Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 7 - 11, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Though EURUSD consolidated for the most part last week, the bias on the market is bearish as bullish pressure has seriously waned. This pair consolidated to the downside and might reach the support lines at 1.1100 or even 1.1050, but bulls will make desperate efforts to push price higher this week with a high probability of success. Any movement above the resistance line at 1.1350 will indicate that bulls have achieved their aim and, should EUR gain enough strength this week then the effect will be noticed on other EUR pairs.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF went up 150 pips last week before running into a barrier at the 0.9750 resistance level, and bulls made several abortive attempts to break that barrier before the market closed on Friday. For the bullish bias to maintain a degree of sense the 0.9750 level must be overcome and price needs to target the resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850. However, there are two possible obstacles to consider: (1) Any rally on EURUSD could send USDCHF south. (2) If CHF gains enough strength (which is possible this month) then USDCHF will experience some difficulties going forward.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since August 25, this market has dropped by 630 pips following a test of the distribution territory at 1.5800. Price is now close to the accumulation territory at 1.5150 but could even reach the accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5050. However, the market looks oversold so, while the aforementioned accumulation territories could be reached, a serious rally would not be a surprise (if it happens) this week. It should be noted that movements of GBPUSD (and other GBP pairs) will be significant this month - regardless of direction.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY went down over 230 pips last week to close at 118.97 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, so the trend ought to continue and price could reach the demand levels at 118.50 and 118.00 this week if JPY is able to maintain its current strength versus USD; otherwise a bullish breakout is possible.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There was a strong bearish movement on this cross last week as price dropped from the supply zone at 136.00 to the demand zone at 132.50 - a movement of 350 pips. The move now looks over-extended, but that does not rule out additional bearish movement this week, though the possibility of a strong breakout to the upside before the end of the week is also possible.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“When you make an unshakable commitment to a way of life, you put yourself way ahead of most others in the race for success. Why? Because most people have a natural tendency to over-estimate what they can achieve in the short run and under-estimate what they can accomplish over the long haul. They think they have made a commitment, but when they run into difficulty, they lose steam or quit. Most people get interested in trading but few make a real commitment. The difference between interest and commitment is the will not to give up. When you truly commit to something, you have no alternative but success. Getting interested will get you started, but commitment gets you to the finish line.” - Mark Minervini (a legendary trader)

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