First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- with regard to EUR/USD, in spite of the differences between indicators and graphical analysis, we took a chance and insisted that the pair would hold out in the corridor not above 1.1000 and not below 1.0800 until the very end of 2015.As a result, on Monday, the pair rose to 1.0990, and by December 31, dropped to 1.0850, so that the prediction came 100% true;
- about the same discordant voices were heard about the future of GBP/USD as well. At the same time 50% of the indicators on N4 and 83% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 argued that the 1.4930 area would be unbearable resistance for it and the pair would go down to the 1.4740 support. This forecast also came true by100% - the pair immediately went down and met the New Year at the level of 1.4733;
- forecast of the USD/JPY behavior was talking about multiple fluctuations in the range of 120.25 ÷ 121.45, which, in general, is what happened, however, the oscillations were not as strong as expected - the pair bounced off this zone of support for couple of times, but it did not succeed to overcome height of 120.65;
- as for the pair USD/CHF graphical analysis claimed that support for the pair would be the 0.9850 level, from which the pair would go up - to the symbolic height of 1.0000, which also came to pass with 100% accuracy.
***
For the second week in a row, we use only the technical and graphical analysis when giving forecasts, as all eminent analysts continue to restore power having New Year holidays. However, if you look at the above report, it appears that you can do without their advice, - the precision of forecasts will only grow :)
Now the forecast for the coming week:
- with regard to EUR/USD, 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1, as well as graphical analysis on a daily interval are confident that the pair will continue to fall to 1.0515 support or somewhat lower - down to the March low at 1.0450.At the same time graphical analysis on H1 warns that before starting the fall, the pair briefly can grow up to resistance 1.0900;
- if you talk about the future of GBP/USD, the graphical analysis on all time-frames says that earlier in the week the couple must rise to the level of 1.4800, and then some 100 ÷ 150 points higher, and then it will rush down - to the minimum of April 2015 - 1.4555. However, this fall is not expected until mid-January;
- for the pair USD/JPY both indicators and graphical analysis on H4 gently hint at a certain advantage of the "bears." According to their readings, the pair will continue to move south, but this movement will be very insignificant - up to 119.70 support. The main resistance level will be 120.40;
- as for the USD/CHF, it is clear that all the indicators look exclusively at the top. If you talk about the readings of the graphical analysis, they predict the growth of the pair to a height of 1.0070 at the beginning of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
