Intra-Day Fundamentals - Non-Farm Payrolls: scenarios and trading ideas

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Non-Farm Payrolls: scenarios and trading ideas

4 December 2015, 12:20
Sergey Golubev
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As we are going to have USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event today so The Royal Bank of Scotland made fundamental forecast related to this news event with the connection with the most attractive pairs to trade in any situation concerning the actual data for NFP for example. And just to remind: if actual data for NFP > forecast (200K for now) so it will be good for currency (US dollar will become more stronger).

The are 3 main scenarios for NFP:

1. Actual data is 225k and above (with 200K forecasting ones): The most attractive pair to trade in this case is AUD/USD: the strong case with Australian dollar will be finsihed and we can consider for this pair to be in more bearish market condition.
Sell AUD/USD. 



2. Actual data is 150-225k. This data is something to be around 200K forecasting so we should consider the ranging market condition for most of the pairs. The only pair may be attractive to trade is GBP/USD which will be stapped with secondary ranging in intra-day for good breakdown possibilities.
Sell GBP/USD.



3. 150k and below. As we know - the long-term projections for EUR/USd is the bearish market condition. But this is the opposite short- term situation when actual data for NFP is less than forecasting 200K: EUR/USd price will be going to be more bullish in intraday basis.
Short-term: Buy EUR/USD.
Long-term: Sell EUR/USD.
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