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Research Team at ANZ, expects the RBNZ to leave the OCR at 2.75%, a view that puts us out of consensus.
Key Quotes
“The crux of our view is simply that the economy is clearly improving and the terms of trade hit is less dire than the RBNZ assumed. Uncertainty surrounds the flow-on from this into inflation, with structural and cyclical factors intertwined, and the NZD’s recent surge complicates things further. But we simply favour waiting for more clarity on the inflation and global front. We expect the Statement to indicate a preparedness to ease policy further if required.”
Key Quotes
“The crux of our view is simply that the economy is clearly improving and the terms of trade hit is less dire than the RBNZ assumed. Uncertainty surrounds the flow-on from this into inflation, with structural and cyclical factors intertwined, and the NZD’s recent surge complicates things further. But we simply favour waiting for more clarity on the inflation and global front. We expect the Statement to indicate a preparedness to ease policy further if required.”
