The London Open - page 133
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Morning Trade - Tuesday 10th February
Good morning all
New format in notes today…Hope you like…
CABLE
• The 60min chart suggests a strong uptrend still with the 4hr 20ma above the 50ma
• 1.5000 is key resistance. Options a) Look for short plays off it or 2) Look for a break.
• 15min chart – Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma. Look for break.
• Levels to break are 1.4875 and 1.4790.
• Be careful of shorting into the 4hr 20ma. If the break happens only take 50% of the gap to the 4hr 20ma.
• Remember to watch USDJPY and GBPJPY to help with direction.
EURUSD
• The 60min chart is oscillating either side of the 4hr 20ma and 50ma suggesting there is no trend.
• The triangle was broken yesterday on the upside and met with heavy resistance at WR1 at 1.3090 level.
• 15min chart suggests weakness in the EUR. Previous low at 1.2808 so a potential small gap on the break of 1.2800 down to bottom of the triangle could be on.
• Only look for a long EUR play if the price breaks above WP and 60min 20ma at 1.2925.
• Remember to keep an eye on USDJPY and EURJPY for help with direction.
EURGBP
• The 60min chart suggests a strong downtrend with the 4hr 20ma below the 50ma.
• The EUR is under pressure and more so against GBP at the moment.
• Today needs to see CABLE break back above 1.4875 to test 1.5000 again for EURGBP to continue its downtrend.
• The 15min chart has been sold overnight aggressively and is now a little distance from the 60min 20ma. Consequently there is a small risk of a pullback if GBP weakens this am.
• If GBP powers up today again then look for further weakness through the DS2 at 0.8630 level.
USDCAD
• The 60min chart suggests a triangle is forming.
• The 4hr 20ma is below the 50ma suggesting weakness but this will depend on further weakness across the board.
• The 15min chart is being supported by the DP at 1.2200.
• Look for break of this level to test the previous low of triangle at 1.2150 level.
GOLD
• 60min chart suggests weakness coming back into GOLD for the time being with the 4hr 20ma crossing the 4hr 50ma on the downside.
• There will be strong support at the MP and Daily 20ma around the $885 level.
• The 15min chart - A double top formed last night and weakness came into the market over Asia session.
• Previous low at $894.00 suggesting a break here would signal further weakness down to the WS1 at $888.00
OIL
• Still waiting for my $43.00 to break.
• Resistance on 4hr chart is $50.00
Happy pip hunting..
Dan
JPY Desk - Tuesday 10th February
Good morning all.
I Will - at Dan's request - try to make these notes as bullet-point-style as possible in order to try and simplify things for you.
As ever, your feedback is much appreciated.
USDJPY
• 60m Head & Shoulders pattern has failed to break neckline at 91.00.
• Need to see clear break of that level for push lower.
• 4hr trend (84cci) is up but 60m trend is down, so conflicting
• Below daily pivot & above weekly pivot so consolidating for time being.
Verdict:- Leave well alone until break up of 91.60. Not looking for short with big support below.
GBPJPY
• Big strong uptrend looks to be tiring. Price now below 60m 20ema.
• Possible double top on 60m.
• Again, 60m cci is down whilst 4hr is up - albeit with divergence.
• Wedged between 60m 20&50
Verdict:-A break 136.15 to the upside might see this higher but I am well aware this could fall through the 60m 50sma and pivot. See what happens at the support level at 134.60 or play the northerly if usdjpy and cable hold up along with sterling strength accross the board.
EURJPY
• Big double top on 60m chart helped the EURUSD position from yesterday's US session.
• Sat on weekly pivot at 117.50 which may support.
• Also supported of DS1.
• Next major support at 116.25 from lows of Jan 30th.
• 60m 20 crossing 50 so sentiment is almost to the downside.
• Watch EURUSD & USDJPY for confirmation of next direction.
Verdict:-Wait for break below DS1 at 116.90
Summary.....
A mixed bag overall with EURJPY looking weak. USDJPY is looking flat again and sterling giving rise to a slightly bid looking GBPJPY.
Will reluctantly wait for break of 136.15.
Zak
Morning all
This was a bad morning for me...I had everything covered but i pre empted a move up with USDJPY which would have given the support needed into GBPJPY and CABLE. The 60min charts did look toppy (as explained) but the 15minute charts showed small signs of support.
I saw that GBPCHF was falling off and with the break of the 60min 20ma, GBP had no chance of rallying and the 2 breakouts in GBPJPY and CABLE became fakeouts which again made USDCAD a fake out as well on the downside.
Excuse the pun but i did my nu*s this am and thats the 1st time in 2 months. I am usually controlled but today got the better of me..I feel like i was put in a washing machine on full spin and chucked out to dry...
Looking back it is always easy but i stupidly should have been patient waited for GBPCHF and USDJPY to break down, hit GBPJPY and CABLE short and make loads of pips!!!
I am now going to drown myself in a bowl of milk and not coming up for air!!
See u later
D
Afternoon JPY Desk - Tuesday 10th February
Good afternoon guys.
Some pretty tough conditions out there today on these Yen pairs with USDJPY messing around once again and pulling everything about with it.
EURJPY does look quite appealing above the monthly pivot IF it breaks up through the 118.70 level, but will go into more detail shortly.
USDJPY
• 60m 20 has crossed negative through the 50 indicating bearishness unless 60m 50 at 91.60 is breached.
• 4hr 20 is above the 4hr 50 indicating strength.
• Price action is horrendous
• No news until 4PM
• Weekly pivot at 91.00
Verdict-Wait for clearer direction. A break of weekly pivot on the downside or support and break of 91.60 to the north.
GBPJPY
• 60m 20 has crossed under 50 indicating weakness
• 4hr 20 still above 50 indicating longer term strength
• Support level broken
• Below daily pivot
Verdict-Wait for direction with USDJPY and Cable. Can’t sell above 134.00 and can’t go long below resistance at 136.00
EURJPY
• Broken up through pivot.
• EURUSD looks bid
• Still beneath monthly pivot.
• 118.60 is key resistance level
Verdict-Can’t touch this unless USDJPY pushes up through the pivot.
Summary…..
Hold fire on all Yen pairs unless wanting a very short-term EURJPY on back of EUR strength. Not one to get carried away with but 60m 20ema seems to be holding.
Although still under 60m 50 it does look the best of the bunch with a 30pip stop.
Have a good day.
Zak
Afternoon Trade - Tuesday 10th February
CABLE
• A lot depends on USDJPY and GBPJPY so keep an eye for on these for direction
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma. Wait for breakout.
EURUSD
• A solid rally this am and 123 a triangle is forming.
• Look for support off the 60min 20ma and a break back above the DP for a retest of the old high at 1.3075.
• Any break back below the WP at 1.2890 would signal a retest of the lows.
EURGBP
• Strong EUR this am against USD and GBP.
• Watch the 60min chart for support and a break back through the 4hr 20ma.
• Any break back below the 60min 20ma would signal a retest of the lows.
AUDUSD
• Boxed between the 4hr 20m and 60min 20ma.
• A lot of support below with MP and WP so not looking great for selling opportunities at present. Play the gaps very carefully if they arise.
• If AUD rallies this afternoon look for break above the DP at 0.6750 for a retest to the highs.
USDCAD
• Got hurt with shorting USDCAD this am. Its at the DP as we speak and break could be on but reluctant to jump in again.
• Will be watching carefully and watching further USD weakness in the market place.
GOLD
• The 60min 20ma and DP have been broken and uptrend is now back on after a very short lived down move.
• Look for a 123 long if it can hold above this WP level.
Good luck
Dan
Hi
Well made back my pips late am and afternoon after my shabby london open.
Wasnt easy and had to take risk into 4hr 20ma´s but glad to do have clawed it back.
Flat for the day and i am happy with that.
See you all tom.
D
Morning Trade - Wednesday 11th February
Good morning all
Well done to those who held the GBP move yesterday...
Lesson
1) Important to look back and watch for that 60min Moving Average cross over… A very powerful sign!!
2) Try and have stop losses behind the 60min 20ma as often as possible.
3) The 4hr 20ma is a key MA. Look for breaks of this for true direction as seen yesterday.
CABLE
A powerful move yesterday with the 4hr 20ma crossing on GBPJPY, USDJPY and GBPUSD
The price has broken the WP and MP so we are back in our downtrend again.
The 4hr 20ma is a little oversold so we need to be aware of a small pullback.
As mentioned we are looking for a firm resistance eg the 60min 20ma so we can protect ourselves with our stop.
Look for a more weakness today but lets be patient on our short term book and look for correct entries etc with triggers
1.4575 the WP is the 1st line of major resistance
EURUSD
EURUSD has held firm with GBP weakness so yes EURGBP has popped.
60min chart suggesting support line at 1.2850 level.
Any break below the 15min 50ma would signal weakness into the EUR.
It’s a messy looking chart overall and feel GBP will be the focus again this am
EURGBP
With EURUSD holding EURGBP has been well supported.
60min chart suggests a little overbought on the 84 CCI and trigger is too high so worried about momentum.
Wait for next trigger for another push higher
The 4h4 50ma should hold as support at 0.8875 level.
Lets wait for the 4hr 20ma to catch up to make a real test to break back above the Daily 20ma and 50ma around the 0.9000 level.
USDCAD
60min chart is still vvv messy.
1.2500 / 1.2550 is heavy resistance.
Look for clear break of resistance level for move higher
At moment will stay away as 60min chart looks unappealing
AUDUSD
Boxed between the 4hr 50ma and 20ma
Previous low at 0.6500. A break through here would signal a push towards the WS1 level and DS1 at 0.6450 for 1st level of support.
GOLD
60min chart has a strong resistance level at $918.00
Look for a break through this for a further push higher
I still like this to $1,000
Look for support off the 4hr 20ma and use triggers on 60min chart
Enjoy
Dan
Morning Trade - Thursday 12th February
Good morning London
Ok let’s watch the JPYs this am for their respective breaks as they will give us a little direction.
Would like to see
USDJPY break 89.65
GBPJPY break 128.67
EURJPY break 115.72
-------------------------------------------------------------
CABLE
60min chart suggests a downtrend with the price below the 60min 20ma.
Any break back above the 60min 20ma and DP at 1.4408 would suggest a pullback to the DR1 level at 1.4500 level.
1.4300 is official support and any break below here would signal further weakness in GBP.
Watch the trigger as could get in earlier with tight stop above the 60min 20ma
This will depend on GBPJPY, GBPCHF and any weakness across the board in GBP.
EURUSD
A messy looking chart…A dog chasing its tail has more direction!!
4hr MA´s are flat and could break either way
A 60min triangle is forming and you should wait for the break.
EURGBP
60min 20ma holding support but I do wonder if it is running out of steam.
A Break above WR1 would signal further strength in the EUR above the 0.9000 level.
If GBPUSD finds support and breaks its respective DP, watch EURGBP test and break it’s DP at 0.8950 for a test of its 60min 50ma down at 0.8930 level
USDCAD
The 1.4540 level was again tested for the 4th time yesterday with the weak CAD figures.
The 60min 20ma was too far from the break for a real push through and with GBP having a quiet day the USD couldn’t power up
If USD strengthens this am look for a break of the WR1 and then a test of the 1.2540 and break of this level.
AUDUSD
Still boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
A small fake out yesterday with a test of the previous low at 0.6580.
Look for a break below 0.6575 for a true break to test the WS1 around the 0.6400 level
Any break back above the 60min 20ma would signal strength back in to the AUD but confirm this with a 123 play.
GOLD
Well done to those who are still long
The old high has been broken and our target of $1,000 to start with is not too far away.
60min chart is overbought now and $950.00 will be resistance for the time being.
$930.00 the old resistance will be immediate support just below the DP at $932.00.
Hungry for pips!!!
Dan
Morning JPY Desk - Thursday 12th February
Good morning all.
I hope you are all well.
The cheeky little USDJPY reversal play yesterday P.M turned out ok in the end, so glad that some of you profited from an otherwise quiet session.
This morning doesn’t show too much promise unless certain levels are broken.
USDJPY
• Back below all the averages with 4hr 20ema making it’s way toward the 4hr 50 for that big crossover.
• Big support line coming in from lows of January to lows of yesterday.
• WS1 directly below the support line so needs to break both to see a move lower.
• Watch for break of 89.65
GBPJPY
• Sitting waiting for extra downward pressure coming from 4hr 20 which is trying to cross 4hr 50
• All m.a’s overhead blocking any assault to the upside.
• No longer oversold
• Weekly S1 at 128.65 so needs to break that level before looking closer
EURJPY
• A few sly pips poached by some yesterday playing the reversal
• Still sat on 4hr 50sma
• Low of Monday at 115.65 needs to go before a push much lower.
• Waiting for break of .95 which would then see the push to the .65 and possibly beyond.
• A bit messy with EURUSD looking like it’s not sure where to go.
Summary
Just playing the waiting game on these pairs at the moment.
Not interested in looking for long positions, only shorts and these levels need to be broken before I get toooo excited.
The break of 115.95 on EURJPY is the favoured pick, with a view to adding to the position if 115.65 gets hit.
You’ll be pleased to know that I will have more viewing space available to me for NYC, so we’ll cover all the usual pairs, not just Yens.
Have a great morning.
Zak
Afternoon JPY Desk - Thursday 12th February
Good afternoon all.
Although dan will do the notes for ozzie and cad etc, I will be covering them and keeping an eye on them from today.
Just for the record then, so as not to cause any confusion, we will cover the following
GBPUSD GBPJPY GBPCHF
EURUSD EURJPY EURCHF
USDJPY USDCHF USDCAD
AUDUSD
James will pop in from time to time to talk about Gold.
Obviously I will just be keeping an eye on the pairs and really want us to focus on the 2 or 3 that I feel are going to move. I don’t want to get caught in the trap of flitting from one chart to the next, confusing everyone and missing set-ups. It’s been tried and tested and simply doesn’t wo
This afternoon we see US unemployment claims & retail sales numbers in the next 15mins so keep purse strings locked for the moment.
USDJPY
4hr golden cross looking like it wants to happen on the 60m chart.
WS1 directly below.
Needs to break below 89.65
Not interested in long
GBPJPY
Golden cross happened this morning and looking weak
Need to wait for retracement to 60m 20 as big falls need some consolidation
Wait for USDJPY for direction but not looking for longs
EURJPY
Hasn’t quite managed to hit the WS1 level ye
Good cross looking likely of 4hr 20&50 indicating more downside potential.
A break of 115.00 will be a good indication with EURUSD following suit.
EURUSD
Has made new lows and with 4hr 20 headed toward crossing down through the 50 more falls look inevitable.
Needs to break 1.2800 to convince me
EURCHF
Entered this one at around 14930 anticipating the break down.
Need to wait for retracement on 15m chart now we’ve had a little move
GBPUSD
Still in a strong downtrend sterling is in big trouble again after having a cracking week last week.
Can’t touch it at the momen
Summary-sterling still looking very weak across the board but having falling so far already it’s impossible to just to jump in
With US figures coming in better than expected on the retail sales front USDJPY moving up is going to possibly present some difficulty in finding short opportunities with any Yen pair.
USDCAD does look quite appealing if it breaks south through the weekly pivot at 1.1580
Have a good afternoon