Press review - page 445

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 17 pips range price movement

2016-10-20 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.0%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

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GBP/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD : Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2016-10-20 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

• past data is 12.8
• forecast data is 5.2
• actual data is 9.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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From official report:

"The index for current manufacturing activity in the region edged down, from a reading of 12.8 in September to 9.7 this month. The index has now been positive for three consecutive months (see Chart 1). Other broad indicators showed notable improvement. The new orders index improved markedly this month, increasing from 1.4 in September to 16.3 in October. The percentage of firms reporting increases in new orders this month rose to 40 percent from 30 percent last month. The current shipments index also improved, rising 24 points to 15.3. The delivery times, unfilled orders, and inventories indexes remained weak, however, with all registering negative readings, although they were less negative than in September."

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EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events

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USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)

• "A sharp rebound in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the Canadian dollar, but another downtick in the core rate of inflation may fuel the near-term rebound in USD/CAD as puts increased pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further support the real economy."
• "The BoC may continue to ‘actively’ discuss more stimulus for the real economy amid the ongoing adjustment to the oil price shock, and the central bank may reestablish its easing cycle over the coming months as Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. now anticipate the economy to reach full-capacity ‘materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July.’ In turn, USD/CAD may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year, but the BoC may preserve its current policy throughout the remainder of 2016 as the central bank argues the risks surrounding the inflation outlook are ‘roughly balanced.’"

Bullish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Rebounds in September

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade."
• "If market reaction favors a long loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."

Bearish CAD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Fall Short of Market Forecast

• "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short trade on USD/CAD."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."

Daily price is located near and above 200-day SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bullish market condition.

• If D1 price breaks 1.3306 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If price breaks 1.3005 support to below on close daily bar so we may see the bearish reversal of the daily price movement.
  
• If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 92 pips range price movement

2016-10-21 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

• "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in September, following a 1.1% gain in August."
• "Excluding gasoline, the CPI was up 1.5% year over year in September, after posting a 1.7% increase in August."
• "On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in September, after declining 0.1% in August."
• "In September, four major components increased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, while three declined. The shelter index was unchanged."

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index:

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USD/CAD M5: 92 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "Other fundamental fodder to move the rate view and/or the Dollar include a host of Fed speeches penciled in. The terms of this policy group’s tone is changing with remarks like those made by San Francisco Fed President John Williams who said they should have hiked in September and low rates can lead to a recession. Another indicator to keep tabs on is the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey. Both the headline and components are valuable forecasting for economic activity moving forward."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "The broader outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as it preserves the bearish trend carried over from the previous month, but the range-bound price action following the British Pound ‘flash crash’ may persist ahead of the key U.S./U.K. event risks as market participants weigh the diverging paths for monetary policy. Nevertheless, the recent development in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a larger recovery could be at hand as the oscillator breaks out of the near-term bearish formation and climbs out of oversold territory, and a break/close above 1.2360 (50% expansion) in the exchange rate may generate a larger correction as the weakness in the pound-dollar appears to be exhausted."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "Next week brings us such a data point: On Tuesday evening in the United States (Wednesday morning in Australia), 3rd quarter GDP will be released. Current expectations are looking for .5% Quarterly growth to go along with 1.1% annualized growth. Should this number come out above expectations, we’ll likely see some element of strength in the Aussie with a miss bringing weakness into the currency."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "The main economic data point for the week ahead is Monday’s Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, which will look to improve over July’s number of 0.3%. There will likely be a speech by PM Trudeau either over the weekend or early next week to discuss what the next steps will be for the trade negotiations with the European Union. He has already had stern words for the EU, and they’ll likely stay heated following Freeland’s experience in Belgium. The fundamental bent appears to remain bearish for the Canadian Economy until we see the homeland data start to pick-up beyond the recent employment surprise."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "In terms of Yuan’s recent losses against the U.S. Dollar, Ms. Wang said that it was driven by expectations of imminent Fed rate hike; it is normal for the Yuan to fluctuate in the short-term due to external factors and the moves are within ‘an explainable range’. Also, she told that China’s capital outflows have seen slowing down in September. Wang’s comments indicate that the Chinese regulator is less likely to draw a red line for Yuan rates in the near-term amid the Dollar advance. This means that the USD/CNH and the USD/CNY could set fresh highs over the following periods."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Highlighting the economic docket next week is the advanced read on U.S. 3Q GDP with consensus estimates calling for an annualized print of 2.5% q/q. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) will be of particular interest with market expectations calling for a slowdown to 1.6% q/q from 1.8% q/q. Keep in mind that this is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation and a softer than expected print could weigh on expectations for a 2016 rate hike. As is stands, Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 68% likelihood the central bank will hike in December. Look for advances in gold to remain limited as the prospect of higher interest rates weigh on demand for the yellow metal as a store of wealth."