Speech | USD | Med. | - | - | Dovish | | 14:00 | Preliminary UoM consumer Sentiment | USD | High | 91.7 | 92.1 | Neutral | | 15:00 | FOMC Member Rosengren Speech | USD | Med. | - | - | Dovish | | 18:00 | FOMC Member Bullard Speech | USD | Med. | - | - | Hawkish |
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| Vol.: Volatility; Prev.: Previous; Cons.: Consensus |
| Key Support/Resistance Levels |
| H4 | R2 | R1 | Pivot | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1423 | 1.1367 | 1.1287 | 1.1231 | 1.1151 | | GBPUSD | 1.4679 | 1.4578 | 1.4399 | 1.4293 | 1.4115 | | USDJPY | 113.82 | 112.59 | 111.62 | 110.39 | 109.41 | | AUDUSD | 0.7741 | 0.7674 | 0.7628 | 0.7597 | 0.7551 | | USDCAD | 1.3178 | 1.3083 | 1.3013 | 1.2917 | 1.2850 |
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| Latest News |
The Bank of England held monetary policy steady following a unanimous vote yesterday, which was accompanied by a less dovish than expected statement in which members stated that the recent fall in GBP is mainly attributed to Brexit fears. The neutral statement however sparked a GBP rally, in which we saw GBPUSD rise 1.5% on the day. Meanwhile, a falling US Dollar triggered oil prices to reach new 2016 highs yesterday, which in turn saw USDCAD fall to a fresh 5-month low. Lastly, rumours began swirling that the Bank of Japan intervened in the FX markets after USDJPY initially fell below 111, and reached a new low not seen since late October of 2014, followed by a sudden 1% rally in the pair. The economic calendar slows down near the end of the week, with Canada scheduled to publish inflation and retail sales data followed by consumer sentiment figures out of the US. Traders should also be on the lookout as there are three FOMC members due to speak this evening, including FED member Dudley (dove), Rosengren (dove) and Bullard (hawk). |
| Daily Technical Analysis |
| | Summary: | Trend: | Momentum: | Daily Target: | Volatility (14D): |
|---|
| EURUSD | BUY | BUY | BUY | 1.1365 | 119 Pips | | GBPUSD | BUY | BUY | BUY | 1.4575 | 157 Pips | | USDJPY | SELL | SELL | SELL | 110.35 | 132 Pips | | AUDUSD | BUY | BUY | BUY | 0.7705 | 100 Pips | | USDCAD | SELL | SELL | SELL | 1.2920 | 154 Pips |
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| Daily Technical Analysis is conducted using proprietary technology based on advanced methods of time-series analysis and custom build technical indicators. Detailed quantitative analysis of the market state on different timeframes let us accurately evaluate current Trend and Momentum. Going further we deduce the daily target from the multiple factors such as long and short term momentum, different volatility measures, mode of market behaviour and other characteristics. For a ranged market we will show a range instead of a single number. |
| Daily Forecasts |
| | Spot Price* | Last Update | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month |
|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1312 | 18/03/2016 | 1.1200 | 1.11 | 1.11 | | GBPUSD | 1.4461 | 18/03/2016 | 1.4295 | 1.41 | 1.41 | | USDJPY | 111.36 | 18/03/2016 | 112.60 | 114 | 115 | | AUDUSD | 0.7645 | 17/03/2016 | 0.7550 | 0.73 | 0.71 | | USDCAD | 1.2989 | 18/03/2016 | 1.3080 | 1.30 | 1.32 |
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*spot prices as of 07:00GMT Daily Forecasts consists of both technical and fundamental analysis as well as a review of open sources from major FX contributors. |
