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2013-09-18 22:45 GMT (or 00:45 MQ MT5 time| [NZD - GDP]
actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
==========
New Zealand Q2 GDP Gains 0.2% On Quarter
New Zealand's gross domestic product collected 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday.
That was in line with expectations, but down from the upwardly revised 0.4 percent growth in the first quarter (originally called 0.3 percent).
The major drought that occurred in the first half of the year was blamed for the slowing growth, the bureau said.
"The drought early this year influenced falls in agriculture and manufacturing this quarter, but this was balanced by strong growth in the service industries," acting national accounts manager Steffi Schuster said.
NZD/USD rises after GDP data
The New Zealand dollar traded higher against its U.S. rival during Thursday Asian session after a stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP report.
In Asian trading Thursday, NZD/USD rose 0.42% to 0.8406. The pair was likely to find support at 0.8318, the high of May 13 and resistance around 0.8425.
The kiwi climbed against the greenback after Statistics New Zealand said the country’s second-quarter GDP rose 2.5%, beating the consensus estimate of 2.3%. While agriculture output fell 10%, construction climbed 15%, led by gains in housing and infrastructure projects.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has previously hinted it will raise interest rates early next year if the country’s housing market gets too hot. Statistics New Zealand said civil engineering spending climbed to its highest levels since 1992.
Exports, which make up about 30 percent of the economy, declined 5.9 percent as overseas shipments of meat and dairy products dropped. Imports gained, Bloomberg reported.
"The cumulative effect of the drought has been significant," Statistics New Zealand said in a report. "Because of the strong increase in slaughter numbers, especially for dairy cows, it may take longer to recover from than previous droughts."
The GDP report came a day after data showed that New Zealand's trade deficit expanded less than expected in the second quarter, falling to NZD1.25 billion from a deficit of NZD0.66 billion in the the three months to March.
The kiwi was also supported by news that the Federal Reserve will not taper its quantitative easing program, news that provided a lift to riskier assets such global equities.
Elsewhere, NZD/JPY climbed 0.71% to 82.58 while AUD/NZD slid 0.54% to 1.1317.
Trading Supply & Demand
What is a support?
A support level is a price level located below the current value of price, where there were previously more buyers than sellers (demand was previously more important than supply), and which sent the price upwards after preventing it from falling any lower. It is a level that the big players consider a good price to buy. A support level, as stated earlier, is represented by a horizontal line, which makes it simple enough for us to trade as there is nothing simpler than a horizontal line.
Investopedia explains "Support" : If the price of a stock falls towards a support level it is a test for the stock: the support will either be reconfirmed or wiped out. It will be reconfirmed if a lot of buyers move into the stock, causing it to rise and move away from the support level. It will be wiped out if buyers will not enter the stock and the stock falls below the support.
What is a resistance?
A resistance level is a price level located above the current value of price, where there were previously more sellers than buyers (supply was more important than demand), and which sent the price downwards after preventing it from raising higher. It is a level that institutions consider a good price to sell. A resistance level is also represented by a horizontal line.
GOLDMAN: The Stage Is Set For A Gold Rally
Goldman Sachs precious metals analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie are out with an update on gold prices following the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to refrain from announcing a tapering of quantitative easing yesterday, which sent gold soaring.
Courvalin and Currie are bearish on the metal, but say the rally could have further to run this year:
Near-term upside on delayed taper but still bearish into 2014
The FOMC unexpectedly decided not to taper the rate of its asset purchases, preferring to wait for further confirmation of improvement in the US economic outlook. This announcement, as well as Bernanke’s press conference, was more dovish than most had expected, pushing gold prices to $1,365/toz. The decision, combined with the upcoming debt ceiling debate, leaves risks to gold prices as skewed to the upside in the near- term, in our view.
However, with gold prices already back near their pre-June FOMC level, COMEX net speculative positioning already back at its April level as well as growing pressures on EM gold demand, we believe that this upside will ultimately prove limited (see Neutral gold prices near- term but still expecting new lows in 2014, September 17, 2013). We believe this is well illustrated by today’s more muted rally in gold prices when compared to the significant rally in 10-year TIPS yields, helping close the significant valuation gap that had occurred between both assets over the past month.
As a result, we re-iterate our neutral stance on gold prices and continue to expect that gold prices will resume their decline heading into 2014 when we expect economic data to solidly confirm a reacceleration in US growth and warrant a less accommodative monetary policy stance.
Gold is up 4.6% today in the wake of the Fed's decision, trading at $1367 an ounce.
2013-09-23 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time| [CNY - HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI]
actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
==========
China's Manufacturing Growth At 6-Month HighAn indicator of China's factory sector performance rose to its highest level in six months in September as new export orders rebounded, preliminary results of a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC revealed Monday.
The headline purchasing managers' index rose to a six-month high of 51.2 in September from 50.1 in August. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector.
The survey adds further evidence to China's ongoing growth rebound, HSBC chief economist Hongbin Qu said. "The firmer footing was supported by simultaneous improvements of external and domestic demand conditions," the economist said.
Stronger USD Recovery on Tap amid Upward Revision to 2Q GDP
Trading the News: Final U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Another upward revision in the 2Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may spur a more meaningful recovery in the dollar as it dampens the Fed’s scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, the limited reaction to the U.S. data prints from earlier this week certainly suggests market participants are waiting on a larger fundamental catalyst to move on, and a positive development may foster a bullish setup for the reserve currency amid the ongoing discussion at the Fed to taper the asset-purchase program.
Bullish USD Trade: 2Q GDP Expands 2.6% or Greater
Bearish USD Trade: Growth Rate Misses Market Forecast
actual < forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Show Unexpected Drop
First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased in the week ended September 21st, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday.
The report said initial jobless claims fell to 305,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 310,000.
The modest decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected jobless claims to climb to 325,000 from the 309,000 originally reported for the previous week.
7 Strategies for Online Stock Trading
There are many different ways you can trade stocks online with an online broker. Investment strategies come in all different shapes and forms and can integrate both technical and fundamental analysis together, while some strategies just involve one or the other.
Stock Trading Strategies are in no particular order:
- Day Trading
- Momentum Trading
- Swing Trading
- CANSLIM Trading
- Buy and Hold
- Penny Stocks
- Biotechs
Day TradingDay trading has a heavy focus on technical analysis and reacting quickly to changes in a given day of the stock market. To day trade successfully there are several steps you need to take and repeat. The main concept behind day trading is to buy a stock than sell it within the same day. Some day trades may last only a few minutes, some a few hours, and regardless of duration one thing is for sure, you better know what you are doing.
Momentum TradingA momentum trader likes to buy or short stocks on any sort of recent momentum almost always put into motion by institutional investing. This type of trading style can combine both technical and fundamental anaylsis or simply utilize one. When it comes to momentum trading, Apple Computers (AAPL) recent upswing over the last several months offers a perfect example. All the hype over the iPhone release put Apple stock on a big upswing that lasted months. The momentum behind this move was almost all news related, and a momentum trader would have jumped onboard this train right when it began moving. The big challenge momentum traders face is to know when to sell.
Swing TradingSwing trading is a more short term strategy with a focus on technical analysis. Swing traders analyze stock charts and look for patterns when stocks in the past made big upswings or downswings. They then buy and sell stock chart in accordance with the next predicted price swing and make money off the move. A swing trade can last as long as a few days or a few weeks to a month or more. A firm understanding of technical analysis is required to become successful at this strategy.
CANSLIM TradingCANSLIM Trading is probably the most well known investment strategy out there. Created by William O'Neil of investors.com, CANSLIM Trading combined both funamdental and technical analysis. The strategy enties buying well performing companies with solid fundamentals on certain technical breakouts. Some breakouts include the "cup and handle", or the "W formation". Chris Perruna wrote a guest article to breakdown the CANSLIM trading letters and offered some tips on how he uses it as an investment strategy.
Buy and HoldIt doesn't get much more basic than buying and holding. This strategy more often than not implies fundamental analysis or no analysis at all, and simply means what it is. Buying and holding is a long term strategy used by investors of all experience levels to buy a stock, hold onto it for a year or more, than sell it at a later date for hopefully a profit. Technicals don't come into play here and really you are banking on the overall market performing well over a longer period of time. The one main advantage of holding a stock for a longer period of time, more specifically over a year, is to take advantage of the long term capital gains tax.
Penny StocksPenny stocks are stocks that trade under $10 a share, and are more often than not a very risky form of trading. The reason these stocks are so risky is because they are so volatile and easily manipulated price wise. Simple math will tell us that a stock trading at $.50 a share will go down or up 2% for every penny it moves. When trading penny stocks fundamental analysis is a key component of trading because traders like to bank of news that can move the stock heavily in one direction. Technical analysis is also involved for those who like to use penny stocks to day trade. Buying and selling is also a problem because you need more shares to make up a sizable position in your portfolio.
BiotechsTrading strictly biotechs can make or break a good trader. This strategy involves taking a large position in a biotech stock that has a drug or drugs in its pipeline awaiting FDA approval, and making money when the drug gets approved or passes one of its testing phases. Drugs go through a series of testing in three phases to determine their effects and safety. All of these results can greatly move a biotech stock price one way or another. Small biotech companies can trade for pennies a share or a few dollars a share and can be greatly affected by FDA results.
New and experienced investors alike should have a set strategy for portfolio allocation as far as the number of total holdings. The key to determining how many stocks should be held at once lies in knowing how much money is in the portfolio. This guide will breakdown the best rules for portfolio allocation.
Portfolio Holdings Breakdown
Based on the total portfolio size total number holdings should follow this general diagram:
- Less than $4,000 = 1 stock / position
- $4,000 - $10,000 = 1 - 3 stocks / positions
- $10,000 - $20,000 = 1 - 5 stocks / positions
- $20,000 - $500,000 = up to 6 or 7 stocks / positions
- Great than $500,000 = 10 - 15 stocks / positions depending
This model follows the philosophy of William O'Neil and CANSLIM investing. CANSLIM investing is the most widely known investment strategy and there are great investment books that breakdown its key concepts.Gold futures gain ground on U.S. budget worries
Gold futures gained ground during European early afternoon trading hours on Friday, as mounting concerns over the handling of U.S. budget troubles coupled with uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's stimulus program supported safe haven demand.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,334.70 a troy ounce during European afternoon hours, up 1.19%.
The December contract ended 0.91% lower on Thursday to settle at USD1,324.10 a troy ounce.
Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,306.20 a troy ounce, the low from September 24 and resistance at USD1,366.50, the high from September 20.
Gold prices found support as U.S. budget concerns persisted after Republican leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives refused on Thursday to give in to President Barack Obama's demand for straightforward bills to run the government beyond September 30 and to increase borrowing authority to avoid a default.
Congress must reach an agreement on the budged debate before October 1 to prevent a government shutdown that could involve federal employees facing unpaid temporary leave and a delay in the payment of military personnel.