GOLD, Gold and XAUUSD - page 139
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I’ve never understood reading tea leaves...
Are you asking for the opinion of a psychic on a par with Vanga?...
And do you think such a genius would actually answer you?...
Well… there’s no harm in dreaming!!!
I’ve never understood reading tea leaves...
Are you asking for the opinion of a psychic on a par with Vanga?...
And do you think such a genius would actually answer you?...
Well… there’s no harm in dreaming!!!
It ain't exactly a case of... "🔮...❌ Hey, come'on. Work! 🔮❌... Dang thing never works."
The best that you can do is estimate how much better, worse, or constant that the sum total of the global influences on gold will become by month's-end.
Truth be told, I don't build fundamental events into my EA but I also don't wear blinders like a horse. Gotta be able to see a swan approaching.
That’s how you should trade
As soon as the final confirmation appears as a red square, go short
Basically, when all the indicators align and the trend has ‘run its course’ – that’s when you enter; this way, it won’t be like reading tea leaves 😁
That's a good question. It's hard for me to say, so I'll give you more stats and then maybe you can say. My backtest report of over 4000 round trades shows an average of 2 consecutive losses, an average of 2 consecutive profits, a maximum of 9 consecutive losses, and a maximum of 14 consecutive profits. With a maximum drawdown at 10% and a 3.2 profit factor, I tend to think, "Dont fix it if it ain't broke."
Those numbers actually answer more than you'd think. An average of 2 with a max of 9 on the loss side is a healthy tail — the worst clusters sit only about 4-5x the norm, and if that's producing 10% max drawdown with a 3.2 profit factor over 4000 trades, the streak length can't be drifting badly enough to hurt you. If choppy regimes were really stretching the "normal" run, that max would be sitting a lot further out from the average than it is.
Here's the part I hadn't fully appreciated until you laid it out: your reset is outcome-triggered, so it's already quietly regime-adaptive. A longer choppy phase just produces a longer loss streak, and full size only comes back when a real profit prints — so the system waits out the bad regime on its own, without ever needing to label it as choppy. The threshold only decides when you go defensive; the exit takes care of itself. That sidesteps most of what I was poking at.
The one place I'd still expect it to bite is the mirror image of my false-break problem — a single lucky winner landing in the middle of a still-choppy stretch and flipping size back up one trade too early, right before the chop resumes. So the thing I keep circling back to: does one profitable trade reset you to full size, or do you want a small confirmation run before the 12 gauge reloads?
[D]oes one profitable trade reset you to full size, or do you want a small confirmation run before the 12 gauge reloads?
Thank you for your logical analysis.
Full size, I could say, which is 1% of account balance. So the worst case consecutive run is -3% - (0.01 [pocket change] x 9). Of course, subsequent trades can accumulate into whatever. Hence, the statistical max DD of 10%. The saving grace is my dynamic exit coupled with a hidden 10 big point fixed "stop" which is statistically smaller. The average profit trade is 361 USD, and the average loss trade is -143 USD. The win rate is really only 55% which kinda taught me a counterintuitive lesson.
Short gold immediately!
Well, I don’t know, I don’t know… :-)
In my view, metals tend to rise nicely and sustainably when long. Silver’s almost there now; a confirming signal should come in literally within 15–30 minutes. I’m lying in wait, ready to strike :-)
Thank you for your logical analysis.
Full size, I could say, which is 1% of account balance. So the worst case consecutive run is -3% - (0.01 [pocket change] x 9). Of course, subsequent trades can accumulate into whatever. Hence, the statistical max DD of 10%. The saving grace is my dynamic exit coupled with a hidden 10 big point fixed "stop" which is statistically smaller. The average profit trade is 361 USD, and the average loss trade is -143 USD. The win rate is really only 55% which kinda taught me a counterintuitive lesson.
Good, so one win is enough to reload — no confirmation run needed. That actually maps cleanly onto the streak stats: 9 losses in a row at 1% risk each comes out to roughly -9% (a touch less once you factor in compounding, since each loss shrinks the base for the next), and that lines up almost exactly with your reported 10% statistical max DD. So the reset rule isn't quietly adding tail risk on top of what the streak numbers already implied — that's a good sign for the system.
One thing I couldn't fully reconcile: you wrote the worst case as "-3% - (0.01 × 9)" — did I misread that, or should that be closer to -9%? Just want to make sure I've got the sizing right before I lean on it.
The win rate / R:R pair is the more interesting part, though. $361 avg win vs $143 avg loss is a 2.52:1 reward-to-risk. At 55% win rate that gives an expectancy of about $134/trade, and a profit factor around 3.09 — close enough to your reported 3.2 that the two cross-check cleanly (the gap's probably a few outsized winners pulling the average up). That's likely the "counterintuitive lesson": you don't need to win more than half your trades if the wins run 2.5x the losses. Most people optimize for win rate and end up on the wrong side of that trade-off.
One more thing I'm curious about — the hidden 10-point fixed stop. With an average loss of only $143, is that fixed stop basically never the thing that actually closes a trade (dynamic exit gets there first almost every time), or does it eat a meaningful chunk of the loss-side trades? That would tell me whether it's a real backstop or mostly decorative.
Hi!
Is it worth buying gold at 1130 ?
YESS
19/8/2026