USD Into NFP: Good News For Medium-Term Bulls - Deutsche Bank

As we look to the coming payroll report, it’s worth considering that even in the midst of a possible ‘slow patch’, the US is still expected to generate 195K payroll jobs in February, only marginally down from the 6m, 12m, 24m, 36m averages of 215K, 222K, 238K and 223K respectively.

A 195K number is very consistent with the UE rate continuing on a familiar rapid path lower, with the U3 rate declining by 0.5% or more per annum.

The unemployment rate, like most single variables does not have a unblemished record, but tends to lead the USD TWI by close to 1 year - so it is always good news for medium-term USD bulls, when a signal that leads by this long, is still not showing signs of finding a bottom, and is a long way from signaling a USD top.

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