2013-07-24 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
China Manufacturing Contraction Deepens As New Orders Slide :
China's factory activity fell to the weakest level in eleven months
in July amid a continued slide in new orders and faster destocking,
preliminary results of a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC revealed
The purchasing managers' index, an indicator of the
country's factory sector performance, fell to 47.7 in July from 48.2 in
June. An index reading below 50 suggests deterioration in activity.
orders received by manufacturers fell at a faster pace in July, while
the pace of decline in export orders eased, the survey found. The
manufacturing output index fell to a nine-month low of 48.2 in July from
48.6 in June.
Employment at manufacturers decreased at faster rate in July, the survey revealed.
PMI reading suggested "a continuous slowdown in manufacturing sectors
thanks to weaker new orders and faster destocking," said Hongbin Qu,
Chief China Economist at HSBC. "This adds more pressure on the labour
market," he said.
"As Beijing has recently stressed to secure the
minimum level of growth required to ensure stable employment, the flash
PMI reinforces the need to introduce additional fine-tuning measures to
stabilise growth," Hongbin noted.
State media on Tuesday quoted Chinese Premier Li Keqiang as saying that the economy
needs at least 7.5 percent growth to maintain labor market stability.
In the remarks made at a recent State Council meeting, he said that 7
percent economic growth is the government's bottom line of tolerance.
Just about this news events :
2013-07-24 07:28 GMT (or 09:28 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Markit Manufacturing PMI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
2013-07-24 07:28 GMT (or 09:28 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Markit Service PMI]
German Private Sector Activity At 5-Month High :
German private sector business
activity rose at the fastest pace in five months in July, preliminary
results of a survey by Markit Economics showed Wednesday.
composite output index, that measures performance of both manufacturing
and services, rose to a five-month high of 52.8 in July from 50.4 in
June. Readings above 50 indicates expansion in activity.
expansion was underpinned by a return to new business expansion in July,
ending a four-month period of contraction, Markit said in the report.
This improvement was driven by rising levels of domestic demand as new
export volumes dropped for the fifth consecutive month.
purchasing managers' index, a gauge of factory activity, rose to 50.3 in
July from 48.6 in June. This was also the highest reading in five
months and higher than economists' forecast of 49.2.
The manufacturing output index rose to a 17-month high of 53.4 in July from 50.5 in June.
The services activity index advanced to 52.5 in July from 50.4 in June. This was above expectations of 50.7.
the manufacturing and service sectors posted only moderate increases in
new business volumes during the latest survey period.
levels in private sector firms increased in July following two months of
moderate declines. The employment growth was driven by the service
sector, as manufacturing workforce levels remained broadly unchanged
since the previous month.
Watch The Banned HFT Spoofing Algo In Action :
Lately, the parasitic, price manipulative "Office Space"-inspired HFT practice known as "spoofing" has been consistently in the news: a week ago,
it was the third largest futures broker, Newedge, who made headlines
following a "record" FINRA handslap, a/k/a fine, lobbed at the brokerage
for allowing spoofing to take place for four years between 2008 and
2011. Then yesterday,
a Red Bank, NJ-based HFT shop called Panther Energy Trading, and its
sole owner Michael Coscia were fined $4.5 million and got a 1 year ban
from the industry for engaging in precisely the same activity. "Panther,
based in Red Bank, New Jersey, and Coscia used a computer algorithm
that placed and quickly canceled bids and offers in futures contracts
for commodities including oil, metals, interest rates and foreign
currencies. Panther and Coscia engaged in spoofing from August 8, 2011,
to October 18, 2011, related to 18 futures contracts. The firm accumulated $1.4 million in profits by using the algorithm.
Panther’s automated trading system entered 400,000 orders on CME’s
electronic platform that were canceled 98 percent of the time and never
intended to be completed."
While none of this is fundamentally new to any of our readers, we are happy to report that in conjunction with Nanex, we can now present documentary evidence of the Panther algo in action.
But first, some more on this particular transgression from Bloomberg :
“By placing the large buy orders, Coscia and Panther sought to give
the market the impression that there was significant buying interest,
which suggested that prices would soon rise, raising the likelihood that
other market participants would buy from the small order Coscia and
Panther were then offering to sell,” the agency said its statement.
Panther and Coscia must pay $2.8 million in fines and disgorgement of
profits to the CFTC, $903,000 to the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority
and $800,000 in fines to CME Group (CME) Inc., owner of the world’s
largest derivatives market. The CFTC also banned Panther and Coscia from
trading for a year.
Bart Chilton, always happy to make a media appearance and take some time
away from his busy poetry-book writing schedule, chimed in:
Bart Chilton, one of three Democrats among the CFTC’s four
commissioners, said in a statement that the trading ban should have been
longer than one year. The firm’s conduct was an “egregious violation”
of commodities law, he said, “and warrants the imposition of a much more
significant trading ban to protect markets and consumers, and to act as
a sufficient deterrent to other would-be wrongdoers.”
In other news, the HFT industry is shaking in its boots knowing the full
wrath of the regulators' wristslapping power and fury is about to be
unleashed, if only on the no name, one-man shop operations. The same regulators who used another Red Bank, NJ-based HFT firm, Tradeworx, to "conclude" that high frequency trading was not at fault in the flash crash.
The Panther Energy Trading case was the first to use Dodd-Frank
regulations barring disruptive trading practices, including spoofing of
orders by bidding with an intent to cancel before a trade is conducted,
the CFTC said. The 2010 law overhauled market oversight after largely
unregulated trades helped fuel the 2008 credit crisis.
“I would expect more CFTC investigations and actions related to
‘disruptive trading practices,’ which will further add to the regulatory
scrutiny that so-called ‘high-frequency traders’ currently face,”
Stephen Humenik, a lawyer at Covington & Burling LLP, said in an
We wouldn't, although even if the CFTC did take
its role as a regulator (headed by former Goldmanite Gary Gensler)
seriously, the opportunity cost of spoofing, namely the occasional fine,
would still be perfectly acceptable in an industry where a one-man shop with a few computers can make $1.4 million in 2 months. Which also means that many more Panther Energies will emerge in the coming weeks and months.
Until then, here is Nanex,
explaining to all those who suddenly turned green with envy that one
firm can make almost $10 million profit per year from high frequency
trading, how it's done.
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
U.S. New Home Sales Jump To Five-Year High In June :
New home sales in the U.S. rose by much more than anticipated in the
month of June, according to a report released by the Commerce
Department on Wednesday, although the report also showed downward
revisions to the data for the past few months.
The report said new
home sales surged up by 8.3 percent to an annual rate of 497,000 in
June from the revised May rate of 459,000.
expected new home sales to climb to an annual rate of 481,000 from the
476,000 originally reported for the previous month.
In addition to
the downward revision to new home sales in May, the annual rate of new
home sales in April was downwardly revised to 453,000 from 466,000.
home sales are volatile and monthly changes are hardly ever
statistically significant," said Teunis Brosens, Senior Economist at ING
Bank. "Still, today's release confirms that new home sales remain on an
With the continued upward trend, new home sales in
June were at their highest annual since May of 2008. Sales were also up
by 38.1 percent compared to the same month a year ago.
the report said the median sales price of new houses was $249,700 in
June, down 5 percent from $262,800 in May. The median price was still up
7.4 percent year-over-year.
The Commerce Department also said there were 161,000 houses for sale at the end of June compared to 159,000 at the end of May.
number of houses for sale represents 3.9 months of supply at the
current sales rate, down from 4.2 months due to the faster rate of
The report showed a notable increase in new home sales in the Northeast, where sales surged up by 18.5 percent in June.
home sales in the West and the South also jumped by 13.8 percent and
10.9 percent, respectively, while sales in the Midwest slumped by 11.8
On Monday, the National Association of Realtors released a
separate report showing an unexpected decrease in existing home sales
NAR said existing home sales dipped 1.2 percent to an
annual rate of 5.08 million in June from a downwardly revised 5.14
million in May.
The drop surprised economists, who had expected
existing home sales to climb to 5.27 million from the 5.18 million
originally reported for the previous month.
Some more about NZD news event :
2013-07-24 21:00 GMT (or 23:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
RBNZ's Wheeler Signals Policy Tightening In 2014 :
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler on Thursday
indicated that the bank may consider tightening policy in 2014 if the
overheated housing market stokes price pressures.
At the same time, he noted that the bank will keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged through the end of this year.
extent of the monetary policy response will depend largely on the
degree to which the growing momentum in the housing market and
construction sector spills over into inflation pressures," Wheeler said
while announcing the bank's decision to hold the OCR unchanged at 2.5
"Although removal of monetary stimulus will likely be
needed in the future, we expect to keep the OCR unchanged through the
end of the year," Wheeler said.
He noted that the CPI inflation
has been very low over the past year, reflecting the high New Zealand
dollar and strong international and domestic competition. However, the
bank expects inflation to trend upwards towards the mid-point of the 1-3
percent target band as growth accelerates over the coming year.
said the Reserve Bank does not want to see financial or price stability
compromised by housing demand getting too far ahead of the supply
In May, Wheeler signed a memorandum of understanding
with Finance Minister Bill English, which awarded the central bank will
more powers to curb excessive growth in credit and asset prices in the
country through the use of four macro-prudential tools.
tools included adjustments to the core funding ratio, a countercyclical
capital buffer, adjustments to sectoral capital requirements and
quantitative restrictions on the share of high loan-to-value ratio (LVR)
loans to the residential property sector.
In addition to this,
the central bank is expected to announce measures to limit low-deposit
mortgage lending to cool the housing market.
Grant Spencer said on June 27 that limited house supply was at the heart
of the problem and strong demand supported by easy credit was
underpinning the rapid escalation of house prices.
However, he said housing cannot yet be described as a threat to overall inflation, given some slack still in the economy.
Nonetheless, Spencer opined that higher interest rates are not the
right policy response at this time and that the bank is seriously
considering the use of macro-prudential policy tools.
2013-07-25 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
U.K. Q2 GDP Growth Picks Up :
The U.K. economy
expanded at a faster pace as expected in the second quarter on a
widespread support from production, construction and services.
increase in gross domestic product doubled to 0.6 percent from 0.3
percent in the first quarter, preliminary estimate published by the
Office for National Statistics showed Thursday. The growth rate matched
As expected, GDP was 1.4 percent higher in the second quarter compared with a year ago.
largest contribution to GDP growth came from services, which expanded
0.6 percent sequentially. Further, construction output grew 0.9 percent,
recovering from a 1.8 percent fall in the first quarter, when output
was at its lowest level since the start of 2001.
percentage points to GDP, overall production advanced 0.6 percent,
within which manufacturing grew 0.4 percent, it said.
Sorry - I did not trade USD Durable Goods Orders and USD Initial Jobless Claims which were at 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time), I missed those events. But there are some press releases about.
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise More Than Expected In June :
With orders for transportation equipment showing a substantial
increase, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing
that new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods rose by much more
than expected in the month of June.
The report said durable goods
orders surged up by 4.2 percent in June following an upwardly revised
5.2 percent jump in May. Economists had expected orders to rise by 1.5
percent compared to the 3.7 percent increase that had been reported for
the previous month.
Excluding the 12.8 percent jump in orders for
transportation equipment, durable goods orders were unchanged in June
compared to a 1.0 percent increase in May.
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Slightly Higher Than Expected :
First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits saw a modest
increase in the week ended July 20th, according to a report released by
the Labor Department on Thursday, with claims coming in slightly above
The report said initial jobless claims rose
to 343,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure
of 336,000. Economists had been expecting jobless claims to climb to
341,000 from the 334,000 originally reported for the previous week.