分析と予測

📊 Pre-Weekend Positioning Dominates, but Geopolitical Headlines Reignite Dollar Buying

20 3月 2026, 12:31
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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📊 Pre-Weekend Positioning Dominates, but Geopolitical Headlines Reignite Dollar Buying

■ Market Overview

Today’s FX market was primarily driven by pre-weekend position adjustments, but Middle East headlines triggered a renewed wave of dollar buying.

Although major central bank events have passed and the market lacks fresh catalysts, geopolitical risk remains the dominant driver.

■ FX Developments

USD

During the Asian session, price action was mainly corrective:

  • Rebound after the previous day’s dollar weakness

  • Position adjustments

👉 This was not driven by geopolitical factors initially.

However, in the London session:

  • Reports of Iran potentially seizing and blockading Kharg Island

triggered a renewed surge in dollar buying.

Major Currency Moves

  • USD/JPY: around 158.90

  • EUR/USD: around 1.1535

  • GBP/USD: around 1.3364

👉 Markets shifted back toward a stronger dollar bias

■ Oil & Yields

Oil prices initially stabilized but then resumed their upward move:

  • Asia session: around $94

  • London session: rose toward $97

This was accompanied by rising bond yields:

  • German 2-year yield: +6.5bp

  • Italian 2-year yield: +7bp

👉 Oil → yields → USD remains a clear chain reaction.

■ Geopolitics

The Middle East situation remains highly unstable:

  • Ongoing conflict: U.S. & Israel vs Iran

  • Hopes of avoiding ground escalation

  • Some signs of partial easing in the Strait of Hormuz

👉 Mixed signals are creating a repetitive pattern:

  • Tension easing → market correction

  • Tension escalation → dollar buying

■ Weekly Recap

This week featured a concentration of major central bank events:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia: Rate hike

  • Others (**Federal Open Market Committee, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, European Central Bank, SNB): Hold

Common theme:

  • Inflation concerns remain elevated

  • But policy changes are postponed

👉 Due to high uncertainty from geopolitical risks, central banks are avoiding aggressive action for now.

■ Market Structure

The current market flow is:

Geopolitics → Oil → Interest Rates → FX

In particular:

👉 Oil ↑ → Yields ↑ → USD ↑

This linkage remains very strong and consistent.

■ Market Environment

Current characteristics:

  • Pre-weekend position adjustments

  • Lack of clear direction due to limited new catalysts

  • Strong headline-driven volatility

Normally, this would result in a range-bound market, but:

👉 A single headline can quickly change direction

■ Economic Data & Events

Key Data

  • UK: Public sector net borrowing

  • Germany: PPI

  • Eurozone: Current account, trade balance

  • Canada: Retail sales

Events

  • Speech by Joachim Nagel (Bundesbank President)

  • EU Leaders Summit (final day)

  • Weekend: Comments from Jerome Powell (limited impact expected)

■ Trading Perspective

The current market is a mix of:

👉 “Correction phase + geopolitical headline-driven market”

Key characteristics:

  • Range-bound baseline

  • Sudden directional moves on news

  • Strong correlation with oil and yields

Especially for USD/JPY:

👉 The battle below 160 is likely to continue
👉 Volatility risk remains high

■ Summary

Although this is typically a pre-weekend consolidation phase, geopolitical tensions are keeping the market unstable.

The market is highly dependent on:

  • Oil

  • Interest rates

  • Headlines

👉 Short-term price action is likely to remain volatile.

Rather than forcing a directional bias:

Flexibility and reaction to news flow will be key.


#Kharg, Island