分析と予測

Twisted Market: Stocks Surge While USD/JPY Stalls | Middle East Risks and Intervention Fears Keep 157–158 in Focus

7 5月 2026, 11:13
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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Twisted Market: Stocks Surge While USD/JPY Stalls | Middle East Risks and Intervention Fears Keep 157–158 in Focus

■ Market Overview

Global equity markets remain firmly risk-on.

  • S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 hit new record highs
  • Nikkei 225 surged more than 3,000 points
  • Korean equities also reached fresh highs

→ AI-related momentum continues to drive a global equity rally.

However, the FX market remains highly nervous.

  • Middle East tensions
  • Japanese intervention concerns

→ USD/JPY continues to face resistance in the 157–158 zone.

■ FX Movement

  • Dollar Index: 98.05 → 97.84
  • Falling oil prices → renewed dollar selling pressure

→ Safe-haven dollar buying has partially unwound.

Still, USD/JPY continues to attract dip buyers around the 155 zone.

■ Core Market Structure

“Bullish stocks, cautious FX.”

  • Equities → AI-driven optimism
  • FX → unstable due to intervention risk and geopolitical uncertainty

→ There is a significant divergence in market sentiment across asset classes.

■ Middle East & Oil

  • Axios reports boosted peace expectations
  • Oil prices softened

However:

  • The Iran issue remains unresolved

→ Middle East risk has eased, but not disappeared.

■ Key Focus (Critical)

  • Battle within the 155–158 USD/JPY range
  • Upcoming US-China summit next week
  • Visit of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Japan
  • Tomorrow’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report

→ Markets are waiting for the next major directional catalyst.

■ Scenarios

① Peace expectations continue

→ Oil declines further
→ Dollar selling pressure continues
→ USD/JPY remains heavy

② Intervention pressure intensifies

→ 157 area capped again
→ Stronger yen pressure

③ Oil rebounds

→ Yen weakness returns
→ Risk of upside breakout from the range

■ Strategy Points

  • 157–158 remains a danger zone
  • Rising stocks alone are not enough to justify aggressive yen-selling
  • Keep positions lighter ahead of payrolls data

■ Summary

The current market is:

“Stocks are strong, but USD/JPY cannot rise freely.”

  • Middle East uncertainty and intervention fears continue to weigh on the pair
  • The market is searching for the catalyst that breaks the current range

→ The key remains:

Finding the trigger for the next breakout move


#Nasdaq, 100