A-B-C-D Trade - page 180
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Updated EUR/USD 1-hour with Andrew's Pitchfork and AML. Moved high on fibo fan to July 5th 08:00 high 1.44979.
Break of horizontal 161.8 and 88.6 fan ray occurred during 06:00 period. There were 3 hits to the Median Line (middle fork) prior to that.
1.41015 is Low as well as the 200% extension.
Updated last chart shows break of LOW, and current hit on Lower_ML2 of APF. The 261.8 of this plot is 1.39871.
2nd chart is 4-Hour SQ9(Price), which had been posted, using 1.39682 as start price. Now approaching 22.5-degree level of 1.39978, which is also the 161.8 extension based on plot from top and sharpest pullback.
It's July 12th Asian session 04:00. Attached is the EUR/USD Daily GannBoxx_144, which has been updated and posted along the way.
We plotted an ABC for current price action and as we stand for the moment, pair is sitting on the FE 100 price of 1.39541.
No doubt about the swings:
A = June 7th high 1.46952
B = June 16th low 1.41550
C = July 3rd high 1.45769
Also for horizontal, plot from low price in box to highest price in box, and 50% retrace is the same as the blue horizontal, labeled HLine 3 0, as well as 36 (1.38870).
The May 23rd low 1.39682 is significant pivot and support. So this level is where pair is now.
*****
The fear is again pointed toward EU sovereign debt, with the market unconvinced that Greece will ever survive without defaulting. We mentioned the speculation on a domino effect to other P.I.I.G.S. nations.
The credit default swaps (similar to insurance) are trading at very high levels.
There was some mention of current/future welcome to Iceland into the Euro Zone nations. Ironically, Iceland, with its banking collapse was probably the first nation to officially go underwater during the global financial meltdown.
Greece, Ireland Can
Here's 30-min EUR/CHF with MurreyMath1.0 indicator. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts will not display as many lines.
We can see the gap down upon the week's open, as it did in other pairs.
We have plotted the largest ABC swings 1.23439/1.19652/1.21683. Its FE 127 was hit July 11th during 12:00 candle.
Subsequently, pair touched the -1/8th MML on July 12th 02:00 candle period.
There is BAJA bullish divergence on both the 1-hour and 30-min. We need to exercise caution however as there is panic in the markets.
The traders have been pounding Italian bonds, as this is the latest nation to be scrutinized (again) in this game of musical chairs. Stock markets around the world are in the red, as investors are fleeing risk.
Gold CFD XAU_USD next up for analysis.
XAU_USD 1-Hour chart
Andrew's Pitchfork (APF)
Handle = June 13th 17:00 low 1510.70
Upper corner = June 22nd 15:00 high 1557.78
Lower corner = June 27th 16:00 low 1498.40
Add AML for interior fibs.
Horizontal fib plot (yellow):
High = June 22nd 15:00 high 1557.78
Low = June 23rd 18:00 low 1510.65
161.8 to downside hit July 1st.
We posted divergence opportunity (counter-trend) from the 127.2 down to 138.2. We also illustrated the subsequent 161. extension to equivalent of the 0% level on attached chart.
As the move ratchets up, trader readjusts fib extension plots as required. July 6th and 7th saw resistance at the 50% fib. That level was smashed with the July 8th negative NFP.
Since there was the swing from the 0% to 50%, the 100% is essential a 200% extension. The 78.6 horizontal is the same as the 161.8 extension.
The bounce off the top came a little early, at 1556.82 versus previous June 22nd high 1557.78. We covered bounce trading and technique of layered entry.
The most logical retrace plot uses Low = June 8th 12:00 1524.95, which is the NFP period. The 38.2 = 1544.65, hit July 11th 14:00 period.
This bounce trade was about a 3 to 1 reward/risk ratio. $3 risk and $9-10 reward.
*****
We can keep plot and APF. The horizontal fibs have the extension levels to the upside for targets in event market breaks High. The existing S&R from APF and fibs are good for the downside. Can eventually also plot tight fibs once market makes swings.
Along with PSQ9 Moon and Mars, we have
Horizontal fib plot:
Low = June 29th 1.06045
High = June 30th 1.07493
Pair hit the 127.2% extension to the upside on July 1st and bounced and respected S&R and making 2nd hit to the 127.2 on July 8th.
That date of course contained the shockingly low U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, and we saw the USD gain across the board.
Gap down on this pair at week's open. Negative data today and fear selling saw hit to the Mars 180-degree and Moon 0-degree. It has just broken this support level and nearing horizontal 161.8 (yellow) of 1.05150. A bounce should occur here, but due to panic situation, any trades should be concluded quickly.
These are observations during real time for study purposes.
Since last SQ9(Price) chart had its 0-degree breached, we'll switch to our other plot using 1.46948 as start price. Enter that and make sure direction is down.
The attached chart has labels referring to sequence of events at pivots.
Not shown is tight horizontal fib plot of:
High = July 11th 00:00 1.42248
Low = July 11th 15:00 1.39853
161.8 = 1.38373 (just hit 07:00 period)
This plot's 161.8 more accurate as it is the tight plot, and intra-day plot. The high is the open of week Asian. The low is largest pivot.
Not shown is tight horizontal fib plot of:
High = July 11th 00:00 1.42248
Low = July 11th 15:00 1.39853
161.8 = 1.38373 (just hit 07:00 period)
This plot's 161.8 more accurate as it is the tight plot, and intra-day plot. The high is the open of week Asian. The low is largest pivot.
Here it is on a 30-min with PSQ9. The 161.8 1.38373 is right at spot where Moon 180 and Mars 0 intersect.
Bounce up to 127.2 during open of European session. Data ahead, check full economic calendar.
Crude in high volatile in intradays give ur view ?thanks
Attached is a 30-min session colors chart on USOIL, the CFD that mimics oil futures.
As with EUR/USD, price started to rise early European session. Plotting retracement fibs simply from July 8th 12:00 high (US NFP) 99.15 to July 12th 07:30 low 93.54.
Notice spike down due to disastrous NFP.
BAJA bullish divergence at bottom, however slight on the RSI(4) readings.
The brown shaded box is U.S. session, which we have start at 01:30 GMT. That is the same as the New York Stock Exchange open. It overlaps the European session.
USOIL broke above the 23.6 just after U.S. open and paused at the 38.2, where the fibo fan's (not shown) 50% intersected. Instrument approaching the 50% retrace level of 96.34.
Keeping it simple, one of the larger pictures should include the 4-Hour. Plot fibo fan from:
High = May 2nd 12:00 114.80 to Low = June 27th 12:00 89.59.
The 50% fan ray caught to highs of July 7th and 8th. We use this as diagonal S&R for now. We can also use the previous dip for the Low July 23rd 12:00 89.69. This bracketed current high/low.
Don't worry about making or reading predictions. As we can see, things change very quickly. The professionals that predicted Euro strength in near-term are taking a beating.
You should be more interactive and post a chart from time to time.