A-B-C-D Trade - page 184
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Upper left chart is 15-min with session color and tight retrace plot.
Lower left chart is the one posted with SQ9(Price) and fibo fan.
Right chart is 30-min with PSQ9.
We can see price touch the 280-degree level, which is just below the 50% retrace fib. The 61.8 fan ray also there, along with PSQ9 Moon 270-degree.
Handle = July 13th high 1.42811
Upper corner = July 18th high 1.41351
Lower corner = July 18th low 1.40129
Add AML for interior fibs
We saw price hit the Upper_ML2, which is the 1st interior fib from the upper fork, and is the 23.6% diagonal fib.
We'll get back to that EUR/USD ongoing chart (template) recently posted. Let's look at the simplicity of the move up this morning.
The attached 1-hour plots
Low = July 18th 14:00 1.40174 and High = July 18th 23:00 1.41351
The pullback was sharp and therefore easily seen: July 19th 06:00 low 1.40674. Notice candle bodies sit right at the 50% retrace fib.
The extension to the upside broke the High (same as Asian High) during the 07:00 period, and hit the 161.8 at 09:00, when German data was released.
The wide fib plot: High = July 3rd 1.45769 and Low = July 12th 1.38363
- the pair's 161.8 extension is at the same price area of the wide plot's 50% fib.
Reports that an ECB executive made comments relating to EU debt issues occurred this morning. There is a meeting in Brussels Thursday.
Here is continuance of our chart on AUD/NZD, with PSQ9 and fib extension.
The Mars 90-degree had acted as resistance prior to pair making its 161.8 extension to the Mars 0-degree.
The tighter plot also confirmed destination, but its Low was not 100% clear due to a whipsaw candle. High = July 15th 04:00 1.27576 and Low = July 17th 21:00 1.25602. This plot placed its 138.2 at 1.24848, just above the Mars 0-degree.
The market often disregards whipsaw candles' high or low, in plot's relevance.
Continuance of gold CFD XAU_USD 1-hour with APF and horizontal fib plot.
The High (also upper APF corner) was broken on July 12th. Price respected each extension level, 138.2, 161.8, and 200%. The top also hit the 300% expansion (red dotted diagonal line) of the APF.
A tighter plot: Low = July 13th 1564.20 and High = July 14th 1594.20
- retrace was to the 61.8 (same s wide plot's 138.2)
- extension to the 138.8 = 1605.18
Obviously, we like to illustrate support & resistance techniques. Here is a EUR/USD 30-min chart with MurreyMath1.0 (MML) and fib channels.
First, we drew a trend line using highs of July 4th 23:00 1.45520 and July 8th 12:00 1.42562.
We then aligned the 1st line of the fib channel to that trend line. We pulled the 2nd point for the fib channel plot to July 15th high 1.41864.
The fib channel's 100% expansion line caught the horizontal 161.8 extension. The +1/8th MML also there.
Andrew's Pitchfork (APF):
Handle = June 27th low 1.41015
Upper corner = July 3rd high 1.45769
Lower corner = July 12th low 1.38363
Add indicator AML for interior fibs.
Horizontal fib plot:
Low = July 12th low 1.38363
High = July 13th high 1.42811
The High was to the APF's median line (middle fork)
Pullback was 61.8 on 04:00 to 1.40129.
Bounce up off of the 61.8 hit resistance at the Lower_ML1, which is the 1st fib below the median line (ML).
That bounce up was a 78.6% retrace from High to 61.8.
*****
Once again: understanding S&R allows traders to take advantage of that knowledge to trade: 1) breakouts, bounces, between S&R.
One of the trades an experienced trader could have taken a BUY position after a BAJA bullish divergence formation registered on the 1-hour at close of 06:00 candle.
As mentioned previously, the 15-min EFT trigger entry was july 18th 08:00 open price of 1.40458.
The retrace fibs (not shown) en route up are exit targets, with the 78.6 intersecting the Lower_ML1 at July 19th 09:15. German data at 09:00 precluded waiting to exit at very top.
That left exit target at the 61.8 level of 1.41774, which was hit at 08:15. Reward = 130 pips
Stop-loss was just below the lowest pivot of 1.40129. Risk = 37 pips
Reward/Risk ratio = 3.5:1
SQ9(Price) set at start price of 1.14032, with direction up.
The 15-min zoom-in shows price action unable stay above the 225-degree level, and has retraced to the 88.6. Let's say we filled entry at 1.16664.
Key level is 1.16610 as that was previous Low for extension to downside.
Retrace fib plots Low = 15:45 1.15564 and High = 19:15 1.16645.
Currently at 23.6% fib of 1.16561
38.2% = 1.16370 (+26 net pips)
50% = 1.16216 (+42 net pips)
61.8% = 1.16063 (+57 net pips)
Tight retrace plot uses 18:00 Low = 1.15594
38.2 = 1.16535 (+10 net pips)
50 = 1.16432 (+20 net pips)
61.8 = 1.16328 (+31 net pips)
78.6 = 1.16181 (+45 net pips) same as SQ9 180-degree
Market usually respect more than one plot.
Our PSQ9 has Mars 0-degree and Moon 90-degree at 1.1599 for support.
Can target profit for price just above the 61.8 + spread and cushion = 1.1612.
S/L just above high of 1.16869 + 5 pips = 1.16920. Risk = 27 pips
Once price falls below the 38.2% fib of 1.16370, move S/L to break-even, or take partial profit, and move S/L to break-even (B/E).
Note: The IMF released a report on the EU today. It said investors not confident EU can resolve Greece problems. It also stated that bailouts unsustainable.
As volume returns, we can see the Euro losing ground during the 05:00 hour.
The attached EUR/CHF 15-min employs a APF plot:
Handle = July 19th 09:00 high 1.16546
Upper corner = July 19th 19:15 high 1.16869
Lower corner = July 19th 15:45 low 1.15564
Horizontal fibs; Low = July 18th Low 1.15994 High = July 19th 19:15 1.6869
We had pictured a short on earlier post. A retest of the high occurred at 01:15 to 1.16923, taking out any tight stop-loss orders.
After support at the 23.6, it has just touched the 38.2 of 1.16535. Let's watch for possibly more downward action and its interaction with S&R.
Attached is a split-screen of EUR/CHF 30-min charts.
On the left, we have the PSQ9 with yellow wide retrace fib plot. We can see the sharp drop occur during U.S. open at 13:30. Stop just shy of the 61.8% of 1.15995 and same as the Mars 0-degree.
That was the target, as take-profit programed for 1.1612.
Chart on right plots retrace from Low = 1.15564 as originally stated. It 61.8 of 1.16063 was also hit of course.
Our original S/L was too tight by 1 pip, so it is a good example of allowing more room. This example took some time as entry period was yesterday late U.S. with volume drying up.
Swing trading takes some patience. We also posted an EA that can assist in moving stop-loss to break-even when market hits a certain price. In this case it was the 38.2 of price of 1.16371.
Search keyword "FOR DOWNLOAD" in this thread. The EA is called Stop Loss Mover. Here's link:
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/198355
There is another S/L EA that is a bit more complicated. You can experiment with that one on a demo. It is called TrailingWithPartialCLose
Reward/Risk on this example was 54/30 net pips and ratio of 1.8 to 1.