A-B-C-D Trade - page 185
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The Euro (and gold CFD XAU_USD) spiked down on worse than expected Germain PMI at 07:30. The EU PMI coming up at 08:00. GBP data at 08:30, and Swiss Zew at 09:00.
Today, EU meeting again on Greece, and U.S. has Housing data at 14:00.
John Taylor thinks the U.S. will re-enter into recession, with the second round worse than the first. Meanwhile U.S. still working to resolve debt ceiling issue.
***
Attached is EUR/USD 1-hour with indicator TD Lines v1.00. Trend line was plotted using lows from July 20th 14:00 and July 21st 02:00.
The July 21st 07:00 (just now) candle closed below this trend line. Upper left hand corner has info, with target levels referencing horizontal lines (blue).
When we zoom out on EUR/USD, we see a trend line/angle that hasn't been broken yet.
Here is 1-Hour zoom-out on EUR/USD with trend line based on lows of July 18th 14:00 1.40174 and July 20th 14:00 1.41665.
Horizontal fibs (yellow) has Low = July 18th 07:00 1.40129 and High = July 19th 09:00 1.42162. The 138.2 extension of 1.42939 hit during 07:00.
Top has BAJA bearish divergence with 2 peaks at 22:00 and 06:00. This review of set-up is just a look at technicals as economic data at 07:30 - 09:00 precludes trade.
The 15-min EFT SELL entry was at 07:00 open price of 1.42643. The negative data resulted in whipsaw candle that hit the 138.2% extension precisely.
The bounce down was contained by the Moon 0-degree and diagonal trend line. The 50% retrace fib 1.42302 also there, based on Low = July 20th 14:00 1.41665.
Attached is a 30-min chart on this gold CFD that tends to mimic gold futures. We added MurreyMath1.0 to session colors provided by indicator Time_modified2.
Fibo Fan: High = July 19th 07:00 1610.08 Low = July 20th 1581.05
Horizontal fibs: Low = July 20th 1581.05 High = July 20th 15:00 1597.95
- 78.6 fan ray caught U.S. session high, where MML 6/8th also resides.
- 88.6 fan ray caught 138.2 extension during 07:00 data.
- 127.2 extension respected with small bounce.
- BAJA bearish divergence at top
Currently fighting High level, same area as MML 5/8th, as more data released.
Adding to tensions, Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker has just been quoted as saying a selective Greek default is still a possibility.
Meanwhile Swiss Zew came out negative at 09:00.
EUR/USD powering down, breaking trend line.
Updated EUR/USD 1-Hour with indicator TD Lines V1.00.
Simple horizontal fib retracement plot:
Low = July 20th 1.41665 and High = July 21st 1.42393
Pic has market at 78.6 fib, but now has just touched 88.6 of 1.41810.
After extending to the downside, the 30-min chart shows BAJA bullish divergence with the 2 dips occurring on 09:00 and 10:00.
The 15-min EFT trigger BUY entry at open of 11:00 candle price of 1.41718. S/L below low of 1.41379, thus very small amount of pips allowing for more lots when scaling.
Around 12:15 volume spike as reports of a deal on Greece circulated. There was also minor U.S. Jobless Claims at 12:30, which rose. At 14:00 was U.S. Housing and Bernanke testimony.
Price made the 161.8 extension to 1.43903 during the 14:15 candle period. We attached the 15-min chart only. Plot: High = 1.42939 and Low = 1.41379
Here is a link to the bloomberg article describing the reported proposed details on Greece, which may involve a selective default for a few days:
Euro-Area Leaders May Accept Greek Default - Bloomberg
EUR/USD reversed after its BAJA bullish divergence on 1-hour 07:00 and 09:00 dips. BUY entry with 15-min EFT trigger at open of 11:00 candle price of 1.16494.
S/L below 09:30 pivot low of 1.16079. Risk on this opportunity was 46 pips. Therefore in order to maintain at least a 1 to 1 Reward/Risk ratio, profit target must be at least to the 78.6% retrace level of 1.17080. Plot uses July 21st 06:30 high of 1.17353.
Should trader elect to proceed, the HAMa histogram is in place to assist in staying through any small fluctuations. It stayed blue from 11:45 and onward.
We used the 1st significant pivot at 12:45 (1.17541) to plot High for extension. Pair hit the 127.2 of 1.17939 at 14:15 period.
Here's a chart on 1-Hour EUR/USD with indicator MurreyMathv1.0.
We also made a wide fib plot of Low = July 12th 1.38369 and High = July 13th 1.42811. Pullback was to the 61.8 July 18th, prior to 127.2 extension today. This top is also 8/8th MML.
Here's a continuance of the gold CFD XAU_USD. We left off at the BAJA formation at the end of yesterday's Asian session and early European.
Things were choppy through that Euro session with news of the new Greece deal being digested by the market. Risk off had a sell of on gold and related instruments.
The fibo fan now must point up to acquire support. Low = July 20th 1581.01 and High = July 21st 1604.42 (138.2 extension).
Price sank to the 78.6% horizontal fib 1584.63 during yesterday's U.S. session. The fan's 86.6% ray also there.
Today, price bounced off of that 78.6 and rebounded back up to the High of horizontal plot 1597.95.
Intra-day directional fib plot had Low = 07:30 1583.35 and High = 09:30 1590.73. This resulted in 200% extension at the High price of 1597.95.