Ultra Confluence MT4
- インディケータ
- バージョン: 1.0
- アクティベーション: 20
Ultra Confluence is a trend indicator for MetaTrader 4 built around a trailing stop that picks its own width. A normal SuperTrend uses one ATR multiplier forever. This one runs nine of them side by side (1.0 to 5.0 in steps of 0.5), keeps score of how each has been doing, sorts them into three groups with k-means clustering on every bar, and trails price with the average multiplier of the best group. Around it sit an ATR-based Ichimoku cloud, a liquidity and sentiment volume profile, volume-coloured candles and swing labels with the candle pattern at each pivot.
On 10,001 hourly gold bars (March 2025 to November 2026) the multiplier it chose went all the way from 1.0 to 5.0, with a median of 2.75. So it really does move, and it moves on its own.
What's different from a plain SuperTrend
| What you want | What a fixed SuperTrend does | What Ultra Confluence does |
|---|---|---|
| A stop width that suits the current market | One multiplier you guessed once | Picks it every bar from the best-performing group of nine |
| Know how much to trust a flip | Every arrow looks the same | Prints a 0-10 score next to each flip |
| Room for a pullback | Tightens every bar, so pullbacks stop you out | Only tightens while the previous close is on the trend side of the Tenkan line |
| Context around the line | Nothing | Cloud, volume profile, liquidity zones, swing labels |
The third row is the one nobody tells you about, so here's what it means in practice. In a downtrend the stop only steps down while the previous close sits below the Tenkan. Once price closes back above it, the stop is rebuilt from scratch and can jump up, away from price. On EURUSD H4 it did exactly that on 14-15 October 2026, going from 1.12223 to 1.13595 in a day, 137 pips looser. On gold H1 the stop backed away on 2,490 of the 9,892 bars that were inside a trend, about one bar in four.
That's good if you want to stay in a trend through a pullback. If you were planning to use the line as a hard stop loss, you need to know it can move against you.
What it draws
Adaptive trailing stop + signals (on). The line, an arrow when it flips, and a score next to it. Two extra lines are off by default: a smoothed copy of the stop coloured by whether the Tenkan is above or below it, and an adaptive moving average (TRAMA, 52) that speeds up when price makes new 52-bar highs or lows.
ATR Ichimoku (Tenkan on, the rest off). Tenkan, Kijun and Span B aren't midpoints of high/low here. Each is the middle of the range an ATR trailing stop has covered (9 x 3, 26 x 6, 52 x 9 ATR), so they step instead of wobbling. Only the Tenkan is shown by default, because it decides when the stop may tighten. Kijun with the cross dots, the cloud (2 bars forward) and the Chikou (2 bars back) each have their own switch.
Liquidity sentiment profile (on). On the last 333 bars by default: a volume profile and a buy-minus-sell profile next to it. Switch on the liquidity zones and the thin-volume rows get shaded across the range as buyside (above the busiest row) or sellside (below it) liquidity.
Volume candles (MT5, off). Candles are shaded by tick volume against its own 9-bar volume-weighted average, six shades per direction. The wicks turn teal or purple depending on whether today's running volume is rising or falling versus the last three days at the same hour.
Swing labels (on). HH, LH, HL, LL on 52/52 pivots, plus the candle pattern at that pivot when there is one (hammer, inverted hammer, engulfing, hanging man, shooting star). Hover a label for a one-line description.
Retracement fans (off). Highest and lowest close of the last 900 bars with levels at .163, .333, .432, .639 and .963. Those aren't Fibonacci ratios. I've kept them because they're part of the tool, but I've got no evidence they work better than the usual ones, so treat them as rough zones.
It doesn't draw order blocks or fair value gaps, it doesn't give TP levels, and it doesn't place trades.
Reading the score
The number next to each flip is the best group's recent performance divided by the average bar move, times ten. It isn't a probability. On gold H1 the 108 flips scored like this: 46 got a 0, 26 a 1, 12 a 2, 15 a 3, and only 9 scored 4 or more (the highest was 6). A 0 means even the best multipliers weren't making progress, which is pretty much what a range looks like. The EURUSD H4 sell on 16 September 2026 scored 5 and was followed by a 359-pip fall, but one example proves nothing, so I'd use the score to skip the 0s, not to size up on the 5s.
Settings
Out of the box you get the stop with its scores, the Tenkan, the volume profile and the swing labels. Everything else is one switch in the inputs: Kijun, cloud, Chikou, liquidity zones, volume candles, TRAMA, the smoothed stop, the retracement fans and the cluster table.
| Setting | Default | What it does | When to change it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factor Range | 1 to 5 | Lowest and highest ATR multiplier tried | Narrow it if the stop is too loose or too tight overall |
| Step | 0.5 | Gap between multipliers (9 lines at default) | Smaller = more lines, slower |
| Performance Memory | 33 | How many bars each line's score remembers | Lower reacts faster |
| From Cluster | Best | Which group drives the stop | Average gives a calmer line |
| Historical Bars Calculation | 10000 | Bars the clustering runs on | Lower if loading is slow |
| Anchor Period | Fixed Range (333) | Window of the volume profile | Day / Week / Swing High for session profiles |
| Swing length | 52 | Pivot size for the HH/LL labels | 10-20 for intraday swings |
Alerts for flips and Tenkan/Kijun crosses go to popup, phone, email and on MT5 Telegram. They're off by default and wait for the bar to close.
What this version can't do
The profile and the fans are drawn to the right of the last bar, so switch on chart shift or you'll only see their edge (MT4 especially). Swing labels show up 52 bars after the pivot, because that's how long the pivot needs to be confirmed. There's no stop before the last 10,000 bars. MT4 can't colour candles, so the volume candles and wicks are MT5 only; the MT4 cloud is drawn with thin vertical lines.
You won't find a win rate table here, and I'd be careful with any indicator listing that has one.
Questions you'll have
Does Ultra Confluence repaint? Closed bars don't change. The stop and the arrow are calculated on the forming bar too, so a flip can appear and disappear before the close, like any trailing stop. Alerts wait for the close by default, and swing labels are only drawn from closed bars.
Why did the trailing stop move away from price? The previous close went to the wrong side of the Tenkan line, so the stop was rebuilt at today's distance instead of tightening. It happens on about a quarter of trend bars on gold H1.
What does the number next to the arrow mean? It's the best group's performance against the average bar move, times ten. 0 means nothing was trending. It's not a win probability.
What are the best settings for Ultra Confluence? I've only looked at the defaults on gold H1, gold H4, EURUSD H1 and EURUSD H4, so I'd start there and change Factor Range and From Cluster first.
Is there an MT5 version? Yes, listed separately as Ultra Confluence. It calculates the same values bar for bar and adds the volume candles, the coloured wicks, a filled cloud and Telegram alerts, which MT4 can't draw.
Can an EA read the signals? Yes. Buy and sell arrows, direction, the score and the chosen multiplier all have their own buffers: 28, 29, 30, 31 and 32 on MT5, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16 on MT4.
Support
Send me a private message here on MQL5 with a screenshot, the symbol and the timeframe. Updates are free.
Analysis tool. It places no trades and makes no profitability claim. Past price behaviour is not a guide to future price behaviour.
