Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for EUR/USD - page 7

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 08:51

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, March 26 - April 02 (based on the article)

EUR/USD had a mixed week. The last week of March features a key survey and fresh inflation figures. Is the ECB’s optimism justified? 


  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00.
  2. Monetary data: Monday, 8:00.
  3. German CPI: Thursday, the German states publish their estimates during the morning and the all-German number is made public at 12:00.
  4. German Import Prices: Thursday, 6:00.
  5. Spanish Flash CPI: Thursday, 7:00.
  6. German Retail Sales: Friday, 6:00.
  7. French CPI: Friday, 6:45.
  8. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 6:45.
  9. German Unemployment Change: Friday, 7:55.
  10. Flash inflation data: Friday, 9:00. In February, the consumer price index hit the “holy grail” of central banking at 2%, higher than expected. However, core CPI remained stuck at 0.9%. The Producer Price Index rose by 0.7% m/m in January.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117622
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:28

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD (based on the article)


EUR/USD"The data front for the Euro next week is rather busy; although we have to wait until Thursday before we see any ‘high impact’ announcements when German CPI is released. The following morning on Friday we get more German data with Unemployment figures and later in the session, Euro-Zone CPI data for the month of March is released. Continued beats will drive additional strength to the Euro on the basis of less dovishness out of the ECB; but the predominant factors in Euro price action at the moment appear to be political in nature, so unless these inflation and unemployment numbers come out significantly-above expectations, expect the prevailing winds of political forces to denominate how this data is inferred and priced-in by market participants."


Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.27 12:34

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2017-03-27 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

  • past data is 111.0
  • forecast data is 111.2
  • actual data is 112.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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From official report:

  • "Sentiment among German managers continues to improve this month. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 112.3 points in March from 111.1 (seasonally adjusted) points last month, reaching its highest level since July 2011. The upwards trend in assessments of the current business situation continues unabated. The business outlook for companies also improved again this month. The upswing in the German economy is gaining impetus."

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EUR/USD M5: 4range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
117622
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.30 16:18

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-03-30 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 1.9%
  • forecast data is 2.0%
  • actual data is 2.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 3.5 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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EUR/USD M5: 18 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



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