A-B-C-D Trade - page 179
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Attached is EUR/USD 15-min with MurreyMath1.0, wide fibs, and intra-day fibs, all of which were detailed in previous posts. Rate decisions 11:00 and 11:45.
At 12:15, a jobs report came out better than projected.
ECB's Chairman Mr. Trichet's press conference after rate decision.
15:00 crude oil inventories data, had inventories lower.
The U.K. and EUR rate decisions came in as anticipated. EUR/USD slipped below support during the 11:15 candle period after U.K. announced. Pair pushed to the 138.2 extension, and the MML 1/8th, after EU and US data events.
Usually, with an interest rate hike, a country's currency will strengthen. If the change was to the exact amount anticipated by the market, it may be all or partially priced in. That means position and swing traders had early BUY positions, which pushed currency up.
In any case, the technical trader that is on the sidelines will observe the initial reaction viz-a-viz plotted S&R, etc.
Now comes more complications. In Mr. Trichet's post-decision press conference, he announced that the ECB will suspend minimum credit-rating requirements on Portuguese bonds. This is in response to Moody's downgrade. Greece and Ireland also has this waiver for their bonds.
Some also thought they got a message of more imminent rate hikes.
Trichet Signals Further ECB Rate Increase - Bloomberg
The 12:30 candle's long wick after touching the MML 1/8th is the start of the whipsaw action. Reports are the market initially reacted pro-USD (down) after the 12:15 U.S. jobs data. Thereafter, the fundamental traders took Trichet's comments as a reason to go long (BUY).
This sequence of events highlights the danger for the intra-day technical trader that may have entered too soon, or simply disregard events. Obviously, it is recommended to always wait out the press conferences.
After volume settled down a bit, EUR/USD continued its up-move back to the fib plot's 50% level. When plotting from the High of 1.44654 to the bottom of 1.42198, the retrace was to the 61.8%.
Some experienced intra-day technical traders would have secured part of the up move, but very cautiously after the press conference. Having good plots and knowledge of S&R certainly helps as witnessed by the pairs adherence.
Staying out of the market when a trader is uncertain, or when there is whipsaw action, would be prudent. Why not just wait for other opportunities?
Many new(er) traders were never taught to stay out during high-impact economic data, certain medium-impact data, and other events. It would at least partially explain the reasons for being unsuccessful.
Economic data and world events drive the markets. Price analysis and technical analysis allow us to trade in the direction of the moves or trade the bounces off support and resistance.
Plotting on intra-day charts, while monitoring the larger (wider plots) picture, is an attempt to capture small portions of the major moves, or to shave a few pips from the bounces.
This doesn't mean an intra-day trader is not capable of holding a position longer (swing trading). However, it will take different skills in money management, and possibly assistance from partners, scripts or EAs.
EUR/USD trapped in channel between 50% and 61.8% retrace fib levels. The 50% basically the same as the MML 3/8th (0n 30-min chart) and acting as support, ahead of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls due out 12:30 GMT.
That support is also the 23.6% retrace fib based on yesterday's Low to High plot
06:00, 08:30 and 11:00 data precedes US NFP. Check your full economic calendar. Friday is a short day of course and end of week. Tough to squeeze a trade in, while side-stepping data. Shouldn't force anything.
____
Attached 30-min EUR/CHF has PSQ9 and horizontal fib plot based on Moody's downgrade of Portugal as the high on July 5th 18:00, and Low = 1.19652.
We also labeled the thrust up, post-Trichet comment on Portuguese bond requirement waiver.
Retrace hit the 61.8% fib of 1.21330 at 14:30 yesterday. The Mars 90-degree is running along the 61.8.
About an hour ago, CHF data at 05:45 was worse than expected Swiss Unemployment.
EUR/USD opened European session to downside at 07:00 period, breaking Asian Low and advancing about 28 pips thus far.
EUR/CHF bounced off previous June 6th High 1.21709 level and fell to 1.21295 area, which is same as 78.6 fib.
18 k nfp ??? gold /gbp / in good volume
Yes, disastrous June NFP figures for U.S. and Unemployment figure reflects. Flight to safety, including gold, USD, CHF.
Attached is split screen of EUR/CHF and EUR/USD.
EUR/USD pretty much down spike from time of data release at 12:30 with small pullback.
EUR/USD had large whipsaw candle during 12:30 period, hit resistance at 50% fan ray and 50% retrace fib from previous plot. Reversal down since 14:00.
U.S. President to speak soon. Damage control I would imaging.
Probable reason for EUR/USD going in both directions, initially up prior to down, is likely investors in U.S. stocks started dumping and converting back to Euros.
EUR/CHF next support lies at 138.2 extension 1.18865, with 161.8 at 1.18379.
EUR/USD testing 1.42032 which was low prior to spike.
Dinner conversation.
President Oboma just concluded his speech, but we didn't get any feeling of optimism. Markets should reflect further disappointment.
Here is the 30-min chart with PSQ9. Pair hit the 270-degree as support and bounced during 15:30 period.
Labels identify market moving events, Moody.s, ECB/Trichet, NFP.
Yellow fibs from plot of June 28th Low to July 4th High. Pink trend line from June 28th Low to July 6th Low.
MML -1/8th also acting as support thus far.
Here's EUR/USD with pretty obvious Andrew's Pitchfork plot on the 1-hour.
Handle = June 22nd 14:00 high 1.44406
Upper corner = July 3rd high 1.45769
Lower corner = June 27th 00:00 1.41015
Fibo fan and horizontal retrace fib plots: Lower corner to upper corner.
Bottom saw convergence of 88.6 fan ray, and 78.6 horizontal.
The APF uses indicator AML to plot interior fibs (dotted gray lines), which of course act as S&R. Nice adherence since top.