USD Selling Accelerates on End-of-War Expectations, But Ongoing Conflict Risk Remains — Market May Shift Again Depending
USD Selling Accelerates on End-of-War Expectations,
But Ongoing Conflict Risk Remains — Market May Shift Again Depending on Oil
The market has entered a dual-structure phase:
👉 “End-of-war expectations” vs “ongoing conflict reality”
Following Trump’s remarks suggesting an early resolution:
- Oil declined
- Equities rose
- Yields fell
- USD weakened
However:
⚠️ The situation is far from resolved
→ Optimism remains limited
■ Geopolitics (Most Important)
Current situation:
- Tanker attacks have resumed
- Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue
- Additional US carrier deployment
- Ongoing Israeli strikes
👉 Conclusion: Militarily, escalation continues
Key Insight
- Politics → moving toward resolution
- Military → continuing / escalating
👉 This gap is the core driver of market instability
■ FX Market
USD
- Dollar Index declining:
99.88 → 99.41
👉 Unwinding of crisis-driven USD buying
Technical:
- Broke below key moving averages
👉 Signal of a potential short-term trend shift
USD/JPY
- Heavy upside
Drivers:
- USD weakness
- Intervention risk
👉 Double pressure limiting upside
EUR / GBP
- Rebounding on USD weakness
- However, gains remain limited
■ Oil (Key Driver)
- Fell below $100
- Remains soft today
👉 Pricing in end-of-war expectations
However:
⚠️ Real supply risk remains elevated
Core Logic
- Oil ↓ → USD selling continues
- Oil ↑ → USD buying resumes
👉 Oil is the trigger
■ Biggest Risk
Stagflation
- Persistently high oil prices
- Rising inflation
- Slowing growth
👉 Worst-case scenario is realistic
■ Key Data (US Focus)
- ADP Employment
- Retail Sales
- ISM Manufacturing
Expectations:
- Employment: slight slowdown
- Consumption: recovery
■ Market Environment
Current characteristics:
- Headline-driven
- Expectation-led
- Weak follow-through
👉 Moves on expectations, reverses on reality
■ Trading Perspective
❌ Avoid
- Fixed bias
- Long-term positioning
✅ Focus
- Short-term trading
- Oil-linked reactions
Key Monitoring Points
① Oil
② Trump statements
③ Military developments
■ Conclusion
The market is currently:
👉 “Early stage of end-of-war expectations”
However:
⚠️ Not confirmed
■ Final Insight (Core)
- USD is beginning to weaken
- But not yet breaking down
⚠️ Most Important
👉 This is the turning point:
“Pre-reversal phase” vs “false signal”
🎯 Strategy
- Avoid overtrading
- Keep positions light
- Stay reactive
👉 Flexibility is everything
