Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (June 29 - July 3, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Because of current events in the Eurozone, EUR pairs may well open with gaps this week and, if so, they will harbinger great volatility for the rest of the week. EURUSD trended downwards in the beginning of last week then moved sideways until Friday. The bias is bearish, and a bearish breakout is possible at the end of the current sideways movement. The likely breakout will be when the support line at 1.1150 is broken. Price would then target the support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000, however, movement above the resistance line at 1.1300 would render this expectation invalid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair trended upwards at the beginning of last week, but moved sideways until Friday. The bias is bullish and a bullish breakout is possible this week if the sanguine bulls keep price moving upward. The breakout would be on a breach of the resistance level at 0.9400 and would then target the resistance levels at 0.9450 and 0.9500. On the other hand, a movement below the resistance line at 0.9200 will make this possibility unrealistic.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable dropped roughly 200 pips last week – a threat to the extant bullish bias. Price then entered an equilibrium phase through to the close of the market on Friday, June 26, 2015. There is now a very high probability that this market (and most other GBP pairs) will become seriously weak from this week through the first half of July 2015. The current bullish bias will remain valid only as long as price stays above the accumulation territory at 1.5650.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This trading instrument is currently consolidating. Price is primarily oscillating between the supply level at 124.50 and the demand level at 122.50. Price would normally be expected to eventually break one of those levels, paving way for a sustained trending move and probability suggests a strong southward movement is very possible during July.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Just as with EURUSD, this cross first trended downwards last week before moving sideways. Whatever happens to the Euro (such as gaps, strong movement, etc.), will have a similar impact on this cross. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and a strong bearish trend is probable in July.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“When you trade from a carefree state of mind, everything about your trading changes. Remember, that the primary skill that we are talking about here is simply trading without fear. This is a trading skill. It is the primary trading skill that you will have to acquire to create consistency – to trade without fear.” - Mark Douglas

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