The London Open - page 136
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New York Open - Thursday 19th February
Good afternoon all.
A fantastic morning had by all except Nicola, who seemed to be having a little well-deserved cat nap.
Pips galore on all GBP pairs and a few cheeky ones elsewhere including Ozzie & CAD.
A couple of big numbers out of States today so potentially another big day for USDJPY, who we’ve been touting higher for some time now.
Anyway, into the action…….
GBPUSD
• A nice run north today sees this quite possibly overbought at the moment
• Stuck beneath monthly and weekly pivots so need to see a pullback before going long again off 4hr 20 region
• Long-term daily 20 is still beneath the 50 so caution is required
• Not looking for position this afternoon here.
EURUSD
• Broken 4hr 20 and headed for 50 up at 12800
• Had a big run so can’t go long here
• Waiting for pullback
• Not looking for long position this afternoon
USDCHF
• Tired and looking likely to drag the other Swiss pairs down this afternoon.
• Waiting for break of 11725 targeting the 4hr 20 1st
USDJPY
• Big numbers will stimulate either buying or selling of Yen
• Favouring the upside on break of 93.85
GBPJPY
• As with cable, this pair has had a big run
• 4hr 20 just crossed 50 so positive for longer-term with USDJPY looking bid
• Awaiting 60m pullback before looking again
GBPCHF
• Looks tired having had a big one with GBP
• Looking for little reversal through 16900 to weekly pivot at 16830 region.
EURCHF
• Has had a good move up and now, along with GBPCHF and USDCHF looks a bit tired.
• A break of 14900 might see a play to 60m 20ema at 14800
Verdict…….
Eyeing up the CHF pairs for reversals. Watch the important levels
EURCHF – 14900
GBPCHF – 16900
USDCHF – 11725
Have a good afternoon………Ozzie and Cad to follow…..
A city trader...
The market sold off on no news on Tuesday and its rallied today onbasically no news. Some people may point to Obama's latest bail outplan. As far as I read it the nuts and bolts of it are that if you werestupid, if you borrowed too much money vs your income and assets, youget bailed out. This applies to banks or homeowners in the US. One ofthe guys on CNBC made a good point, if these homeowners who get bailedout see their houses go back up in value significantly from here whogets the p&l, the homeowner or the tax payer? I hate to say this but at the moment EM feels a like bit of an orphanedasset class, I feel like the man who got stuck with a load of Betamaxrecorders whilst his next door neighbour was selling VHS recorders likehot cakes (I'm sure the teenagers of today will liken this to DVD vs BluRay). The reasons for us feeling like Annie is that we are no longer acheap one way bet asset class and that in my view remains the case untilwe either widen out vs comparable credits or the G7 governments printingpresses actually start re-inflating the economies and therefore benefitcountries long of commodities. For the record Fitch downgraded a loadof Kazakh banks today, bearing in mind they are trading between 25 and45 I would argue this bad news is easily priced in. Friday tomorrow Iexpect even less activity.
Mr P...
Evening all
What a day and what perfect trades taken by you today.
GBP was the main driver this am and USDJPY this afternoon. Look at fx500clubblog.com for the video analysis...
Hundreds on offer and about time we nailed most of them...
Great to see those who have never made 100 pips in one day make that break..>Well done.
Congrats and see you tom.
D
London Open - Friday 20th February
Good morning all
CABLE
• GBP powered up and hit the WP at 1.4450 yesterday but has since broken down below the 4hr 20ma, showing signs of GBP weakness again.
• The 15min chart is showing further signs of weakness with the 60min 20ma just above at the 1.4280 level.
• Look for GBP strength or weakness across the board for direction this am.
• CABLE alone looks weak again but I want this confirmed in GBPJPY.
GBPJPY
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• Wait for break and look at USDJPY for direction in JPY this am.
GBPCHF
• GBP is trying to hold up above the 4hr 20ma at 1.6750.
• The DP will be 1st resistance level on 15min chart at 1.6805.
• Look for break and strength in GBP above the DP for a move higher.
• Tight stop below the 60min 20ma at 80.
• If GBP across the board weakens this am look for a break below the 4hr 20ma.
USDJPY
• We have read this like a dream and the USD is powering up well.
• Resistance at 94.50 at previous high on 60min chart.
• 15 min chart is channeling with support at DP 93.91 level and resistance at 94.22.
• Watch break of these levels. Give yourself a few pips either side.
EURJPY
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• Watch break of USDJPY and EURUSD for direction
EURUSD
• EUR as well as CABLE fell off heavily yesterday with USD strength coming into play.
• 60min trigger is down but the 15min chart shows signs of weakness below the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
EURGBP
• With GBP weakening last night against the USD EURGBP had a pop after testing the 0.8750 level.
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• Look for break of 35 level on downside and 65 on upside.
Its Friday…Lets keep the pips safe today after an excellent day yesterday.
Tight stops and less risk on your plays.
Dan
New York Open – Friday 20th February
Good afternoon all. I hope you’re feeling in the mood. I certainly am looking forward to a few more pips in the tin prior to the weekend.
Core CPI month on month numbers out this afternoon with expectations of a positive number after -0.1 last month.
The current trend over the last 5 months suggests that numbers could actually fall below expectations, which would prompt some selling of USD and if this is the case I’d expect USDJPY to fall off a little.
However, I am ‘hopeful’ that the forecasters are better at their jobs than I and that the numbers come in better than expected to see our longer-term USDJPY moving up.
GBPUSD-
• Looks pretty bid but no golden cross yet.
• Needs to break above WP & MP at 14400 level for push higher.
• Bounced off daily 20ema this a.m so not looking for position in this pair unless it breaks below 15m 50 at 14240.
EURUSD
• Bounced perfectly off 4hr 20ema this a.m
• Now breaking back below averages so short term short position preferred
• Needs to break 12560 to confirm move down but with that level some 40pips away may be a play to there to see what happens
• Awaiting 123 south on 5m chart.
EURGBP
• Back below the averages and with EURUSD looking weaker than GBPUSD at the moment the downside is preferred.
• Needs to break 0.8800 to show this will move lower.
• Will keep you posted as the session goes on with this as GBP could weaken rapidly.
USDJPY
• Hoping for good US data out at 1:30 and will take a long position on the break of 9420 if that happens.
USDCHF
• Will break up further if EURUSD falls. A little overbought from this morning in my opinion and bounce off 60m 20ema preferred.
GBPJPY
• Can’t really touch this pair with USDJPY looking bid and GBPUSD looking offered.
• Break of 13500 might see it higher at some point but back bench material for this afternoon.
EURJPY
• Needing to break 11800 for a push lower but again, being tugged down by EURUSD and up by USDJPY.
• Needs to break 11900 for a move to 12000.
• Not one for this afternoon and will be looking elsewhere.
GBPCHF
• Not interested in playing this retracement unless breaks 16900.
• Only 80 pips to downside but may be worth a small one IF USDCHF fails to move up.
EURCHF
• Took a small short back through the weekly pivot targeting 14900.
• Making higher highs so long term suggests higher.
• Looking for 123 on 60m chart.
VERDICT:-
USDJPY is the one I am sticking with for the time-being. We made a few pips on the way down this morning and I am thinking a break of .20 might see a move to .50 and then beyond IF breaking session highs from yesterday.
More to follow as things develop.
Have a good afternoon.
zZzak
Hi all
I am knackered but really pleased with the week and how the team is progressing...
This week i have seen controlled, consistent and relaxed trading from the group.
Hundreds of pips available and emails coming through saying how happy they are.
Well done Team London. Great effort and bring on the pips next week.
I am addicted to pips, i love pips, i adore pips...Infact i cant get enough pips!!! Thats what its all about and lets make even more pips from monday.
Happy Dan...See u then.
D
Morning all
Rollingstone i received your card on friday..Thanks very much.
When did you send it? Wasn't that mid December?
I still owe you that dinner when i am back in London.
Speak soon
D
Evening Pipsters
Trust everyone had a good weekend.
I have packed all weekend ready for my big move next saturday. How boring can it get!!!
Looking forward to monday already. See you in the room at 6.45am and notes will be out by 6.50am.
Off to cook a curry. Lets spice it up!!!
D
OK Pipsters,
This will be my final post for quite some time. I have continued to get my fix from the threads and followed the posts with relish, but effective tomorrow I shall be back in the corporate world - white shirts, dark suit and the tune to men in black ringing in my ears. It will be quarterly numbers, cost management and the all important business lunches to keep me sane.
I have secured my tickets for Wales versus Ireland (which I hope will be a Grand Slam fest). Dan good luck with the move and the Armitage family expansion and keep it real. Look forward to wearing that England shirt - at the current time I see no reason to have to worry for at least the next 5 years!! C'mon the reds.
All the best pipsters,
Boardroom Rockie
JPY AM London Open - Monday 23rd February
Good morning all.
I am doing Dan’s JPY notes today
USDJPY
• Had a big run last week and possibly just pulling back to 4hr 50sma at 92.0
• Below 92.80 could see an opportunity for a short position to that 4hr 50
• 4hr CCI now in negative, so not really a long prior to break up of 60m 50 at 93.70 although we could play a little bounce off the 4hr 50 with a tight stop below and see how it goes
GBPJPY
• Still looking strong with cable trying to move up but concerned that USDJPY falling will hinder any possible gains on this pair
• 135.40 is the level to look for should UJ make it back above the pivot
• Tread with caution on this pair. Cable has the daily 50 up ahead so with UJ looking a little weak at the moment the most likely direction would be down IF cable fails to break up with aggression
EURJPY
• Trapped at the top end of the daily 20/50 bo
• With EURUSD having moved so far up in a straight line, how much more can this go before it tires
• In my opinion these Yen pairs should all fall back to support
VERDICT
Although GBPJPY and EURJPY are above the averages, with EURUSD and GBPUSD looking a little tired I would not be buying the former 2 pairs at the moment.
I would prefer to trade USDJPY short as it’s below the averages, so looking for a break of 92.7
Have a good morning.
Zak