If actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
New Zealand Posts Biggest July Trade Deficit In 5 Years :
New Zealand recorded a larger-than-expected trade deficit in July,
which was also the widest for the month since 2008, amid higher imports
and a fall in crude and dairy exports, the latest figures from
Statistics New Zealand showed Monday.
The trade balance moved to a
deficit of NZ$774 million in July from a surplus of NZ$374 million in
June. Economists had forecast a smaller deficit of NZ$16 million. In
July 2012, the balance was in a surplus of NZ$98 million.
value of imports increased to NZ$4.6 billion in July from NZ$3.6 billion
in June. This was higher than the expected value of NZ$3.9 billion.
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
German Business Morale At 16-Month High :
Confidence among German businesses continued to improve, reaching a
16-month high in August, as companies are more satisfied with their
current situation amid the economy moving up a gear.
confidence index improved more-than-expected to 107.5 in August, the
highest since April 2012, from 106.2 in July, results of an Ifo
Institute survey, based on 7,000 responses, showed Tuesday. Economists
had forecast the index to rise to 107 in August.
FOCUS: Gold Rises On Safe-Haven Buys Over Syria, Technical Charts, Fed QE Debate :
Gold prices are stronger in early North American dealings on
Tuesday, supported by several factors: safe-haven buying on nervousness
about possible U.S. military action against Syria, bullish
technical-chart patterns and thoughts that the Federal Reserve might
abstain from curbing its bond purchases.
December Comex gold was up $24.30, or 1.7%, to $1,417.40 an
ounce as of 9:39 a.m. EDT. The contract peaked at $1,423, its strongest
level in two months.
New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil was also strong, with
October crude up $2.64 a barrel to $108.56. Crude oil is especially
sensitive to tensions flaring in the Middle East. Although Syria is not
a major oil producer, concerns are that violence from the two-year
civil war could spill over to other countries and disrupt oil supplies.
Several analysts are citing a flare-up in tensions in Syria as lifting gold prices.
“Geopolitical concerns have ratcheted up over the last 48
hours,” said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale.
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CHF in our case)
UBS consumption indicator: virtually no change in consumer sentiment :
The UBS consumption indicator
remained virtually unchanged in July. An increase in new car
registrations was balanced by gloomier consumer sentiment and a weaker
Zurich/Basel, 28 August 2013 – The UBS
consumption indicator remained virtually unchanged in July at 1.41 index
points compared with the previous month (revised down from 1.44 to
1.41), continuing a trend that has been ongoing since April.
Swiss consumers registered significantly more new cars in July than
in the previous month; new car registrations rose by 14.4% after figures
are seasonally adjusted. Compared with the same month last year, the
number of new car registrations was also up sharply, increasing by 5.3%
to 26,333 new car registrations. Following a weak first six months which
saw a considerable decline of 11.8%, the second half of 2013 began
somewhat more positively for the automotive sector.
NZD/USD slides lower in risk-off trade :
The New Zealand dollar was lower against its U.S. counterpart on
Wednesday, as market sentiment remained under pressure amid ongoing
tension in Syria and the possibility of a U.S. military intervention in
the region. NZD/USD hit 0.7749 during late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7765, shedding 0.42%. The pair was likely to find support at 0.7700, the low of July 8 and resistance at 0.7874, the high of August 26.
Market sentiment was hit by growing expectations for U.S. military
strikes against Syria’s government. U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden said
Tuesday there is "no doubt" that the Syrian government used chemical
weapons against civilians and added that it must be held accountable. The
greenback also found support as concerns over the timing of a reduction
in Federal Reserve stimulus eased after data on Tuesday showed that
U.S. consumer confidence rose more than expected in August, hitting the
highest level since January 2008.The Conference Board said its
index of consumer confidence rose to 81.5 in August from an upwardly
revised 81.0 in July. Analysts had expected the index to tick down to
79.0. The kiwi was higher against the Australian dollar with AUD/NZD sliding 0.39%, to hit 1.1480.
Trading German Unemployment and Implications for EURUSD :
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish EUR Trade: German Unemployment contracts 5K or greater
Potential Price Targets For The Release
U.S. Economy Grew Faster Than Initially Estimated In Q2 :
Reflecting revisions to imports and exports, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing that the U.S. economy grew by more than previously estimated in the second quarter.
report said GDP increased by 2.5 percent in the second quarter,
reflecting an upward revision from the advance estimate of 1.7 percent
Economists had been anticipating a somewhat more modest upward revision to the pace of GDP growth to about 2.2 percent.
Commerce Department said the upward revision the pace of GDP growth
primarily reflected an upward revision to exports and a downward
revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.
report said exports rose by 8.6 percent compared to the previously
reported 5.4 percent growth, while imports increased by 7.0 percent
versus the initially estimated 9.5 percent jump.
Gold Ends Moderately Lower On Profit Taking, Stronger U.S. Dollar Index :
Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately lower but up from
the daily low Thursday, on some profit taking and a technical
correction after recent gains that saw the market hit a 3.5-month high
Wednesday. The key “outside markets” were also in a bearish daily
posture for the precious metals Thursday, as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher and crude oil prices were weaker. December Comex gold was
last down $8.00 at $1,410.80 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down
$6.80 at $1411.50. September Comex silver last traded down $0.411 at
$23.98 an ounce.
The market place was a bit less risk-averse
Thursday. Notions of an imminent U.S. military attack on Syria receded
as President Obama said Wednesday he has not decided on a response to
the Syrian regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons against civilians.
Also, U.S. allies and other world nations are not at all in agreement
on what to do on the matter.
The U.S. dollar index surged following a
better-than-expected second-quarter U.S. GDP report. Shortly after that
report the gold market hit its daily low as the greenback rallied.