Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil - page 2

To add comments, please log in or register
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  
  • If the price will break 44.89 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 40.53 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

The key level at 44.89 was broken to above so the bullish breakout was continuing (for H1 timeframe and same for H4 for example), and 45.83 is the new bullish level:


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories: Correction with 44.24 level as a target

2016-04-27 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 540.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels last week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7  million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.3 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels last week."

==========

Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown. The price broke 200 SMA/100 SMA reversal area to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. Price is breaking 45.67 support level for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with 44.24 as the nearest bearish target.



==========

Crude Oil H4: secondary correction within the primary bullish to be started. The price is on bullish condition with the secondary correction to be started on open H4 bar for now, with the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 46.83 resistance level located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 45.58 support level located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the secondary correction.

RSI indicator is estimating the correction to be continuing in the near future.

  • If the price will break 46.83 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 45.58 support on close H4 bar so the correction within the primary bullish trend will be continuing up to 44.24 as the nearest target in this case.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
46.8345.58
N/A44.24
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 45.58 support level on close bar for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch H4 price to break 46.83 support level on close bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : correction
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Analysis for Brent Crude Oil: intra-day bearish breakdown with secondary ranging; daily correction

H4 price is on breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price broke key support levels together with Senkou Span line to below for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition.

  • Chinkou Span line crossed the price to below for the breakdown to be continuing.
  • The price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the secondary ranging condition to be started.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be started in the near future.


Resistance
Support
46.37
44.60
48.25
44.24

If H4 price will break 44.24 support level on close bar so the bearish breakdown will be continuing without secondary ranging: the price will be fully reversed to the primary bearish market condition.
If H4 price will break 46.37 resistance level so the price will be reversed from the ranging bearish to the ranging bullish condition.
If H4 price will break 48.25 resistance level so the price will be reversed back to the primary bullish market condition to be out of the secondary ranging area.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

-

D1 price is on bullish condition located to be above Ichimoku cloud with the secondary correction to be started in the beginning of this month.

  • Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend.
  • The price is testing 44.24 support level to below for the correction to be continuing.
  • Bearish reversal level for the daily price is 37.25, and if the price breaks this level to below so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the correction to be continuing in the near future.


Resistance
Support
48.2544.24
N/A
37.25

If D1 price will break 44.24 support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 37.25 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 48.25 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

-
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.04 18:50

Crude Oil Intra-Day Price Action Analysis - breakdown with the bearish reversal in the near future

2016-05-04 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 543.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year."

==========

Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown reversal. The price broke 200 SMA/100 SMA to below to be reversed from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition. The price was bounced from 44.61 support level for the ranging bearish within 45.14 resistance and 44.61 levels waiting for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.


==========

Crude Oil H4: ranging bullish. The price is located above 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the bullosh condition and near 100 period SMA 9100 SMA) for the secondary ranging within 44.60 support level and 45.99 resistance level. The level for the bullish trend continuation without ranging is 48.25, and the level for the bearish reversal is 42.53 which is the value of 200 SMA for now.

  • If the price will break 48.25 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
  • If price will break 42.53 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
48.2544.60
N/A42.53
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 42.53 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 48.25 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.06 06:17

Crude Oil Forecast: daily bullish reversal, weekly bear market rally  (based on the article)


"The Support Zone in focus after Thursday’s blast-off is the Wednesday low at $43.20. Wednesday's low is above the next level of support by ~$0.70 barrel at $42.48, which is the April 26 low that printed before pushing up to $46.75 to close the month. Below $42.48, there could be a quick drop to the 200-DMA, which would take a strong move lower down to ~$40/bbl. Given the significance of the Intermarket factors that have shifted since Oil broke above $40/ 200-DMA, only a move below there would change my bullish model."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.11 16:43

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event:  intra-day bullish reversal with breakout and 46.83 resistance to be tested

2016-05-11 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.4 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil M5: bullish breakout. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA area from 45.24 to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition: price broke key levels for good breaking with 46.83 resistance to be tested for the intra-day bullish trend to be continuing.




Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  

The Crude Oil is continuing with the bullish breakout in intra-day basis: the key resistance level at 46.75 is going to be broken by the price to above for the breakout to be continuing and with 48.25 as the nearest bullish target to re-enter. Anyway, the bearish reversal level is 43.30, and if the price breaks this support level to below so the bearish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started.


If we look at the daily price so the price came to be very close to 30-day high at 48.25, and if this level will be broken by the price to above so we may see the daily bullish trend to be continuing.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  
The intra-day bullish breakout is continuing: the price is breaking intra-day resistance level at 47.27 to above for the breakout to be continuing.

48.25 key daily/weekly/monthly resistance level is the next target.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.13 10:03

The correlation between Dollar Index and Brent Crude Oil

There is good article describing the correlation between Dollar Index and Crude Oil so let's evaluation the situation related to those prices.


---------

Dollar Index Weekly Outlook: secondary correction within the primary bullish.
Weekly price is testing 93.01 support level for the correction to be continuing with 91.92 as the nearest target to re-enter. If the price breaks 1-year low at 86.88 so the bearish reversal will be started, otherwise the price will be on ranging within the primary bullish condition.

---------

Brent Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: secondary rally within the primary bearish.
Weekly price is testing 48.25 resistance level to above for the bear market rally to be continuing with 53.95 level as the nearest target to re-enter. If the price breaks 1-year low at 69.57 so the bullish reversal will be started, otherwise the price will be on ranging within the primary bearish condition.

---------

And for now - please look at those two charts below just to make an idea about the correlation between Dollar Index and Brent Crude Oil:




Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117067
Sergey Golubev  

Medium-Term Technical Analysis for Brent Crude Oil: weekly bullish reversal breakout or bearish ranging near reversal

Weekly price is on bearish condition located near below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is on secondary bear market rally by testing 48.25 resistance level for the secondary rally to be continuing with 53.95 bullish reversal resistancer level as the next nearest target.

  • If the price will break 53.95 resistance level on close weekly bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 37.25 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
48.2537.25
53.9527.08


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 37.25 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 53.95 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish ranging near bullish reversal levels
To add comments, please log in or register