Eur/usd - page 309
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EUR/USD forecast for the week of August 10, 2015
The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course the week but turned back around after the Nonfarm Payroll Numbers on Friday. With this, we did up racing back towards the 1.10 level which is essentially “fair value” in this market. After all, we been consolidating between the 1.08 level on the bottom, and the 1.12 level on the top for some time now. With that being the case, we simply do not see long-term trades in this market quite yet, and therefore will stick to short-term charts as scalpers run this particular pair.
EU Preview: Show Me the Results, Euro Zone GDP
The week ahead may show whether the euro zone economy is really picking up steam and suggest whether the currency bloc is about to turn a corner. The euro region has not experienced a truly lasting economic recovery since the 2008 financial crisis and struggled to avoid another recession toward the end of last year.
The fresh data due next week may provide a compelling argument that a mix of non-standard monetary policies launched by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, combined with fiscal policies and labor market reforms, really triggered improving economic environment. The ECB's €60 billion a month asset purchase program that started in March is projected to boost growth in the region. The stimulus uses newly created money to buy public and private sector debt.
“A weaker currency and a loose monetary policy stance will continue to provide support to economic recovery going forward,” an analytic team from BNP Paribas predicted.
While the preliminary GDP figures from Spain suggest that the country's economy grew by an impressive 1% in the second quarter, and it is 3.1% larger than it was a year ago, the next week will bring more results from across the region, including the three biggest economies of Germany, France and Spain, as well as from the whole currency bloc.
Here the picture may not be so rosy. Despite the benefits of cheap oil, record-low interest rates and a low euro, it appears that many European companies continue struggling with a slowdown in China and market volatility over the Greek crisis.
Last week, industrial production showed disappointing declines in the euro zone’s three biggest economies in June, with a surprisingly big drop in Germany. The big three - Germany, France and Italy - account for approximately 60% of euro zone GDP. The poor data are now casting doubt on GDP figures for the second quarter.
Several analytic teams cut their forecasts on Friday. BNP Paribas warns that there is now a risk for a "softer reading in light of the poor industrial showing" and economic experts at Capital Economics predict that GDP growth will slow in the second quarter, to 0.2% or 0.3% from 0.4% in the first quarter.
In addition, fresh inflation data from the euro bloc, Germany and France will bring another important insight into the state of the euroland economy.
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EUR/USD Forecast August 10-14
EUR/USD traded somewhat lower but never went too far. GDP releases are the main events for the upcoming week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Euro-zone data was more or less in line with expectations. Retail sales disappointed but German factory orders beat expectations. Greek negotiations are moving along quietly. Perhaps this is a good sign, but it’s hard to see how the parties will overcome the debt restructuring topic. In the US, data was OK, with NFP coming in slightly below expectations, triggering a mixed market reaction and keeping markets divided about the prospects of a rate hike in September.
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Important week ahead, packed with important events.
The most impotant only on Friday (PPI)
I think the fundamentals this week will not have much effect on the price.
The single currency recorded a growth of third day against the dollar on Friday, but failed to make progress for the week. The euro rose by 35 pips to a closing price of 1.0958. The daily final readings were reached respectively at 1.0977 and 1.0855. The price went above the average values, while the index of relative strength develops in positive territory, alluding to the preponderance of bulls in the short term. Key levels for determinining the long-term attitudes remain 1.1130 and 1.0810.
EUR/USD: Euro Trades Flat on Non-Event Calendar
The empty economic calendar on Monday leaves most of the majors at last week's closing level, including EUR/USD. Friday's US non-farm payrolls data for July only provided a short-lived boost and the pair consolidated quickly.
The euro edged 0.07% higher to $1.0969, almost unchanged from Friday's close of $1.0949.
On the European front there appears to be growing optimism over the Greek bailout deal, according to weekend reports. Detailed technical talks on a new bailout program for Greece between Athens and its creditors continued over the weekend and into the early hours on Monday in the hope that they could be concluded by Tuesday.
Growing optimism amongst EU officials would appear to suggest that Greece had made significant concessions with respect to new austerity measures which could be voted on later this week, as the country looks to make a payment to the European Central Bank of €3.2 billion by August 20.
In the US, the attention will shift to Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Dennis Lockhart, who will speak twice on Monday. Last week Lockhart felt that there was a fairly high bar to not acting on rates in September, and that there would need to be a "significant deterioration" in economic activity to cause the Fed not to act.
"Friday’s payrolls report is likely to reinforce his views on this particular subject," Michael Hewson from CMC Markets UK commented in his economic research note on Monday.
source
Euro little changed against dollar in subdued trade
The euro was almost unchanged against the broadly stronger dollar in quiet trade on Monday, as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates continued to underpin demand for the greenback.
EUR/USD was last at 1.0964, little changed for the day.
Investor expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the coming months were underline after the Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 215,000 jobs last month, slightly lower than forecasts for an increase of 223,000, but still consistent with strong employment growth.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.3%, in line with expectations.
Hourly earnings, a component of the jobs report that the Federal Reserve has said must rise, ticked up 0.2%, also matching forecasts after stalling in the previous month.
In the past three months the dollar has been boosted by mounting expectations that the Fed will raise short term interest rates in the coming months, possibly as early as September.
Investor sentiment remained cautious after weak economic reports out of China over the weekend fueled worries over a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
Data on Saturday showed that Chinese exports dropped 8.3% in July, their biggest fall in four months.
Another report on Sunday showed that Chinese producer prices fell to a six-year low in July.
In the euro zone, Greece moved closer to a deal on a third bailout with its international creditors following talks over the weekend.
Greece, which narrowly avoided an exit from the euro zone last month, needs to secure a €86 billion ahead of the August 20 deadline to repay €3.4 billion to the European Central Bank.
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on the Long term the EUR/USD still bearish due to the weakness of the Euro, but now the price is trading around a key point 1.1000 a break above it might be a chance for a position with target 1.1090