EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 734
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I don't know... I'm inclined to correct 50% for now
to Helex
1.5 is cool - why? Falling below 1.47 is cool, it's more possible to go to 1.5 - everybody expects moves to the upside, so it's possible to go to tickle the nerves, to knock out stops, to grab a couple of orders to have enough for a beer with lobsters ...
To vic2008 it's clear - no one will tell you the range for the day :) but as food for thought...
I'm inclined to correct 50% for the time being
early, really early this couple is not that sharp to turn this way, in a crisis maybe. IMHO. Moreover, think about how many people realized over the weekend that the fall started and their brokers were whispered in their ears, etc. In general, as Copernicus used to say, history will judge us )))) Fire away.
My thoughts were here Thought #1 and Thought #2
My thoughts are that the range today is wide 1.4900 - 1.4500.
Assuming down, but if gold and oil go up in price then all past...
In my opinion the situation is like a yellow traffic light - "Attention", and a trend change for me is fixing below 1.47
I don't think the situation is a yellow traffic light - "Attention", and the trend change for me is fixing below 1.47.
and what do you mean by not sharp - 270 p.p./day is not sharp for the eurobucks?
Fibo comment
Posted 09:47 07.12.2009
Hello!
Well here we are, finally we've waited for the volatility. All week waited - waited and now we got it. EUR/USD collapsed more than 250 pips to support 1.4825 after the release of the US labor market news. And the USD/JPY rose to 90,74, also up almost 250 pips.
US jobs data was not as strong as expected. The unemployment rate was also below the forecast and better than the previous value. This data led to a massive closing of short positions in the dollar against all instruments. The Euro/Dollar decline intensified after stop orders were triggered to sell from 1.5000 and 1.4950.In other markets the DJ index ended the week slightly higher, although it traded sideways all week. Oil fluctuates near the peaks, but is hesitant to break them. It closed the week close to the support of the long-term uptrend. Gold, in contrast, managed to correct rising after testing a new high at $1226 per ounce. In Wall Street, the stock indices were flat, as optimism pushed the prices up irrespective of the economic news, be it good or bad, but the stock prices continued rising, although they corrected on Friday as well.
Informed sources report that Japanese officials have gone to the USA to ask permission to sell $100 billion worth of US treasury bonds. The budget deficit is enormous, so the Japanese want to use part of the reserves for domestic spending. This is the first swallow of a process that will eventually unfold across the board.
From the technical point of view, concerning EUR/USD, we might see the continuation of the decline to 1.4680 and further 1.4530 in case of the breakdown of the support at 1.4825. The reality indicates that after swift declines the price returns to the previous levels or even higher. This, in its turn, implies the rise of the pair to 1.5060 and higher to 1.5140. And if you take the long-term outlook, we can see that the uptrend reversal has not happened yet, though the support is under a serious pressure. It is interesting to look at the chart of the USD index as well. On the daily chart, the downtrend is firmly broken, which might indicate that the trend reverses or a double bottom is formed, and then the trend reverses to a stronger dollar. On a weekly chart it is more complicated and there is no certain breakdown of the downtrend. Therefore, this week we have to rely on a shorter term trading and breakdown of the well formed corridors.
The USD/JPY is also close to the resistance at 90.40, but the important level is 92.15. Support is 88.30.
The coming week may be marked by a trivial sideways movement at the levels reached.
Have a good day!
MFX FIBO Group analyst, Nersesov Michael
Strange, there are less forecasts today and no one is agitating for the tops...
Why, the cross resisted, but forex persuaded him.
Fibo comment
Posted 09:47 07.12.2009
Hello!
Well here we are, finally we've waited for the volatility. All week waited - waited and now we got it. EUR/USD collapsed more than 250 pips to support 1.4825 after the release of the US labor market news. The USD/JPY rose to 90,74, also up almost 250 pips.
No news doesn't determine shit, just this one as a starting point, everyone postpones the obvious until after the news, after the news act... Show me a working system based on the news, i.e. the news determines the further trend and I will shut up... Once in 2 years some news like a % decrease there will have a correct effect, already everyone is shouting news determines what is there... nothing like that, it creates noise and short-term volatility, that's all.
Noterday писал(а) >>
Такой sell красивый, зачем нам верхи? :)
Helex wrote >>.
Why, cross resisted but forex persuaded him.
So that's what I'm saying...