Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for EUR/USD - page 2

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.13 09:31

EUR/USD Rally (based on the article)



  • "The EUR/USD is trading back towards key points of daily resistance, after German GDP figures beat expectations. German GDP (YoY) was expected at 1.8%, but released at 1.9%. This move has now led to a two day rally for the pair spanning 231 pips." 
  • "Technically the EUR/USD is trading higher, but quickly running into resistance. As seen in the graph below, the pair is currently testing a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level found at 1.0669. This measurement has been found by taking the distance between the December 8th high at 1.0873 and the January 3rd low at 1.0340." 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.13 14:53

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD: U.S. Producer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales

2017-01-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

==========

From official report:

"The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.4  percent in November and were unchanged in October. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 1.6 percent in 2016 after falling 1.1 percent in 2015."

==========

2017-01-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

========== 

EUR/USD M5: 54 pips range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales news events


========== 

GBP/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales news events


========== 

NZD/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.14 11:48

Weekly Outlook: 2017, January 15 - January 22 (based on the article)


The dollar was under pressure in a turbulent week that saw President-Elect Trump’s press conference. He will enter the White House in the upcoming week. In addition, we have speeches from Mark Carney and Janet Yellen, Inflation data in the UK and the US, Employment data in the UK and Australia and rate decisions in Canada and the euro-zone.  

 

    1. Mark Carney speaks: Monday, 19:30. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in London. Market volatility is expected.
    2. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. The Bank of England expects inflation to continue to rise during 2017 to 2.7% and remain above the 2% target until 2020.
    3. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. 
    4. US Inflation data: Wednesday, 13:30. 
    5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. The Canadian dollar is losing strength and household imbalances have risen once again.
    6. Janet Yellen speaks: Wednesday, 21:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in San Francisco. Market volatility is expectd.
    7. Eurozone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45. The bank has prolonged the bond-buying program by nine months until the end of 2017, indicating the central bank does not intend to abandon its plans to boost the Eurozone’s economy.
    8. US Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30. Economists expect housing to continue growing despite rising mortgage rates after Trump’s election.
    9. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 13:30.
    10. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. 
    11. US Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 16:00. 

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.18 15:05

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and CAC 40: U.S. Consumer Price Index

    2017-01-18 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

    ==========

    From official report:

    "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment."

    ==========

    EUR/USD M5: 18 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events


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    GBP/USD M5: 24 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events


    ==========

    CAC 40 Index, M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.19 14:33

    EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rates and 19 pips range price movement

    2017-01-19 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

    • past data is 0.00%
    • forecast data is 0.00%
    • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

    [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

    ==========

    From official report:

    • At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

    ==========

    EUR/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event

     


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.20 06:43

    EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks and 39 pips range price movement

    2017-01-20 01:00 GMT | [EUR - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

    [EUR - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = The Speech titled "The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary Policy" at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, in San Francisco.

    ==========

    From dailymail article:

    • "Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday said it is "reasonable" for Congress to ask questions about Fed policy and why certain decisions deviate from recommendations from well-known monetary policy rules."
    • "But in response to a question from Stanford professor John Taylor, Yellen reiterated her opposition to a proposed law that would require the Fed to stick to Taylor's well-known policy rule and to submit to an audit should it deviate. Such a law, she said, opens the Fed to short-term political pressures."

    ==========

    EUR/USD M5: 39 pips range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.21 10:36

    Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, January 22 - January 29 (based on the article)

    EUR/USD enjoyed the dollar’s weakness but traded with relative caution after Draghi’s press conference. The upcoming week features a mix of PMIs, inflation, and GDP numbers. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

     

    1. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 11:00. The President of the ECB has another chance to impact the euro in a speech in Torino, Italy, his home country.
    2. Consumer Confidence: Monday, 15:00.
    3. Flash PMIs: Tuesday morning: 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the whole euro-zone.
    4. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 9:00. 
    5. Spanish Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 8:00. 
    6. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 7:00. 
    7. German CPI: Thursday, throughout the morning from the states, with the final figure due at 13:00 GMT.
    8. French GDP: Friday, 6:30. 
    9. Spanish GDP: Friday, 7:00.
    10. French CPI: Friday, 7:45. 
    11. Monetary data: Friday, 9:00.

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.24 11:24

    EUR/USD with New 2017 Highs (based on the article)

    H4 price is on testing 1.0771 resistance level to above for the intra-day bullish trend to be continuing.

    The price is located above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:

    • 1.0771 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed, and
    • 1.0612 support level for the correction to be started.


    • "The EUR/USD has started Mondays trading pushing to new 2017 highs at 1.0754. With today’s rally, the EUR/USD has now risen as much as 414 pips from the current 2017 low at 1.0340. Technically the pair remains bullish in the short term, as the EUR/USD remains trading above its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average). This line is currently acting as short-term support for the pair and found at 1.0647."
    • "On a longer-term basis, the EUR/USD is still arguably in a downtrend as the pair trades below its 200-day MVA (Simple Moving Average). While the 200-day average at 1.1022 remains a critical point of resistance, traders will next look for the EUR/USD to clear the December 8 high at 1.0873. Failure to trade beyond this point would help classify this short-term bull run as a retracement in an otherwise downtrend."


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.24 20:12

    EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Home Resales and 14 pips range price movement

    2017-01-24 15:00 GMT | [USD - Existing Home Sales]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - Existing Home Sales] = Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction.

    ==========

    From official report:


    ==========

    EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by U.S. Home Resales news event



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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.25 19:30

    EUR/USD Intra-Day - 'given the current inflation data, we will probably have to live with the low interest rate until further notice' (based on the article)

    H4 price is above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

    • 1.0774 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
    • 1.0710 support level located on the border of the secondary correction to be started.

    Trend Strength indicator is forecasting the trend as the secondary correction, and descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the correction as well. But Chinkou Span line together with Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the future trend as the ranging within the primary bullish market condition waiting for direction of the strong trend to be started.


    • "The European Central Bank must give up its expansionary stance as soon as euro area inflation moves closer to its 2 percent target as the favorable effects of the stimulus measures are fading fast, but as of now low interest rates are set to remain for some time more, Bundesbank Executive Board member Andreas Dombret said Wednesday."
    • "There is, therefore, no question that monetary policy must be normalized as soon as it become clear that the inflation rate will reach the stability range of just below 2 percent on a sustainable basis."
    • "The desired effects of expansive monetary policy are diminishing with increasing pace, while unwanted side effects are rising...in particular the risk that the liquidity on the markets leads to the development of financial market bubbles."