GOLD, Gold and XAUUSD - page 138
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I agree, in about a month’s time
By the way, is there a reason?
"Survive" is such an appropriate word for my strategy when intraday volatility is low. During those days, my EA goes into "self preservation" mode by reducing position size to the minimum allowed─and then waits for the market phase to change back to volatile, when the 1% of balance position size goes back into effect. The growth curve is basically a vibrating upward line interspersed by smoother sideways steps─most within 2 or 3% drawdown, with %5 being the worst. I've not noticed an issue with slippage, and spread is baked into the testing/design of the EA.
The underlying concept is to use tiny positions as "crash test dummies" for the purpose of detecting when live trading conditions return to a state of profitability per the rules of my strategy.
[W]hat flips it back out of preservation mode — a volatility threshold, the recent trade outcomes, or something else deciding conditions have "returned to profitability"?
It's actually nothing clever. After a series of losing trades, just one trade closed in profit goes ping like an airsoft bb, and then reloads a 12 gauge slug. The number of loss trades in the series (threshold) is determined by one thing─the average count of consecutive losses (plus 1) in a proper, accurate, and lengthy backtest report─the opposing threshold.
TBH, your way is better for breakout trading because you don't have to "pay to know." For scalping however, I've yet to find a suitable replacement for buying crash test dummies which tell me whether the market is predominantly "in-sync" with my strategy in the moment.
I agree, in about a month’s time
By the way, is there a reason for that?
Hi!
Is it worth buying gold at 1130 ?
Closed the position at 1140.8, considering that 3640% p.a. is quite a decent profit.
Man, reading this thread from 2016 hurts in a whole different way today.
Back when gold at $1,130 felt like it was heading straight to the Earth's core, and a quick 3640% p.a. scalp was just a casual lunch break achievement.
If only we all knew back then that gold would eventually smash past $2,700+ and make those $1,130 entries look like an absolute fairy tale.
Should've just bought and held instead of overthinking production costs and Trump's 2016 speeches!
Classic hindsight.
Gold trading for the week
Hello! This week has been less volatile for gold than the last, which means it’s been less profitable but more stressful.
I managed to lose most of my deposit (I’m left with 5,790 out of a peak of 13,000, whilst my starting deposit was 5,000). At first, I increased my deposit by a factor of 2.6, but then the gold market went haywire, which wiped out my profits.
It's actually nothing clever. After a series of losing trades, just one trade closed in profit goes ping like an airsoft bb, and then reloads a 12 gauge slug. The number of loss trades in the series (threshold) is determined by one thing─the average count of consecutive losses (plus 1) in a proper, accurate, and lengthy backtest report─the opposing threshold.
TBH, your way is better for breakout trading because you don't have to "pay to know." For scalping however, I've yet to find a suitable replacement for buying crash test dummies which tell me whether the market is predominantly "in-sync" with my strategy in the moment.
Appreciate that, though I'd push back gently on the "don't have to pay to know" part — I think breakouts just pay in a different currency. I don't bleed spread sampling the market, but I pay in false breaks: the level goes, I'm in, and then it snaps right back through. Same information cost, it just shows up as whipsaw losses instead of probe-trade spread. Neither of us really gets the regime for free.
What I like about your setup is that the filter is outcome-based rather than indicator-based — the strategy's own results are the sensor, and a run of losses longer than the backtested norm is the tell. That sidesteps the usual problem of a volatility filter lagging price.
The thing I'd want to stress-test: is that average consecutive-loss count actually stable across regimes, or does the "normal" streak length itself stretch in the choppy phases? If it drifts longer exactly when conditions turn against you, the threshold loosens right when you'd want it tightest. Have you seen that number hold across different market phases, or did you have to bucket it by volatility?
Does the "normal" streak length itself stretch in the choppy phases?
That's a good question. It's hard for me to say, so I'll give you more stats and then maybe you can say. My backtest report of over 4000 round trades shows an average of 2 consecutive losses, an average of 2 consecutive profits, a maximum of 9 consecutive losses, and a maximum of 14 consecutive profits. With a maximum drawdown at 10% and a 3.2 profit factor, I tend to think, "Dont fix it if it ain't broke."
Where is the GOLD last price end of this month??
In my estimation, gold will finish the month just about where it "closed" on Friday. I expect little geopolitical and/or economic change before month's-end.
"[C]losed" is in quotes because the CME recently began allowing 1OZ Gold Futures trading on a 24/7 basis (following CFTC approval).