✅ FX Option Flow Summary (December 11)

📌 EUR/USD

• 1.1800 (EUR 2.20bn)

• 1.1710 (EUR 1.39bn)

• 1.1610 (EUR 4.59bn) ← Largest line

📌 USD/JPY

• 158.00 (USD 920mn)

• 156.00 (USD 1.24bn)

• 155.00 (USD 877mn)

📌 GBP/USD

• 1.3250 (GBP 326mn)

📌 USD/CHF

• 0.7960 (USD 650mn)

• 0.7900 (USD 653mn)

• 0.7800 (USD 451mn)

📌 USD/CAD

• 1.4000 (USD 1.05bn)

• 1.3950 (USD 1.18bn)

📌 AUD/USD

• 0.6750 (AUD 750mn)

• 0.6550 (AUD 1.90bn) ← Largest AUD line

📌 EUR/GBP

• 0.8875 (EUR 299mn)

• 0.8720 (EUR 260mn)

• 0.8580 (EUR 300mn)

FX options settle at the NY Cut (23:00 or 24:00 Japan time).
For example:

EUR/USD 1.1600 – EUR 4.5bn

means:

• Strike price = 1.1600

• Total notional of options (calls + puts) = EUR 4.5bn

• These options expire at the NY Cut

This is due to hedging by market makers and large dealers.

Example: EUR/USD has a huge option at 1.1600

When price approaches the strike:

• If EUR/USD rises → dealers sell to hedge

• If EUR/USD falls → dealers buy to hedge

This hedging flow creates:

✔ Lower volatility
✔ Price suppression
✔ Strong gravitational pull toward the strike
✔ A behavior known as option pinning

Large option strikes act as key intraday anchor levels.

For example:

EUR/USD – 1.1610 with EUR 4.59bn

→ Highly likely to become the center of gravity for the day.

Expect:

• Range-bound trading

• Slower movement until NY cut

• Even if price breaks, it often “snaps back” to the strike before expiry

• Massive options (≥ 5–10bn) dictate the market’s center of gravity

• Volatility tends to be suppressed until NY cut

• Breakouts often revert back to the strike (pinning effect)

• After NY cut:
  → dealer hedges unwind
  → price may finally extend the move

👉 Today, EUR/USD 1.1610 (EUR 4.59bn) is an unusually powerful “magnet level” and likely the most influential strike of the session.