OzFx System :) 100-800 Pips Per Trade - page 15
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Trade Update +300
Hello Friends,
Trades from this morning are all going in our favor big time. So far we already have banked +300 pips plus more to come
Currently Open Positions:
1. EUR/JPY - Short - 2nd lot closed at +100
2. AUD/JPY - Short - 2nd lot closed at +100
3. NZD/JPY - Short - 1st lot closed at +100
4. EUR/GBP - Long - Already had 3rd lot closed at +150
Month Total: +1615
Trade Update +450
Hello friends,
As soon as I finished writing my previous post prices move incredibly in our favor banking us total of +450 pips
Currently Open Positions:
1. EUR/JPY - Short - 3rd lot closed at +150
2. AUD/JPY - Short - 3rd lot closed at +150
3. NZD/JPY - Short - 3rd lot closed at +150
4. EUR/GBP - Long - Already had 3rd lot closed at +150
Month Total: +1765
thanks for sharing this system
this is my latest trade... using ur system... GJ 540 pips and still on the run.. i use OzFx system TPL for daily and enter position at 15min chart using another system for scalping. it works fine... but the disadvantage for scalping is that i have to monitor my trade... but i keep the position for daily running... so thanks guy... hope u all a happy trade & good pips!
Thanks
I just wanted to say thanks OZ. I placed the trade on the eur/jpy last night and I am presently up 160 pips so far.
I have been watching this system for a few weeks and I am happy to report very impressive results.
ONCE AGAIN, THANKS
OzFx,
I have an idea about the moving SL, and would like your thoughts whether this is more profitable:
Once we got a signal, open the usual five trades, each with their own TP values of 50 pips distance from each other, except the fifth trade, of course.
Once the first TP is hit, move the remaining four's SL to BE.
If the second TP is hit, move the remaining three's SL up by 50 pips.
Do this until the first four TP hits. The last trade will let loose until the next signal emerge.
....
Hi Azmel,
Thank you for your excellent contribution with the EA so far. It looks great. We have a few other EA's over at Forex Factory OzFx thread as well. They all work well in their own ways. However, having beein demo trading with the Oz method since the beginning of the year, I came to the conclusion that we can realize the full potential of the method by manually analyzing trades. The EA's do a commendable job at detecting possible signals, but I still feel that artificial intelligence can sometimes fall short of accounting for delicate nuances that only human discretion can understand. Therefore, I've been analyzing the charts and manually picking out only high probability signals by confirming trends on lower timeframes, and also taking into account the bigger picture e.g. near by support/resistance; pending fundamental events etc. This hybrid approach combining the Oz signals with manual analysis has helped me to keep winning percentage very high and stay out of some false signals.
So having said all that, my point is I really believe that, to be able to use this method profitably in all types of market environments (i.e. trending or ranging), the focus does not necessarily have to be on perfecting a robot to determine entries, because in my opinion it will be hard to make it as reliable as human discretion. Alternatively, I feel that the aspect of this method that may also be suitable for programming into an EA and optimizing it per each currency pair is the stop loss/profit management aspect, which may add a new dimension to our quest to improve the overall profitability of this system even more. I was pleasantly surprised that you had almost the same ideas as me when it comes to using trailing stop to tighten the profit taking mechanism. I posted my ideas about this in Oz's thread at Forex Factory, which I have copied for your consideration below. What I would like to ask, if it is not too much of a burden for you, is would you please consider just coding a stand alone SL/TP EA that only manages trades that are manually opened based on the OzFx signals, with the additional trailing stop scheme added to it. You can see my proposed rules in the attached post below (which are very similar to what you mentioned above). I see the possibility of adding your strategy for final exit based on indicators turning the opposite direction. This would mean that the 5th and final lot will be closed out when it either reverts back to hit a by-tick trailing stop or gets an exit signal from the indicators.
I apologize for a long message. I feel that this issue is one of the most crucial in using a trading system successfully and consistantly. With such optimization of profit management, I really believe that we can survive even the most volatile markets. We might even have the option of staying out of the market altogether during those ranging markets because we would have the profits that we were able to maximize during the periods with favorable market conditions.
Please let me know if this is something that you could spare some time to look into. I would not want to bother you if it is at all an inconvenience. I just feel that this could be an alternative for us OzFx traders to use if and when the complete hands-off EA's that are being used run into some hard markets in which they cannot perform effectively.
Thank you again for your brillience, leadership, and spirit of sharing. God bless you.
Tony
PS. I've attached a SL/TP EA called OzFx Manager V3_1, which was developed by DGC at the FF thread for your reference. I'm currently using this to help implement the original take-profit rules on my manually opened trades. I'm hoping to replace it with something more along the lines of what you and I are thinking. I hope to put the ideas through some forward testing so we can compare results with the original method and share the findings with our fellow traders.
Hi Lac_raz,
...
IMO, it doesn't matter how good a system is in picking good trades for you, you can lose much of your profit if you don't have a good exit or profit taking strategy. And, in my humble opinion, protecting your profit is not just about greed or wanting to squeeze everything out of a trade. It's also about having that profit become a cushion for you when you encounter a few consecutive losses, as you mentioned. Hence the reasoning behind the saying: cut your losses, let your winners run, protect your profit.
....
... I still have two concerns when it comes to risk/reward management.
1. As you mentioned, the maximum drawdown per trade is big because of the lot size necessary to achieve a scale-out profit-taking strategy that yields acceptable returns.
I've been thinking a lot about this as this was my only primary concern with the Oz method. Even with the phenomenal win/loss rate (about 85%), it still scares me to think of the size of a losing trade. However, after more thinking, I concluded that there's really no way to avoid that without affecting the system's ability to generate big wins. The core components of this system that allows it to generate big wins, in terms of $ amount per trade, is the average pip gains and the initial lot size....
...Then I would focus my attention on maximizing the profit we get from the winners, since this system's primary virtue is in its ability to pick high probability winners. I think if we can achieve absolute maximum per winner, most of our winners will be in the range of 200 pips, 300 pips range. That should easily offset the occasional 100 pip losers. This leads me to my second observation about possible enhancement on the current method.
2. With the current method, I see a lot of trades go as far as 150 pips on first 3 lots, then 0 on 4th lot and 0 on 5th lot. Imagine if we just pulled stop up to +50 after 2nd lot closes, or even 3rd lot closes. Even if the trend comes to an end after 3rd lot closes, and reverts back, we would still have 50 pip x 2 lots to add to the total winning, making it 250 pips gain rather than just 150. IMHO, I feel that, though we need to leave room for movement to allow the trade to progress as far as possible, 200-250 stop loss may not be necessary. And I think that the OzFx system has proven to perform superbly in detecting strong trends. I don't think a strong trend should range up and down in excess of 100 pips like that. Because if that's the case, then it means the system hasn't done a very good job at detecting genuine trends. That would be more like a range trading system. From past results that we all have witnessed with the OzFx up until now, I think it has shown to be a solid performer in picking strong trends. And aside from the few false trades that turned negative and stopped out very early, all of the winners so far have shown to have good momentum and minimal ranging behavior (most never exceeded 100 pips retracement at any given time).
After considering the above mentioned point, this is what I propose to the group, and maybe generate further discussions.
I've boiled it down to one simple variation on the risk/reward management aspect of the method. And that is to consider moving stop loss up from BE to 50 pips after 3rd target closes at +150 pips. That leaves the buffer zone of 100 pips, and growing as the trade progresses. I feel that if after doing that, the trade reverts back all that way to hit the stop, there's a likely chance that it was going to go on to hit BE anyways. This way we get to keep some of the profits (extra 100 pips).
Now, if we feel that 100 pips is a good size for trailing stop for a pair, we can trail that, either automatically by tick, or in increments i.e. every 50 pip progress in price, move stop up another 50 pips, to keep the distance at 100. For example, after price reaches 4th target at 200, move stop up to 100 and let 5th lot run with a by-tick trailing stop of 50 or even less, or no by-tick trailing stop and just close out at a logical final target (support/resistance, fibonacci levels etc.)
Another thing we can consider is what a few others have mentioned already, that is the possible use of Average True Range to derive the most suitable size for trailing stop for each pair at the time the trade is taken. In other words 100 pips may not be suitable for all pairs as a trailing stop, and the most suitable size for trailing stop might change for each pair from one week to the next.
Finally to sum this all up, I think that a potentially useful and profit enhancing EA we may consider experimenting with is one that does the following:
1. Calculate and apply the initial stop loss based on current ATR for the pair being traded.
2. Move hard stop to BE after first target closes at +50 pips. (as in the original method)
3. When lot 3 closes at +150, move hard stop from BE up to +50 pips (or 150 - ATR).
4. When lot 4 closes at +200, move hard stop up to +100 pips (or 200 - ATR).
5. When price reaches +250, apply a by-tick trailing stop and let the 5th lot run until it comes back and hit the trailing stop. Size of this final trailing stop to be determined, but should be tighter than ATR, since when price approaches the end of a run, it usually slows down to very small movements from what I've seen. (30-50 pips may suffice).
....
+550 Pips In One Day
Hello Friends,
What a great Friday we had. We were able to bank +550 pips in 3 trades which were opened the same morning. I expect these pairs to consolidate a little bit before falling further next week. I am holding all my positions for now.
Friday was a great day to end Feb. We achieved a total of +1865 pips which is more than Jan. Last month not only was short but we also faced slow market movement for first 12 or so days due to Chinese New Year holidays, plus I had my personal 3 days off. I hope everyone achieved similar success.
If you would like then please leave a feedback here
Currently Open Positions:
1. EUR/JPY - Short - 3rd lot closed at +150
2. AUD/JPY - Short - 4th lot closed at +200
3. NZD/JPY - Short - 4th lot closed at +200
4. EUR/GBP - Long - Already had 3rd lot closed at +150
Have a great weekend.
Oz
should azmels EA loadet into the Daily Timeframe or is this hardcoded ?
thanx and regards
clarc
Hi OzFx.
Firstly want to thank you for your simple and great system.I will start testing this system in comming week.
And I have some questions about signals.Are these results based on the signals you send to subscribers and want to to know do you use these signals in your own trade?Have you tested the written EAs for system?Which one is exactly doing the rules of system?
Thanks
A little indicator with signal arrows and a coloured balance line.
The arrows can be shifted (entry on the open of next bar).
A little indicator with signal arrows and a coloured balance line. The arrows can be shifted (entry on the open of next bar).
Hello
If this would alert, would be great, maybe someone can do it?
Regards