When earlier this month China issued its data on the first-quarter growth, the 7% figure - the worst in six years - spurred concerns over the deepening slowdown. However, it also left many analysts doubtful about the trustworthiness of China's own statistics.
According to Citibank, growth is likely overstated. The bank concluded that China's actual quarterly growth could be below 6% year to year, depending on the factors weighed. Other research firms estimate the growth was even weaker, with Capital Economics pegging the quarter at 4.9%, the Conference Board's China Center at 4% and Lombard Street Research at 3.8%.
There are several reasons why economists try to discern China's true figures.
There are none of the sharp gyrations in China's numbers which can be seen in the U.S. or other economies. The methodology often appears contradictory. It is also hard to understand how China accounts for inflation when tabulating its gross domestic product.
Analysts also see the discrepancy between headline GDP growth and industrial production, often seen as a proxy for growth, which grew by 5.6% year to year in March - its lowest level since late 2008. This came amid weaker recent readings for electricity consumption, investment, industrial profits, manufacturing output and real-estate investment, among others.
Premier Li Keqiang backed this dissecting of the official growth numbers. Back in 2007, being Communist Party chief of northeastern Liaoning province he criticized the country's GDP numbers calling them "man-made and therefore unreliable". He said he found electricity output, rail cargo and bank loans more trustworthy, according to the memo released by the U.S. ambassador at the time, later released by WikiLeaks, which has since inspired financial institutions to create their own versions.
While China is hardly alone among emerging countries in releasing questionable statistics, Beijing has come under particular scrutiny because of the size and importance of its economy. Moreover, defects in the statistics are believed to be caused willingly rather than due to data-collection problems common to India and other developing countries.
As China's economy switches from heavy manufacturing, the Bureau of National Statistics has struggled to better reflect the growth contribution from services and consumption over production, the traditional focus, economists say. And it has tried to rely less on data from local officials with an interest in inflating growth to secure promotions. Still, the bureau doesn't explain its methodology or inflation assumptions and many of its calculations are hard to trace.
Currently there are two main questions on the matter: How willful is the fabrication,
and does China have a second set of books so leaders know what's really going on with the economy?
Economic growth in China as in a one-party state takes on oversize importance as a way to prevent social instability that could loosen the party's grip on power. At the same time, it needs accurate information to plan and even route subsidies to groups that could fuel dissent. But so far, most economists agree that 7% growth is the figure far from the reality.
