The Simba Con Man - page 20
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Very interesting. Simba has screen shots of doubling and tripling accounts in a month, yet his c2 systems are tanking...
What's up with that?
nosediving
Very interesting. Simba has screen shots of doubling and tripling accounts in a month, yet his c2 systems are tanking... What's up with that?
Jet,
What are you implying?...My C2 systems are not tanking,they tanked months ago,this led me to change my trading methods and consequently helped me in improving my trading results....you have an investor password to check whatever results I post at the Forum,so,use it if you think there is anything unclear going on.
You know,to treble an account in a month,you have to take a level of risk that can only be defined as exceptionally high...and if you just bother to check the trade by trade detail of the C2account,you will see there were 24 or 25 winning trades in a row,just before the debacle,and,obviously this kind of precision helps a lot in trebling an account,at the beginning...then it leads to hubris and to self destruction when not checked by price action reality.
Yes ,I have screenshots of trebling accounts in a couple of months,and I have shown that I can have an account that grows 150% approx in a year and a half at C2..and then destroy or halve the account in one month...I stopped trading the C2 accounts,one was closed several months ago,the other hasn`t had but 2 or 3 trades in the last 3months,BUT I intend to continue trading it,if only to put it again above initial equity...but,frankly this is not my priority.
Believe it or not,at the time of the winning trades in a row,I multiplied by 8 my very high leverage small account,while increasing almost 50% the big one,with very low leverage,from October to mid December...then from December to January I destroyed the small account and halved the big one,so,I stopped trading for several weeks,analyzed all my past trades,and looked for new viewpoints on trading,like going to seminars on trading the ES,subscribe to Igor`s training,chat with fellow traders and read a lot of books while I recovered my confidence...and I am trying to share the distilled results of those experiences.
The difference,in my case, is in the use of chart patterns,they add a reality check component that I lacked once my cyclical model tanked....
If you remember my introductory line at my other thread it says "A few weeks ago,I bought a book that improved my trading results,and helped me in building a new base of trading knowledge as to push me into asking the writer to allow me to explain several of his trade tactics."...AND I meant it.
Since I didn`t understand the meaning of your comments,I have to use the "IF" to reply to you..If you are implying that by any means the results I am posting at my other thread are manipulated,I remind you that I posted the investor password,and that most trades are posted a few minutes after the time of entry...if ,instead of the former,what you implied is that you didn`t understand how it was possible for both results(trebling and destroying accounts) to coexist,well,unfortunately they go hand in hand when a high winning rate is the companion of an unacceptable level of risk....but in this case they do not just coexist,My Christmas debacle led me to change my strategy,and the addition of chart patterns has been the key to keep it on the right track,that is why I wanted to share them,because I feel that everybody,newbie or experienced ,need them to trade with consistency.
jbfx,
Thanks for your kind comments
...No,I didn`t forget to put my stops,it was worse,I kept adding to the losing position,it was an unforgettable lesson in hubris motivated by the fact that I had had 24 or 25 winning trades in a row before the debacle(they are there at C2 for everybody to check),this led me to think I had an almost perfect system...which I hadn`t,so the market taught me a very expensive lesson.
You know ,everybody can destroy an account,and most of us have destroyed a few of them,what everybody can not do is have 24 winning trades in a row nor double or treble an account not even taking high levels of risk...I am guilty of ALL of them..Shall I keep what I learnt from these experiences for myself?This is a public Forum,but I have never raised the issue of my C2 accounts when things went well with them,it has always been another person to raise the issue when they started to go bad,or,as in this case,when they tanked...I don`t wonder why,usually it is clear as water
...
You know,I have always said I am a bad trader,and as long as I can destroy an account I will consider myself so,but I am working on it and trying to share what I learnt from my experiences ...and I intend to keep doing so.
To both of you...Thanks for increasing my motivation.
To everybody else...The fact that I have doubled,then halved,then trebled,then semidestroyed an account ,then showed a method that is steadily increasing an account Equity,derived from my past experiences...Adds or detracts value from what I have to explain at my other thread?Think about it,if you decide it detracts,avoid my posts like the pest,if you think it adds then you are welcome to ask any pertinent questions that can help you in avoiding some of the market landmines that are there for everybody to step on.
Regards
Simba
Hey Simba,
I am not criticizing at all. My hat goes off to you for standing up to your learning.
I think you are definitely going in the right direction when it comes to looking for indicators with as little lag as possible, as well as concentrating on price action signals.
In my experience any indicators that lag quite a bit are not very useful.
A note of concern: Since you are using digital filters, I read that you do redo the coefficients every week. Be careful. Usually if you have to do that, it means that you are optimizing (over optimizing) and most of the time that spells trouble. It is very easy to get hypnotized with very nice smooth optimized charts and think you have something good going...(one big reason I don't like indicators with many degrees of freedom).
Last comment: You may want to trade your demos the way you would trade your live account money management wise. You've made very few trades but are up 50%. That means you are over leveraging and that gives you wrong impressions about your systems and perhaps makes you over confident when it comes to real money.
I've blown up before, so it's no shame or surprise. No need to be so defensive. I'm only commenting about your other system at C2 because those results are audited and real. And I was seeing if I can gain some insight on your trading style and trading pairs since your pattern trading has been quite successful. I fully didn't expect to see that huge drop in such short amount of time. Naturally, I thought maybe the market gapped and skipped right over your stops or the system simply lost its edge or the EA went offline when the market had a big correction. But I guess now we know that wasn't the issue, and it was just the common case of averaging down.
However, I'm quite surprised that you abandoned your strategy completely at C2 if your edge is still there, but only poor money management was the issue. I would think you go back to it, and eliminate the averaging down, unless averaging down is the key...so that would be a problem like the martingale strategies.
martingale
I've blown up before, so it's no shame or surprise. No need to be so defensive. I'm only commenting about your other system at C2 because those results are audited and real. And I was seeing if I can gain some insight on your trading style and trading pairs since your pattern trading has been quite successful. I fully didn't expect to see that huge drop in such short amount of time. Naturally, I thought maybe the market gapped and skipped right over your stops or the system simply lost its edge or the EA went offline when the market had a big correction. But I guess now we know that wasn't the issue, and it was just the common case of averaging down. However, I'm quite surprised that you abandoned your strategy completely at C2 if your edge is still there, but only poor money management was the issue. I would think you go back to it, and eliminate the averaging down, unless averaging down is the key...so that would be a problem like the martingale strategies.
jbfx,
You sound like the last boy scout...;)....I am not defensive,I am fed up...I post several demotrades most of them a few minutes after execution,explain the method by which I trigger the entries,one by one all the chart patterns,explain 80% about the method I use to filter the trades,digital filters,you can do 95% the same just by reading my posts at this Forum..and LEARN FROM THEM...I post an investor password,so,if you are not really convinced,you can check that the trade was done as and when posted,I achieve 47% return in one month,then post predictions for the next week...and KAZAAN..the Inquistion,and the "you can`t do it with your arm tied to your back" come back in full to show why it shouldn`t be possible..Man ,allow me a little room..would you?Can I have your permission to be "defensive"?I don`t care,but just think about it...or even better,do the same thing and then you will know what I am talking about.
You could know very well, just by looking at my trades at C2, that Martingale was not the issue,when you see Martingaling,on a 2 years old account,you see many examples of SYSTEMATICALLY averaging down before the final hit,and usually these accounts do not live so long
...this was not obviously the case,so,why are you mentioning this issue?
Please point to any of my 880+ posts here ..where DO I defend martingaling? NONE..I could point instead to a very infamous thread where everybody lost their marbles,and I was one of the very few people to point the risks and the potential pitfalls of a Martingaler ,suffering the derogatory comments of many who now are crying for not having listened,so,accuse me of most everything,but not of Martingaling,unless you can show proof.
The problem I had was just hubris,believing that instead of having a high probability system I had an almost perfect one...AND,INDEED..having 24 winning trades in a row can do this to your thinking...it did this to mine,and,you know, good cyclic models,when weekly optimized,do give you exceptional returns ..until they fail...BUT..having a price action filter,helps prevent most of the negative results of these kind of failures,and this is what I am trying to show in the non audited but freely accessible demo account whose results I am posting at the other thread,with an investors password for everybody to check...The results you deem so admirable,and I barely feel that are above mediocre ...Yes,I am not joking,do not let your limiting beliefs interfer with what is possible.
I haven`t abandoned C2,though I admit that this being the place of a very public defeat,they do not give me a hard-on anymore,understandable,I presume,for everybody with an iota of red blood in their blood stream,though I will retrade that acccount to post it above initial equity before end of July,but this is another story...the edge I have I am posting here,at this Forum,with an investors password,for everybody to LEARN...if they want...not everybody wants,most people have problems with their limiting beliefs,so,they can`t learn...they choose to focus elsewhere,and search for excuses about why what they are seeing done in front of their eyes is not possible or not real,I knew that by posting PREDICTIONS..I was going to get some adverse reactions,not of this kind though,and not from you,but,obviously I was wrong...well,as I said,the proof is in the pudding,pudding in the oven,and cooking almost finished,so,let`s judge it by its flavour.
If you think there is any difference between an audited demotrade at C2 and giving away an investor`s password for a demo account that is posting trades in a public forum with 10k+ views of the thread,please try both,and then,either show us the difference,or acknowledge it is exactly the same..some walking before talking is usually a good qualifier of opinions.
Thanks for your comments.
Regards
Simba
Hey Simba,
I am not criticizing at all. My hat goes off to you for standing up to your learning.
I think you are definitely going in the right direction when it comes to looking for indicators with as little lag as possible, as well as concentrating on price action signals.
In my experience any indicators that lag quite a bit are not very useful.
A note of concern: Since you are using digital filters, I read that you do redo the coefficients every week. Be careful. Usually if you have to do that, it means that you are optimizing (over optimizing) and most of the time that spells trouble. It is very easy to get hypnotized with very nice smooth optimized charts and think you have something good going...(one big reason I don't like indicators with many degrees of freedom).
Last comment: You may want to trade your demos the way you would trade your live account money management wise. You've made very few trades but are up 50%. That means you are over leveraging and that gives you wrong impressions about your systems and perhaps makes you over confident when it comes to real money.Jet,
Thanks for your note of concern...I am trading the demo with 5 to 15 lots per trade,I already explained why.
My real accounts,I trade according to monetary value of volatility and distance to stops(with different levels of risk,since I have 3 accounts and one is for Futures) plus the fact that I add 50% to that distance,since my stops are AT CLOSE...I don`t have wrong impressions about my systems,they are fantastic,the one that is not fantastic is myself as a trader,just the opposite,though I am improving on it.
Having made 47% on one month doesn`t necessarily mean I am overleveraging the demo,we will know if the system is overleveraged or not once we have enough data,which,frankly ,we don`t...
Regards
Simba
Simba,
I didn't imply that you used martingaling, just your averaging down is the same behavior as trying to recoup the loss by putting on another trade until you dig yourself out of the hole. Sorry if it came out that way.
And systems fail all the time. I just shut down my automated strategy after a year of live trading. It was just churning and had negative expectations, and making my broker rich. I took a loss, and closed all the trades. Even though it had high hit rate, I couldn't overcome the large loss trades. I now have to rely on other strategies.
Here's what my statement looked like:
Gross Profit: 14 381.35 Gross Loss: 16 399.05 Total Net Profit: -2 017.70
Profit Factor: 0.88 Expected Payoff: -0.45
Absolute Drawdown: 0.00 Maximal Drawdown: 13 487.39 (64.17%) Relative Drawdown: 64.17% (13 487.39)
Total Trades: 4455 Short Positions (won %): 2560 (89.53%) Long Positions (won %): 1895 (96.68%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 4124 (92.57%) Loss trades (% of total): 331 (7.43%)
Largest profit trade: 67.44 loss trade: -757.85
Average profit trade: 3.49 loss trade: -49.54
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 471 (1 736.88) consecutive losses ($): 114 (-13 487.39)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 2 662.19 (355) consecutive loss (count): -13 487.39 (114)
Average consecutive wins: 43 consecutive losses: 3
Ce la vie.
Clarification
Simba,
I didn't imply that you used martingaling, just your averaging down is the same behavior as trying to recoup the loss by putting on another trade until you dig yourself out of the hole. Sorry if it came out that way.
And systems fail all the time. I just shut down my automated strategy after a year of live trading. It was just churning and had negative expectations, and making my broker rich. I took a loss, and closed all the trades. Even though it had high hit rate, I couldn't overcome the large loss trades. I now have to rely on other strategies.
Here's what my statement looked like:
Gross Profit: 14 381.35 Gross Loss: 16 399.05 Total Net Profit: -2 017.70
Profit Factor: 0.88 Expected Payoff: -0.45
Absolute Drawdown: 0.00 Maximal Drawdown: 13 487.39 (64.17%) Relative Drawdown: 64.17% (13 487.39)
Total Trades: 4455 Short Positions (won %): 2560 (89.53%) Long Positions (won %): 1895 (96.68%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 4124 (92.57%) Loss trades (% of total): 331 (7.43%)
Largest profit trade: 67.44 loss trade: -757.85
Average profit trade: 3.49 loss trade: -49.54
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 471 (1 736.88) consecutive losses ($): 114 (-13 487.39)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 2 662.19 (355) consecutive loss (count): -13 487.39 (114)
Average consecutive wins: 43 consecutive losses: 3
Ce la vie.Ce la vie indeed
Thanks for taking your time to clarify the issue,I appreciate it.
Regards
Simba
Hello, Simba!
I want to say Thanks to you for introducing Hursts ideas to me. Last year I read all your posts about Simba-system and con man. I did not practice yours system, but I developed good indicator, based upon Hurst ideas. I want to share it with you, because I feel indebted to you and to this forum.
I am posting 8 indicators. They made not by professional, they looks ugle, but it works. You need put them in indicator folder, but on the chart need to open only hren1. So, by divergense beetwin dot line and solid line you can see, in what direction price will go. Thin indi only for GBPUSD.
If you have any question, you wellcome anytime.
Sorry, You need 11 indicators, not 8.I coud not fit all 11 indi in one post. Hier another 5.