GOLD, Gold and XAUUSD - page 143
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I guarantee it – there’ll be a crash!
I guarantee it – there’ll be a crash!
I can’t see a single sign that gold prices in dollars are set to fall.
But as for a price rise, against the backdrop of Trump’s statements about a possible $5,000 payout to every US citizen – that’s actually a very good reason.
1.75 trillion – you know, even for him, that sort of money doesn’t just lie around on the street.
I guarantee it – there’ll be a crash!
I can’t see a single reason why the price of gold in dollars should fall.
But as for a price rise, against the backdrop of Trump’s statements about possibly handing out $5,000 to every US citizen, that’s actually a very good reason.
1.75 trillion – you know, even for him, that sort of money doesn’t just lie around on the street.
How will this affect the price of gold?
I would venture to suggest that this could have a negative impact on the dollar. In the context of trading the XAUUSD pair, this suggests that the price of an ounce of gold is likely to strengthen against the dollar.
lost 3,000 pips on gold
I can’t see a single sign that gold prices in dollars are set to fall.
But as for a price rise, against the backdrop of Trump’s statements about a possible $5,000 payout to every US citizen – that’s actually a very good reason.
1.75 trillion – you know, even for him, that sort of money doesn’t just lie around on the street.
I would venture to suggest that this could have a negative impact on the dollar. In the context of trading the XAUUSD pair, this suggests that the price of an ounce of gold is likely to strengthen against the dollar.
We also have to consider the veracity of the statements. Interestingly, those statements have been made repeatedly over the past 18 months or so and no payments have been issued. Also consider that Trump has also said that "the war is over" no less than 15 times, yet fighting continues.
If real interest rates and the U.S. 10 Year T-Bond yield continue to rise, investors will likely move over to the USD/Bonds to capture the rates/yield. Although gold may not fall, the inverse correlation of rates/yield to gold is already generating resistance to upward gold movement. Holding gold in stagnant market conditions provides no yield returns.
Well, they’re not making a profit, they just aren’t! Bastards!
We must also consider the credibility of these statements. It is interesting to note that similar statements have been made on numerous occasions over the last 18 months or so, but no payments have actually been made. Bear in mind, too, that Trump has stated at least 15 times that ‘the war is over’, yet hostilities continue.
If real interest rates and yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds continue to rise, investors are likely to switch to the ‘US dollar/bonds’ pair in order to lock in these rates and yields. Whilst gold may not fall, the inverse correlation between interest rates and yields and gold is already creating resistance to a rise in gold prices. Holding gold in a stagnant market generates no income.
As long as the price of oil rises, gold will fall. A law of nature and economics.
Here’s AI.
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The short answer:it is impossible to predict markets completely, but it is possible to assess probabilities and manage risks.
Why an accurate forecast is impossible:
Randomness and new events — wars, pandemics, central bank decisions, technological breakthroughs — cannot be known in advance.
Reflexivity — the forecast itself influences people’s behaviour and alters the outcome.
Limited information — no one knows the full motives and data of all participants.
Emergence — the market is a complex system where the whole is not simply the sum of its parts.
What actually works:
Probabilistic thinking — not ‘it will be like this’, but ‘the probability of this scenario is higher/lower’.
Fundamental analysis — assessing value, profits, interest rates and inflation.
Technical analysis — statistical patterns and levels (doesn’t always work).
Macroeconomic models — forecasts of GDP, inflation and interest rates.
Quantitative strategies — statistical arbitrage, machine learning applied to historical data.
Risk management — diversification, hedging, stop-losses, position sizing.
Key points to understand:
‘Black swans’ ( Taleb) — rare, unpredictable events with enormous consequences.
Efficient market hypothesis ( in its weak form) — current prices already reflect publicly available information.
Short-term forecastsare almost indistinguishable from chance;long-term trends are more stable.
Even the best funds make mistakes regularly; they succeed through risk management, not ‘clairvoyance’.
Practical conclusion: rather than asking ‘what will happen tomorrow?’, it is more useful to ask ‘what scenarios are possible, what are their probabilities, and how should I spread my risks to weather any of them?’
Let me clarify: do you mean‘onthe forex market’ – that is, the foreign exchange ( Forex) market, where theXAU/USDpair ( gold against the dollar)is traded? If so, here is an objective picture.
Important warning
I cannot give an accurate forecast —nobody can. Any ‘target level’ found online or provided by an analyst is a probability, not a certainty. What follows is not a recommendation, but a framework for your own analysis.
What determines the price of XAU/USD
1. Real interest rates (the main driver)
Gold does not pay interest. When real rates (the nominal rate minus inflation) rise → gold becomes cheaper. When they fall → it becomes more expensive.
Therefore, the key factor isFedpolicy: rate cuts usually support gold, whilst tightening puts pressure on it.
2. The US dollar (DXY)
Gold is denominated in dollars. A strong dollar → gold is more expensive for non-residents → downward pressure. A weaker dollar → support for gold.
There is usually an inverse correlation, but not always.
3. Inflation and geopolitics
Gold is a safe-haven asset. Wars, crises, sanctions, recession risks → demand rises.
However, if inflation forces central banks to raise interest rates sharply, the effect may be the opposite.
4. Central bank demand and physical demand
In recent years, central banks (China, India, Russia, etc.) have been actively buying gold for their reserves – this provides structural support.
Jewellery demand (India, China), ETF flows.
5. Positioning and sentiment
CFTC reports on futures, flows into ETFs (SPDR Gold Shares, etc.).
Arguments for an uptrend (bullish scenario)
Fed rate cuts.
A weaker dollar.
Geopolitical instability.
Purchases by central banks.
Rising government debt and deficits.
Arguments for a fall (bearish scenario)
Persistently high inflation → the Fed keeps rates high.
A strong dollar and rising bond yields.
Increased risk appetite (shares are rising → gold is less attractive).
Widespread profit-taking following a prolonged rally.
How to view the ‘outlook’ in practical terms
Time horizon. Over days or weeks — it’s almost just noise. Over months or years — trends driven by macro factors.
Key events:Fed meetings , inflation reports (CPI, PCE), labour market data (NFP), geopolitics.
Levels and volatility:don’t look at ‘where it’s going’, but rather ‘where the scenario will break down’ — support/resistance levels, ATR, option levels.
Scenario-based approach: outline three scenarios (uptrend/sideways/downtrend), their triggers and probabilities — and decide in advance what you’ll do for each one.
If you want specifics
Ask yourself:
Timehorizon — days, weeks, months, years?
Instrument — spot XAU/USD, futures, ETFs, gold mining shares?
Is the objectivetrading, hedging or long-term investment?
Then I’ll go into more detail: exactly which data and levels to look at, and which scenarios are currently being discussed in the market.