Diablo - page 24
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OK, one last argument and I'll leave this oddball thread.
If we took 1 corridor on the first series, ($10), we made our deposit equal to 1000+10=1010. That is, we increased it by 1%. There is no guarantee from plum after the 6th step yet. This guarantee will be at the 50th or 100th step. And further, everything is correct, we will drain at step 7. The probability of losing will decrease to 1 /128. Right. Maybe Diablo-ski will get lucky and we'll keep going like this, doubling the deposit time after time. And the probability of losing seems to be halved each time - if we do not withdraw profit. Now calculate the probability of that kind of luck - which I wish for you.
You are trying to avoid mistakes by mixing together two different cases - when the deposit is equal to 100 steps and when the deposit is equal to 6 steps and you are pasting probabilities of one case to the deposit of another. It won't work. To quote you:
alexeymosc:
If we took 1 corridor on the first series, ($10), we made our deposit equal to 1000+10=1010. That is, we increased it by 1%.
You are caught in the belief that logic can help here.
Yes, I agree.
You are trying to get out of it by mixing two different cases - when the deposit equals 100 steps and when the deposit equals 6 steps - and lumping the probabilities of one case with the deposit of the other. It won't work. To quote you:
So far, everything is correct. But what does this have to do with 6 steps? In case of a deposit of $1000 and the step of $10, we have 1000 / 10 = 100 steps to drawdown, not 6! If you count as you do, then with a deposit of $ 1000 and 6 steps to zero, the step is then 1000 / 6 = $ 167! And after the first positive closing, the deposit will be equal to 7 steps, and the chance to lose this, seven-step deposit, will be halved!Why 100 steps? Zeroing in if price went in one particular pattern, the probability of which needs to be counted. Maybe there will be 8 steps. In other cases trades close at +1%.
The probability of losing should be calculated, may be it will be 7 steps or 5. I'm not trying to get out of this, it's just your imagination. If you take such a corridor that it will double deposit for 6 times, it means that you will not fail after 6 steps, but will fail less - because of the big corridor and drawdowns will be bigger.
Yes, I agree.
I don't know what's wrong with logic, but if your calculations are to be believed, the coin is not 50/50, but very much "skewed"...
Either the calculations are flawed, or logic is no friend of mine!
;)
I don't know what's wrong with logic, but if your calculations are to be believed, the coin is not 50/50, but very much "skewed"...
Either your calculations are flawed, or you're not friends with logic!
;)
) Where is it skewed? You must point out where it is skewed. Then you can sue Microsoft for skewed PRNG.
You were counting the likelihood of a "flush" the other day.
I don't understand what you're saying. What's Melcosoft got to do with it?
We are discussing Katala and its strategy.
8)
You were counting the likelihood of a "flush" the other day.
I don't understand what you're saying. What's Melcosoft got to do with it?
We're talking about Catala and his strategy.
8)
So you didn't understand, not at all.
Thank you for answering all your questions.
(
Thank you for answering all the questions.
(
I'm not running away. What question? Where's the skew?
One pattern kills the deposit. What's the length of the pattern? You name it and I'll calculate its probability of occurrence. So what is your Question?
Why 100 steps? Zeroing in if the price went in one particular pattern, the probability of which has to be counted. Maybe there will be 8 steps. In other cases trades are closed at +1%.
The probability of losing should be calculated, may be it will be 7 steps or 5. I'm not trying to get out of this, it's just your imagination. If you take such a corridor that it will double deposit for 6 times, it means that you will not fail after 6 steps, but will fail less - because of the big corridor and drawdowns will be bigger.