Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for EUR/USD - page 4

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Sergey Golubev
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what you think euro/usd will go up or down from now

Furqan Iqbal, 2017.02.13 10:17

hello friends give you analysis on eur/usd pair where is the next price of this will go up or down tell me thanks

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.13 13:11

EURUSD - bearish ranging within hihh/low of the last weekly bar waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started  (based on the article)

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal levels: the price is on breaking low of the last weekly bar at 1.0607 to below for the bearish trend to be resumed. Alternative, if the price breaks last weekly bar high at 1.0790 to above so the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.


  • "The Euro looks vulnerable to deeper losses after dropping to the lowest level in a month against the US Dollar, with prices seemingly poised to test below the 1.06 figure. The single currency reversed downward as expected after a test above the 1.08 threshold, completing a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern."
  • "A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1.0643 has exposed the 23.6% level at 1.0528 as the next downside barrier. A further push below that targets the 38.2% Fib at 1.0341. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1.0643 sees the next major upside threshold at 1.0828, the 38.2% Fib retracement."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.14 16:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD: U.S. Producer Price Index

2017-02-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report:

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in December and 0.5 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended January 2017."

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EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.15 13:21

Trading News Events: U.S. Consumer Price Index (adapted from dailyfx)


  • "A pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the dollar as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2017, but a marked slowdown in the core rate of inflation may drag on interest rate expectations as the central bank persistently warns ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.’"
  • "Recent comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggests the committee may pay increased attention to the developments in the core rate of inflation as the central bank head argues ‘inflation moved up over the past year, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices,’ and the FOMC may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at its next interest rate decision on March 15 as ‘considerable uncertainty attends the economic outlook.’ With that said, signs of softening price growth may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback, but the dollar may continue to gain ground throughout 2017 as Fed Fund Futures continue to highlight a greater than 60% probability for a June rate-hike."


Bearish USD Trade: CPI Report Instills Mixed Outlook for U.S. Price Growth

  • "Need green, five-minute candle following the CPI print to consider a long EUR/USD position."
  • "If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."

Bullish USD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Beat Market Expectations

  • "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD position."
  • "Implement same strategy as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse."

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It looks like the EURO is undervalued.

Cuong Truong, 2017.02.15 15:30

It looks like the EURO is undervalued. 
I've decided to buy more EUROs

I'm going to value the EUR/USD at 1.09 to 1.10

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EURUSD M5 price was broke support levels to below for the bearish breakdown. Price was bounced from 1.0521 support level to above for the good breakout with 1.0560 resistance level to be broken for the brealout to be continuing.

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. CPI news events:

 

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By the way, some bullish retracement pattern is forming by the price for MN, W1, D1, H4 and H2 timeframe so the secondary rally withoin the primary bearish market condition (H4 timeframe) is very likely situation to be started for example. And bullish reversal level for this H4 timeframe is 1.0646 so if the price breaks this level to above on close bar - the bullish reversal of H4 price movement will be started.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.16 14:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and Dollar Index: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2017-02-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

==========

From official report:

  • "The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a reading of 23.6 in January to 43.3 this month and has remained positive for seven consecutive months."

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EUR/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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USD/CAD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.19 07:16

EURO with valuation problem to be located near and below Yearly Central Pivot waiting for direction (based on the article)

  • "German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Saturday that there was a "valuation problem" with the euro and it was beyond the influence of her government as monetary policy is set for the entire euro area that has 19 member states."
  • "Responding to reporters' questions at the Munich Security Conference, Merkel said the European Central Bank sets monetary policy not for Germany but for countries from Portugal to Slovenia."
  • "Germany's trade surplus hit a record high of EUR 252.9 billion in 2016, clearly exceeding the previous peak of EUR 244.3 billion achieved in 2015. Exports expanded 1.2 percent and imports gained 0.6 percent."

W1 price is located to be below yearly Central Pivot at 1.0984 and above S1 Pivot at 1.0352:

  • the price is on bearish ranging within pivot level at 1.0984 and the first support level at 1.0352;
  • the price is breaking trend line to below for the 1.0352 support level as a nearest weekly bearish target;
  • if weekly price breaks Central Pivot at 1.0984 to above so reversal of the weekly price movement to the primary bullish market condition will be started;
  • if weekly price breaks S1 Pivot at 1.0352 to below so primary bearish trend will be resumed.


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.19 08:03

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, February 19 - February 26 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was looking for a new direction as politics continued moving markets. The upcoming week features PMIs and some business surveys.

 

  1. German PPI: Monday, 7:00. A rise of 0.3% is on the cards now.
  2. Bundesbank monthly report: Monday, 11:00.
  3. Consumer Confidence: Monday, 15:00.
  4. PMIs: Tuesday morning: 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the whole euro-area, showing the preliminary assessment for February.
  5. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 21:00. Germany’s No. 1 Think Tank surprised last month with a lower assessment of German business confidence in January.
  6. CPI (final): Wednesday, 10:00.
  7. LTRO: Wednesday, 10:30.
  8. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 14:00.
  9. German GDP (final): Thursday, 7:00. 
  10. GfK German Consumer Climate: Thursday, 7:00. A score of 10.3 is estimated now.

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