The London Open - page 137
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London Open Review - Monday 23rd February
Good morning Team London
Mr Trichet is speaking at 8.10am today.
CABLE
• GBP has re gathered its momentum and MP at 1.4470 is immediate support and look for long plays if this level can hold.
• The Golden Cross (4hr 20ma and 50ma) is positive for GBP.
• Daily 50ma will be resistance at 1.4575 level, however immediate resistance is at previous high at 1.4550.
• Look to buy close to the 60min 20ma and watch GBPJPY for strength.
• USDJPY is telling me this is a weak USD play so EUR and GBP are supported for now.
• Yes watch GBPJPY but USDJPY looks weak so wondering how much momentum GBPJPY will have this am.
EURUSD
• Broken Daily 20ma at 1.2865
• 15min support line and resistance at 1.2950.
• Watch break of either level for EUR play and watch EURJPY for help with EUR direction.
EURGBP
• This is a USD move and EUR and GBP are both gathering momentum.
• Ascending triangle forming on 60min chart.
• 0.8925 resistance and support around the 0.8800 level.
• Boxed between the 4hr 20ma and 50ma and look for immediate break for strength or weakness over GBP.
USDCAD
• USD weakness as mentioned is coming into play and USDCAD is now testing the Daily 20ma at the 1.2415 level.
• Look for further USD weakness and CABLE to power up and USDCAD to break through this level.
AUDUSD
• Again with USD weakness AUD has powered up to the Daily 20ma and WR1 at 0.6530 level.
• Look for break and look to buy so you are protected behind the 60min 20ma.
USDCHF
• Big moves came into play on the CHFs on Friday.
• Looks weak again but wont be trading unless the 60min 20ma comes into play so I can protect any short play.
GBPCHF
• Will get pulled around with GBP powering up and USDCHF looking weak.
• Look fort break back above the 60min 50ma at 1.6800 for GBP strength and a long play.
• Or wait for USDCHF to break lower and see break back below the 4he 50ma around the 1.6670 level.
Ok so USD looks weak…If USDJPY pushes lower and GBPUSD powers up then GBPJPY will get pulled around and lack momentum.
Lets be patient and wait for confirmation of direction this morning.
Dan
New York Open - Monday 23rd February
Good afternoon all.
Nothing doing this morning on my side with USDJPY looking pretty weak first thing. Had it been on the right side of the averages then I’d be going long on GBPJPY and EURJPY but that was not the case until late on so the moves on the latter two were not what I’d consider to be low-risk trades.
No U.S news to stimulate the market this PM looks like we’ll either have to get our bearing from what has already happened today.
GBPUSD-
• Not moved this morning as expected and some pullback or consolidation required.
• Can’t go long or short from here
• 4hr 20 has crossed up through 50 so long term bull run is intact
• Will leave this one on the bench for this session but a break down of 14600 could prompt a little reversal for 50pips or so
EURUSD-
• Looking weak and any move below 12800 might well see this lower
• 60m 20ema may hold price for a while so best to err on the side of caution with USDCHF looking held below weekly pivot at 11650
• Not really looking for anything here unless break of 12800
EURGBP-
• Break of support at 0.8800 this morning coupled with EURO weakness and GBP strength see this now looking likely to continue downward trend
• Way oversold now and need to wait for retracement back upto 60m 20ema
• Better opportunities elsewhere
USDJPY-
• Big run is on again with Friday’s highs being taken out
• Possible double top on 15m chart so need to wait for retracement back to 94.00 to see what happens
GBPJPY-
• big run and reversal play fancied.
• Look for break down through 138.00 targeting 15m 20 at 13750 then 60m 20ema at 13550.
EURJPY-
• Looking for break south of 121.00
USDCHF-
• Stuck below weekly pivot and not overly appealing at the moment.
EURCHF-
• Flat and boring
• Leaving it alone today
VERDICT…….
EURUSD below 12800. GBPJPY below 13800, EURJPY below 12100
Hi all
Popped my head into the afternoon session...
Great trade on GBPJPY and GBPCHF.
That must have been close to 90 pips on each.
See you morning pipsters tomorrow at 6.50am.
D
Morning allRollingstone i received your card on friday..Thanks very much.When did you send it? Wasn't that mid December?I still owe you that dinner when i am back in London.Speak soonD
Hi Dan
Hurry up with dinner, I'm starving. Lost my voice too, croaking like a goodun - why do men like ladies with croaky voices? And why do you think I was asked to say "well, ahoy there sailor"?
Anyway, if you would like to share your date with The Rock, rugby and curry as a threesome would be fab.
But, hey ho, I know you are mega busy. I am wasting away here though... might blow away in the wind... fainting with fatigue... not that you should be worried or anything.
Hope your move goes well.
Wafer thin RS
PS What do you do when you get a cold? I mean, you've got no nose, yeuch, must get really messy.
OK Pipsters,This will be my final post for quite some time. I have continued to get my fix from the threads and followed the posts with relish, but effective tomorrow I shall be back in the corporate world - white shirts, dark suit and the tune to men in black ringing in my ears. It will be quarterly numbers, cost management and the all important business lunches to keep me sane.I have secured my tickets for Wales versus Ireland (which I hope will be a Grand Slam fest). Dan good luck with the move and the Armitage family expansion and keep it real. Look forward to wearing that England shirt - at the current time I see no reason to have to worry for at least the next 5 years!! C'mon the reds.All the best pipsters,Boardroom Rockie
Bye Rock
Or should it be au revoir.
Would that be tomato relish? You'll turn into a big fatcat corporate mogul. Mind you, I like a man in a sharp suit.
Ohhhh ROCKIE, please don't stay away for ever. Who am I gonna spa with? I aint got not no-one nearly as silly as me. And you always kept it real. I guess I'll just have to chunter away to myself and keep Dan on his toes.
Love ya, kiss ya, miss ya already.
Enjoy your match but C'MON ENGLAND, 5 years, pah fooey.
But I've still got Dan
Ha ha, looks like you got the short straw Danny Boy.
London Open Notes - Tuesday 24th February
Good morning Team London
DOW fell 250 pips yesterday…We need confidence in this market and I am now wondering where it’s going to come fr
CABLE
Trying to hold and lots of support in the low 1.4400/50 region
Strong pullback to the 4hr 20ma but daily 50ma holding as resistance at 1.4575
60min chart and trigger suggests small pullback
15min chart however suggests up trend still and we should look to buy off 60min 20ma until this MA breaks. The price needs to bounce off the 1.4510/20 level for confirmation that support will hold.
Look for break back above 1.4575 for continuation of uptrend to DR1 as 1st resistance.
If the 60min 20ma breaks the 60min 20ma then look for 123 south.
Look at GBPJPY for help with direction.
EURUSD
60min chart shows support line and previous low at 1.2660. A break here would confirm the downtrend
15min chart is boxed and could go either way.
Look for break of support at 1.2700 then 1.2660 or break on the upside of DP at 1.2775.
Look at EURJPY for help with direction.
EURGBP
Broken triangle from yesterday as per the blog.
Below 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma suggesting further weakness is due but this will depend is GBPUSD can rally past 1.4575.
Look for selling opportunities close to the 60min 20ma but keep and eyr on CABLE strength. Would be good to see EURUSD break 1.2700 to help as well.
USDCAD
4hr 20ma looks set to cross the 4hr 50ma. If CABLE can find support look for this to cross with stop behind.
15min chart suggests further weakness as well and a break of 1.2465 would signal a break of the DP.
DAILY 20ma at 1.2428 which will offer support so bank before.
AUDUSD
60min chart looks a little mixed and we need to see confirmation of the 4hr 20ma holding for any long play.
15min chart suggests short term strength above the 60min 20ma. Look for bounce here at 0.6440 level with stop below the WP.
Trigger should come into play here.
GOLD
60min chart has formed a lower high and triangle is forming.
With stocks falling like a lead balloon surely GOLD will have another crack above the $1,000 level at some point soon.
However short term suggests box strategy on the 15min chart.
Support at$984.00 but more importantly the 4hr 20ma is offering most support.
This MA was tested yesterday and I wonder if the market would like to test it again. Patience required and wait for 123 if this level is tested.
On the upside look for 123 off the 60min 20ma.
Thanks
Dan
JPY Desk AM - Tuesday 24th February
Good morning all.
Notes for this morning’s JPY & CHF pairs….
USDJPY
• Surely on it’s way back upto 100.00 after a little retracement back to 4hr 20ema yesterday.
• Those in at 92.15 last week are now 300 pips up, so only another 500 to go!!
• Difficult to go long at these levels at the moment and others preferred
GBPJPY
• The beast is back, but with what looks like a potential double top on 60m chart
• Other GBP pairs are looking tired so would expect this to drop back a little
• Quite happy to sit and watch this one having picked up a few nice pips yesterday on the break down through 13800, where it may present yet another shorting opportunity for us
• Keep an eye on cable and USDJPY for confirmation
EURJPY
• A break down through 12700 on EURUSD should see this pair lower and has a similar set-up to GBPJPY
• Although in a strong uptrend it doesn’t look that appealing to just jump into and not looking for a position here
USDCHF
• Looks like it’s found some support after a little flush out
• 4hr and 60m 20/50 directly below and in positive, so with EURUSD looking quite bearish this could be a northerly mover this morning
• Wait for break of 11700
EURCHF
• Looking like a break of 14875 could be the number to look out for here for a push up
• Lots of traffice en-route so not the best looking of charts but might be good for a little 20-30 pip play
GBPCHF
• Would really like to see a short position here but can’t see a decent entry yet
• How much will it fall with EURCHF and USDCHF looking likely to crawl up?
• Might be a play with minimum stakes if GBP weakens across the board, but not one to get carried away with. Others preferred
VERDICT………..
USDCHF above 11700
GBPJPY below 13800
A quiet morning with a few trading GBPJPY like true professionals.
Finally GBPJPY and CABLE have broken their respective triangles.
Keep an eye on GOLD, EURUSD, USDCAD and u cant forget the CHFs..
Leading us up to an exciting US Open.
See u in the room.
D
New York Open - Tuesday 24th February
Good afternoon all.
Notes for this today’s JPY & CHF pairs….
USDJPY
• Surely on it’s way back upto 100.00 after a little retracement back to 4hr 20ema yesterday.
• Those in at 92.15 last week are now almost 400 pips up, so only another 400 to go!!
• Difficult to go long at these levels at the moment and others preferred
GBPJPY
• The beast is back, but with what looks like a potential double top on 60m chart
• Other GBP pairs are looking tired so would expect this to drop back a little
• Quite happy to sit and watch this one having picked up a few nice pips yesterday on the break down through 13800, where it may present yet another shorting opportunity for us should it fall back through the 60m 20ema.
• Tricky with UJ so bid, even though Cable looks weak
EURJPY
• A big run on the back of EURUSD strength sees this at dangerously high levels for the short term
• Will be looking for short through 12200 targeting WR1 at 12142
USDCHF
• Looks like it’s found some support after but ver messy indeed and cannot see an entry here at all
• Bench material today
EURCHF
• Not looking for anything here after a little falsie this morning
• Looks nice to downside though a little scruffy
• Not interested
GBPCHF
• Broke nicely through the 16800 level for a few points
• Now looks like a short potential on 15m with a stop above the pivot
VERDICT………..
Sterling weakness
GBPJPY below 13800 to 13700
EURJPY below 12200 to 12120
USD EUR - Tuesday 24th February
AUDUSD
• 60min triangle forming.
• DP has just broken on the downside and looking for USD strength across the market.
• Watch break of the WP at 0.6435
USDCAD
• USD strength coming into the market
• Watch break of WP at 1.2530 and look for small pullback onto the 60min 20ma.
EURGBP
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• Could go either way with GBPUSD misbehaving today.
• If GBPUSD holds the DP and breaks the Daily 50ma then EURGBP will break back down through the WS1 level.
EURUSD
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and the Daily 20ma on the 60min chart
• 15min chart suggests weakness with the 60min 20ma below the 60min 50ma.
• A mixed direction but a break back above the 1.2790 would signal EUR strength.
CABLE
• Boxed between the Daily 50ma and the MP at 1.4570 and 1.4470.
• Being pulled heavily by GBPJPY which is overbought on the 60min chart.
Verdict
Not a good day for trading.
Technical setups are poor at the moment so patience required.