Valeria
Bednarik>, chief analyst at FXStreet noted a positive back drop
in the ADP report ahead of Nonfarm
Payrolls and gives a forecasting analyses of
EUR/USD.
Key Quotes:
"The ADP private survey
released this Wednesday provided a first positive insight into the upcoming
employment report as, according to it, the private sector managed to add 182,000
new jobs against market's expectations of 180K. September data, however, was
revised lower, from 200K to 190K.
Anyway and for this Friday, we are
expecting the country to announce 180,000 new jobs added in October, whilst the
unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.1%. Wages, which were a huge
disappointment last month, are expected to have ticked higher. Given the
positive tone of the greenback in the last few weeks, an upward surprise should
see the American currency rallying further, but it will take something above
220K and no downward reviews of previous readings to fuel hopes that the FED
will act in December.
That the EUR/USD pair bearish trend is quite
clear, after the latest Central Banks' meeting highlighted the imbalances
between the ECB and the FED, and the Nonfarm Payroll report can exacerbate the
dominant trend if the readings beat expectations. Should the pair maintain the
current levels ahead of the news, the critical support to follow for a
longer-term breakout confirmation will be 1.0818, May 27th daily low. A weekly
close below the level should open doors for a continued decline towards the
1.0650 region during the following days, whilst below this last, a retest of the
year low around 1.0460 is likely. A downward surprise on the other hand can
boost the pair up to 1.1000, but selling interest will likely surge on
approaches to the critical psychological figure, maintaining the upside
limited."
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