Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 21

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In the pre-opening, the European markets traded in slight rise. The weak activity and low trading volume, explained by the holiday season in the US (associated with Thanksgiving), should continue to mark today's session on European markets. The agenda of corporate results and the agenda of macroeconomic indicators haven't relevant events for today, so the focus should be on the continuing political uncertainty in Germany and on business news that may arise throughout the day.

 

On Monday, Britain’s Micro Focus suffered a heavy loss after Deutsche Bank cut its recommendation to buy to keep.

 

Oil companies have been among the best performers in the hope that OPEC members will be able to extend the cut-off on crude oil production.

 

Asian markets ended with some gains, with the potential positive effects of a hypothetical US tax reform approval overlapping with yet another North Korean ballistic test. Although the US tax reform has as its main objective to boost the domestic economy, the potential increase in household income should also benefit products imported from Asia. Yesterday some Japanese newspapers had anticipated a ballistic test by North Korea which, according to regime propaganda, could hit the United States.

 

Asian markets ended lower, penalized by weakness in the technology sector, which was plunged by the steep fall in Nasdaq. In Tokyo, the weakness of technological Stocks was more than offset by the appreciation of the banking sector. It also notes the rise in interest rates in South Korea (the first in 6 years) and the release of the PMI index in China. The PMI index for manufacturing industry in November reached 51.8 against the estimated 51.4. At the services level, PMI stood at 54.8 compared to 54.3 in October.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.02 08:46

S&P 500 - daily bullish with 2,657 as a target (based on the article)

Daily price is very far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing resistance level at 2,657 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "In 2016 the average forecast was 5% below where the S&P 500 ended the year.  It looks as though they are going to do even worse in 2017 as the average S&P 500 forecast from the start of the year was for it to close at 2359. In fact several were looking for the S&P 500 to close lower in 2017."
  • "Last summer Goldman Sachs was sticking with their year-end target at 2300 even though the S&P 500 was already trading above 2400.  In July some of the other Wall Street strategists started to raise their forecasts."
  • "In fact listening to their bullish calls during 2000-2002 would have resulted in a 50% loss. For 2018 the average a year-end target for the S&P 500 is 2800. The current high forecast is 2950 but expect this to change in early 2018."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

On the daily chart of gold we can see that the precious metal has been boxed between the 200 day EMA at the 1270 level and the 1300 level. If we see a rise of volatility close to a support or resistance zone, the commodity may be getting ready to take off.

 

The US Senate passed a string of fiscal measures aimed at increasing American incomes by a very small majority (51-49). Postponing the description of the main measures of this document to another time, the issues that its approval places are described. The first is the time it will take to reconcile with the proposal passed in the House of Representatives. The second is to try to anticipate (as much as possible) what the real effects will be on the real economy. The third concerns the impact it will have on the public deficit. If it is very significant, it may imply a generalized rise in yields, which will cause a profound change in the global stock market situation. The fourth, which depends a little on the others, is to know how much of the positive effects of this reform have been anticipated by the extraordinary rise of American markets in recent months.

 

Most European markets ended on a downward trajectory, with investors reacting to the global downturn in technology stocks. The London exchange was one of the exceptions to this negative behavior, since it recovered from the initial losses. In addition to the technological sector, whose trend was influenced by the performance of the North American peers, the banking and automobile sectors were also under pressure.

 

The ADP employment report showed that 190 000 jobs were created during November, a level above expectations but lower than in October. For oil, the price of West Texas Intermediate traded in New York fell, after the unexpected increase of oil reserves in the country.

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