A-B-C-D Trade - page 190
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We also plotted the horizontal fibs (white) using the May 4th high of 1.49388 (high for year) and the July 12th low 1.38363.
We cab see the high candles at the top unable to close above the Mars 90-degree level. The low was at the Mars 0-degree. For newcomers, the Mars lines are the ones near horizontal in angle.
Pair retraced to the 61.8 fib on July 26th and bounced down to the 38.2 today.
The diagonal Moon lines are more applicable to intra-day charting. Viewers can download this indicator for free at the proprietors web site at NaturalCycle - Harness the power of market cycles
We posted settings and templates using this indicator. Try the "search this thread function". We will also post charts with vertical lines of aspect degrees.
Here is a continuation of our EUR/CHF plot which applied the SQ9(Price) using the July 18th low of 1.14032 as the start price.
We had also displayed an ABC plot using swings:
A = July 22nd 07:00 high 1.18910
B = July 22nd 14:00 low 1.16917
C = July 22nd 18:00 high 1.17529
We dragged the indicator line for Point A to the left in order to have the extension fibs reach further out to the right, as this move took some time. We want to use the 1-hour interval to better display the price interaction with S&R.
We can see price respect each FE level, with the bounce coming off the FE 161.8, which is of high probability.
If the extension to the 161.8 (1.14377) was driven by economic data, an experience trader can trade the bounce up.
Stop-loss can be placed just below the yellow 0-degree line of 1.14032. Risk = about 40 pips including spread & cushion.
One obvious target for take-profit (TP) is the FE 127.2 level 1.15051. Reward = about 65 pips.
R/R ratio = 1.6:1
This was the bigger picture. We also have intra-day plot(s) to correspond with the big picture S&R.
Here is a 30-min with session colors. We mentioned pair meeting support level as can be seen previously on July 22nd -25th.
Early European (blue box) had economic data, including one with negative Euro implications. Support was broken during 09:30 candle and the hits to the 127.2 (1.42729) and 138.2 (1.42502) extension levels were achieved.
The black dotted fibs are a "wide" plot using the aforementioned July 12th low to the recent July 27th high. Its 38.2 was nearly the same as the blue 127.2. If an experience trader trades the bounce off of the 127.2, S/L can be placed just below the 138.2.
Conversely, a bounce trade off of the 138.2 can also be manipulated. In either case, retracement plot to determine exit levels, can use European session High to Low. This resulted in the 38.2 price of 1.43086 which was hit during the 14:00 period.
If trading from the 138.2 extension to the 38.2 retrace, profit = 40 pips. Risk was relatively low if S/L placed just below 138.2.
Using the small pivots as seen on 15-min interval, we can also place S/L by plotting:
High = 10:45 1.43002 and Low = 12:00 1.42524.
127.2 (to downside) = 1.42394
138.2 = 1.42341
Add 5 pips to these levels and risk was net 16 and 21 pips.
Therefore, advanced determination of R/R was minimum 2:1. This also involves scaling the number of lots to trade. Use the S/L amount to equal percentage risk for each trade. That was discussed in detail, with posted calculators. Always have a plan with sound money management.
Here is the 4- Hour CFD USOIL that tends to mimic futures. We had applied indicator MurreyMath.1.0 (MML), and horizontal fib plot:
High = July 8 12:00 99.15
Low = July 12th 04:00 93.54
Price action respected the various fib and MML levels, with the high being tested several times. The first breach of the High occurred on July 21st, and hit the MML 8/8th.
This particular version of Murrey Math Lines (MML) labels trading instructions at certain MML levels. At the 8/8th, it intructs: " If downtrend, SELL & Exit @ 6/8th.
Murray believed markets moved in intervals of 2/8ths when oversold or overbought. He identified the 7/8th and 8/8th as overbought levels, and the -1/8th and -2/8th as oversold levels.
Indicator also instructs to buy/sell 2 levels before extremes:
Sell if downtrend at +2/8, + 1/8, 8/8, 7/8
This mean is price trades above one of these levels, sell when it comes back down and breaks the level.
Buy if uptrend at -2/8, -1/8, 0/8, 1/8
After price dips below one of these levels, buy after it resurfaces above that level.
We have re-posted indicator for download in the Gann is the Mann indicator section.
Negative economic data for AUD released at 01:30. We can see the wicks on the 02:00 candle.
We have the pink trend line and the yellow extension fibs with plot:
High/Low = 1.08736/1.05594
Monitor the RSI(4). The trap is when it registers a higher reading than 1st dip on 19:00. We have about 15 minutes for this 02:00 to close.
The 127.2 also acting as support thus far.
When we said "trap", we meant that it can look like a short. However, if the 02:00 candle RSI(4) reading at close is higher than the 19:00 candle, it denotes BAJA bullish divergence (UP).
The end of an era, and the public participation of an Icon's fund.
Golden Era of Rock Star Traders Concludes - Bloomberg
Moody's put Spain on review for possible downgrade, and initial market reaction is negative Euro.
Here is an update of our 4-hour with SQ9(Price) that had used the June 7th high of 1.46954 as the start price for the indicator. Direction is down.
We identified the Low to High, and 127.2 extension holding, Reversal eventually broke support near 450-degree.
Added fibo fan plot: Low = July 21st 1.41379 High = July 27th 1.45350
The fan's 78.8% ray is acting as diagonal support. The news of Moody's placing Spain under review is a big market-mover. Previous to that, it was announced that the U.S. was delaying a vote pertaining to the debt ceiling and budget.
Ahead in U.S is GDP data release at 12:30 GMT.
EUR/JPY has potential to dip to 109.870, which is the 138.2 extension off our plot, and close to July 12th low 109.570. Mars 180-degree of about 109.691 also down there.
EUR/CHF has hard support at July 18th pivot low of 1.14032. Initial bounce up should fetch a few pips. Current price is 1.14416.
EUR/USD key support at 1.42500. Below that support lies at 1.42212 and 1.42014.