Dear Traders,
The performance of the U.S. dollar failed to impress despite a stronger consumer price report Friday. While we were looking for increased bearish momentum in the EUR/USD after a break below 1.1070, the short dip turned out to be a false break-out of the euro's narrow trading range. There is plenty of economic data from the eurozone scheduled for release this week, so traders should be looking out for breakouts above 1.1150/1.12 and vice versa below 1.1070/50.
The major topic by the end of last week was the latest Brexit talks, which strongly influenced the British pound. Towards the end of Friday's trading session the pound rallied towards 1.44 after Prime Minister David Cameron secured a deal on membership terms with EU leaders and set a June 23 date for the U.K. referendum. While some market participants perhaps would have expected the pound to extend its uptrend on Monday, the GBP/USD opened with a gap, trading again around its support level at 1.4250. Sterling's sharp decline over the weekend can be attributed to Boris Johnson's decision to support the Brexit campaign, defining a split among Conservatives. London Mayor Boris Johnson is one of the U.K.'s most popular politicians and widely believed to be the next leader of the Conservative Party. His attitude towards Britain's exit from the EU has thus a lot of influence on the pound. Given the ongoing uncertainty and concerns surrounding the Brexit campaign, even if the vote is still four months away, the risk is to the downside for the pound.
GBP/USD
We see a symmetrical triangle in the hourly chart. Based on that pattern both bullish and bearish fluctuations are possible in the near-term. Above 1.43, sterling may heads for higher levels at 1.4350 and 1.4390, closing the opening gap. Below 1.4270 chances are that a renewed test of 1.4250/40 will lead to a sustained break below 1.4240, driving the pair towards lower targets at 1.4205 and 1.4150.
The only important piece of data from the U.K. this week will be Gross Domestic Product figures, due for release on Thursday.
EUR/USD
Taking a brief look at the technical outlook, we see the euro trading slightly downwards. While upwards movements have been capped at 1.1140, the support area at 1.1070 is still intact. We focus on prices above 1.1160 and subsequently on a break above 1.12 in order to buy euros. On the bottom side, the support at 1.1070 and further 1.1050 could limit bearish moves in the near-term. However, a sustained break below 1.1040 may send the euro towards 1.0990 and 1.0920.
There are plenty of economic reports from the Eurozone and the USA scheduled for release throughout the entire week as well as Fed speak.
Here are the most important pieces of data on the calendar:
Tuesday - German IFO Index, U.S. Consumer Confidence
Thursday - U.K. GDP, Eurozone Consumer Prices, U.S. Durable Goods Orders
Friday - German Consumer Price, U.S. GDP, U.S. PCE Core
Today we will watch Eurozone PMI reports, scheduled for release at 8:30 and 9:00 GMT, followed by the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, due at 14:45 GMT.
We wish everyone many profitable trades and a good start to the new week.
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