【Technical Analysis】18 August 2026
■ Summary
The main themes are Australian dollar strength, euro strength, bullish daily charts in yen crosses, and higher oil prices.
AUD/USD is strongly bullish across all timeframes, making it the clearest strong dollar pair. EUR/USD is also strong in the short term and on the daily chart, indicating that the dollar-selling trend remains in place.
GBP/USD, however, is strongly bullish on the daily chart but bearish from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart. Sterling, which had been strong previously, is now seeing a short-term correction.
USD/JPY has risen to 159.63, but the 5-minute and 15-minute charts are bearish, the hourly chart is strongly bullish, and the daily chart is neutral. Intervention concerns are likely to increase in the upper 159 range, requiring caution against chasing higher prices.
Among yen crosses, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and CAD/JPY are strong on the hourly and daily charts, confirming continued yen-selling pressure. However, GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY are seeing short-term selling, so short-term corrections are also visible across yen crosses.
WTI crude oil has risen to 84.11 and remains bullish on the hourly and daily charts. Gold and silver are strongly bullish on the daily charts but strongly bearish from the short term through the hourly chart, indicating corrections at elevated levels. Natural gas remains weak through the daily chart, favoring sell-on-rebounds strategies.
Equity indices including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DAX, and Nikkei Average remain bullish on the daily charts, but short-term and hourly selling is prominent. This is a correction within the broader equity uptrend.
■ Currency Markets
USD/JPY: 159.63
The 5-minute chart is strongly bearish, the 15-minute chart is bearish, the hourly chart is strongly bullish, and the daily chart is neutral.
USD/JPY has risen into the upper 159 range, with the hourly chart showing continued dollar buying and yen selling.
However, short-term selling is emerging and the daily chart is neutral. The broader picture is not yet a clear one-directional USD/JPY uptrend, while upside resistance is likely to become more relevant in the upper 159 range.
The 159 range is also a level where intervention concerns are likely to arise. Rather than chasing the upside, it is preferable to wait for a short-term pullback or assess whether selling rebounds becomes appropriate once the upside becomes heavier.
USD/CHF: 0.8118
The 5-minute chart is strongly bearish, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is strongly bullish, and the daily chart is bullish.
Short-term selling is visible, while dollar buying remains on the hourly and daily charts. Like USD/JPY, short- and medium-term directions are divided.
For long positions, it is preferable to wait for short-term selling to settle and confirm a return to bullish signals.
EUR/USD: 1.1575
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bullish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is strongly bullish.
Euro buying and dollar selling remain in place. Although hourly momentum has paused, short-term and daily charts are strong, making EUR/USD a potential buy-on-dips candidate.
Rather than chasing highs, it is preferable to wait for a short-term correction and confirmation that the hourly chart has turned bullish again.
GBP/USD: 1.3529
The 5-minute chart is bearish, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, and the daily chart is strongly bullish.
Daily sterling strength remains intact, but the short term through the hourly chart is clearly correcting. The previous strong sterling rally has paused, leaving short-term selling rebounds favored.
However, with the daily chart still strongly bullish, GBP/USD remains a broader buy-on-dips candidate. New buying should be approached cautiously until short-term selling subsides.
AUD/USD: 0.7105
The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are all strongly bullish.
This is one of the strongest currency pairs in the current market. Australian dollar buying and dollar selling are very clear, with direction fully aligned from the short term through the daily chart.
Buying on dips remains favored.
NZD/USD: 0.5880
The 5-minute chart is strongly bullish, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is strongly bearish, and the daily chart is strongly bullish.
Daily NZD buying remains in place, but hourly selling is strong. Compared with AUD/USD, NZD/USD is considerably less stable.
AUD/NZD is strongly bullish on both the hourly and daily charts. Within Oceania currencies, the Australian dollar is clearly outperforming the New Zealand dollar.
■ Yen Crosses
Yen crosses are broadly bullish on the daily charts but are seeing short-term corrections.
The strongest setups are:
● AUD/JPY
● CAD/JPY
● EUR/JPY
● NZD/JPY on the daily chart
AUD/JPY: 113.42
The 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strongly bullish. Together with AUD/USD, this confirms the strength of Australian dollar buying.
CAD/JPY: 115.13
The hourly and daily charts are strongly bullish. Short-term charts are strongly bearish, but the broader trend remains bullish.
EUR/JPY: 184.77
The 5-minute chart is strongly bearish, while the hourly and daily charts are strongly bullish. Short-term correction is conflicting with the daily yen-selling trend.
GBP/JPY: 215.96
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish. The broader trend remains strong, but short-term profit-taking is visible.
NZD/JPY: 93.86
The 5-minute chart is strongly bullish, the hourly chart is strongly bearish, and the daily chart is strongly bullish. With short-term and hourly charts pointing in opposite directions, the outlook is somewhat complicated.
CHF/JPY: 196.64
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are bearish, the hourly chart is bullish, and the daily chart is neutral. Strength is comparatively limited among yen crosses.
EUR/GBP: 0.8556
The 5-minute chart is bullish, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bullish, and the daily chart is bearish.
The euro is rebounding against sterling from the short term through the hourly chart. However, daily selling remains in place, so the longer-term sterling advantage has not fully broken down.
The current picture is short-term buying, while the daily chart still favors caution toward selling rebounds.
■ Commodity Markets
Gold: 4,389.09
Gold Futures: 4,444.72
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
The broader gold rally remains intact, but clear short-term profit-taking is underway. This appears to be a correction within the uptrend near the $4,400 highs.
The daily chart favors buying, but chasing higher prices should be avoided until short-term selling eases.
Silver: 64.9000
Silver Futures: 65.007
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is bullish or strongly bullish.
Like gold, silver remains strong on the daily chart but is correcting in the short term. Precious metals retain their broader uptrend, but short-term selling pressure is strong, making it preferable to wait for reversal confirmation before buying.
WTI Crude Oil: 84.11
The 5-minute chart is strongly bearish, the 15-minute chart is bearish, the hourly chart is bullish, and the daily chart is strongly bullish.
The daily oil uptrend remains intact. Oil strength stands out in the energy market after the rise into the $84 range.
However, short-term selling is appearing, indicating a correction at elevated levels. For long positions, it is preferable to target a pullback after short-term selling subsides.
Natural Gas: 2.702
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bearish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
Both the short-term and daily charts are weak, in clear contrast to crude oil. Within energy markets, the divergence between buying oil and selling natural gas is distinct.
Selling rebounds remains favored.
BTC/USD: 64,157
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bearish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is bullish.
The daily chart remains bullish, but short-term selling is strong. Conditions have improved slightly from the previous weakness, but this is not yet a market to chase higher.
For long positions, wait for short-term selling to ease and for the hourly chart to return to a bullish signal.
■ Equity Markets
U.S. Equities
The Dow Jones is trading at 53,459.78.
The 5-minute chart is bearish, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, and the daily chart is bullish.
The daily trend remains bullish, but short-term and hourly correction is strong.
The S&P 500 is trading at 7,745.06.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
The daily uptrend remains intact, but clear profit-taking is emerging from the short term through the hourly chart.
The NASDAQ 100 is trading at 29,995.38.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bearish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is strongly bullish.
Technology stocks remain strong on the daily chart but are seeing short-term selling. U.S. equities remain bullish in the broader trend but are currently correcting.
European Equities
The DAX is trading at 26,233.89.
The 5-minute chart is bullish, the 15-minute chart is bearish, the hourly chart is strongly bearish, and the daily chart is bullish.
The daily chart remains supported, but weakness is emerging on the hourly chart.
The UK 100 is trading at 10,714.76.
The 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is bearish. It is among the weaker European indices.
The CAC 40 is trading at 8,534.77.
The 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is bearish. Like the UK 100, it is in the weaker group among European equities.
Japanese Equities
The Nikkei Average is trading at 67,521.00.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
The daily chart remains strongly bullish, but short-term and hourly charts are correcting sharply. Profit-taking is occurring at elevated levels, and confirmation of short-term stabilization is needed before considering new long positions.
■ Strength Ranking
S Rank
AUD/USD
EUR/USD
EUR/CHF
AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY on the daily chart
WTI crude oil on the daily chart
A Rank
GBP/USD on the daily chart
NZD/USD on the daily chart
EUR/JPY on the daily chart
GBP/JPY on the daily chart
NZD/JPY on the daily chart
AUD/NZD on the daily chart
B Rank
BTC on the daily chart
NASDAQ 100 on the daily chart
S&P 500 on the daily chart
Nikkei Average on the daily chart
Gold on the daily chart
Silver on the daily chart
■ Weakness Ranking
S Rank
XAU/USD in the short term
XAG/USD in the short term
Gold futures in the short term
Silver futures in the short term
Natural gas
S&P 500 in the short term
Nikkei Average in the short term
A Rank
Dow Jones in the short term
NASDAQ 100 in the short term
UK 100
CAC 40
GBP/USD in the short term
CHF/JPY in the short term
B Rank
USD/JPY in the short term
EUR/JPY in the short term
GBP/JPY in the short term
CAD/JPY in the short term
BTC in the short term
WTI crude oil in the short term
■ Market Theme
The main themes are Australian dollar strength, euro strength, higher oil prices, and short-term corrections in equity indices.
AUD/USD is strongly bullish across all timeframes, confirming very clear Australian dollar strength. EUR/USD is also strong in the short term and on the daily chart, showing that the dollar-selling trend remains in place.
GBP/USD is strongly bullish on the daily chart but strongly bearish from the short term through the hourly chart, indicating a correction after its previous sterling rally.
USD/JPY is trading in the upper 159 range. While hourly buying remains in place, short-term selling is emerging. With intervention concerns likely at these levels, direction should be assessed cautiously.
Many yen crosses remain strong on the daily charts, but short-term selling is also visible, suggesting that the return of yen selling is pausing.
WTI crude oil remains strongly bullish on the daily chart. Gold and silver are also strong on the daily charts but are seeing strong selling from the short term through the hourly chart, indicating corrections near elevated levels.
Equities in the United States, Europe, and Japan are also seeing short-term corrections. Some indices retain daily-chart buying momentum, but profit-taking is prominent from the short term through the hourly chart.
■ Trading Strategy
Bullish Bias
AUD/USD
EUR/USD
EUR/CHF
AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY on the daily chart
WTI crude oil on the daily chart
Potential Buy-on-Dips Candidates
GBP/USD on the daily chart
NZD/USD on the daily chart
EUR/JPY on the daily chart
GBP/JPY on the daily chart
NZD/JPY on the daily chart
AUD/NZD on the daily chart
Gold on the daily chart
Silver on the daily chart
Potential Sell-on-Rebounds Candidates
XAU/USD in the short term
XAG/USD in the short term
Gold futures in the short term
Silver futures in the short term
Natural gas
S&P 500 in the short term
Nikkei Average in the short term
Dow Jones in the short term
NASDAQ 100 in the short term
■ Instruments Requiring Caution
USD/JPY is in the upper 159 range. The hourly chart is strongly bullish, but short-term selling is emerging. As intervention concerns are also likely at this level, caution is needed against chasing higher prices.
AUD/USD is strongly bullish across all timeframes. Australian dollar buying is clear, but after the recent rise, confirmation of a pullback is preferable to entering at elevated levels.
Gold and silver are strongly bullish on the daily charts but strongly bearish from the short term through the hourly chart. They remain broader buy-on-dips candidates, but caution is needed until short-term selling subsides.
WTI crude oil is strongly bullish on the daily chart but is seeing short-term selling. The $84 range is elevated, making confirmation of renewed upside after a pullback important.
Some equity indices remain bullish on the daily charts, but short-term and hourly selling is strengthening. Confirmation of a short-term reversal is needed before considering long positions.
■ Summary
The current market is centered on Australian dollar strength, euro strength, higher oil prices, and short-term corrections in equity indices.
The strongest instruments are AUD/USD, EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY on the daily chart, and WTI crude oil on the daily chart.
In contrast, short-term gold, short-term silver, natural gas, short-term S&P 500, short-term Nikkei Average, short-term Dow Jones, and short-term NASDAQ 100 are weak and remain vulnerable to selling rebounds.
Overall, the market favors buying pullbacks in the strong Australian dollar, euro, EUR/CHF, and daily-chart oil, while considering selling rebounds in weak short-term precious metals, natural gas, and short-term equity indices.
