We are going to have NFP tomorrow. What is NFP? well ...
2013-08-02 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-farm Payrolls]
Something Interesting in Financial Video June 2013
newdigital, 2013.06.12 13:47
NFP is Non-farm Payrolls. Personally I traded nfp for few years by EA (for Metatrader 4) and that is why I am uploading this video to this thread.
Yes, nfp trading may be profitable ... but as we can see on the charts on the previous posts so it is very difficult trade nfp nes events. Many traders are not trading during nfp, the other traders are not trading on Friday. But there are some traders (special guys) who are trading nfp only.
US data announcements trigger volatile trading :
The US dollar is the main focus for
forex traders this week with several crucial economic data releases
scheduled. On Friday, the US unemployment rate will be revealed and it
is predicted that the rate will drop from 7.6% to 7.5%. While this is
heading in the right direction, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is
unlikely to trim the stimulus until he sees unemployment fall below 7%.
The most significant measure of the health of the US economy, however,
is the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will also be released on the
angevoyageur, 2013.06.04 14:08
This link provided to me by RaptorUK, give me the idea that it would be interesting to have a place here on the site to share such links. So I opened a new topic, it will be moderated to follow the rules as usual, but also about the content.
S&P 500 crosses 1,700 points for the first time
Stocks rose Thursday morning after an encouraging employment report,
sending the Standard & Poor's 500 index above 1,700 points for the
The S&P 500, which investors follow
closely as a gauge for the rest of the market, was up 18 points in early
trading, or 1.1 percent, at 1,704.
The Dow Jones
industrial average rose 144 points, or 0.9 percent, to 15,644. The Dow
is also at a record high. The Nasdaq composite index rose 37 points, or 1
percent, to 3,664.
All 10 industry sectors in the S&P 500 index rose, led by banks and industrial stocks.
2013-08-02 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]
If actual < forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
Spain Unemployment Continues To Fall
Spain's unemployment declined for the fifth straight month in July, the Labor Ministry said Friday.
number of registered unemployed fell sharply by 64,866 or 1.36 percent
in July from the prior month. The overall unemployment totaled 4.69
The ministry said registered unemployment among young people under 25 declined by 5.6 percent in the last twelve months.
in construction decreased 17,310 and dropped by 11,233 in industry. In
services, unemployment declined 37,614 and fell 1,063 in the agriculture
EURUSD - Trading the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
Time of release: 08/02/2013 12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
DailyFX Forecast: 180K to 200K
Why Is This Event Important:
The U.S. economy is expected to add another 185K jobs in July and a
positive development may spur a rally in the dollar as it raises the
outlook for growth. As the Federal Reserve retains its forward-guidance
for monetary policy, a strong employment report may further the argument
to taper the asset-purchase program, and the central bank may start to
lay out a more detailed exit strategy in the coming months as the
recovery gradually gathers pace.
Recent Economic Developments
The Upside/Bullish Scenario
As the fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy raises
the scope of seeing a larger-than-expected rise in NFPs, a faster rate
of job growth may encourage the FOMC to adopt a more hawkish tone for
monetary policy, and a positive development may prompt a sharp rally in
the greenback as the central bank appears to be slowly moving away from
its easing cycle.
The Downside/Bearish Scenario
Nevertheless, the persistent slack in the economy may continue to drag
on employment, and a weak NFP report may spur a short-term pullback in
the USD as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
The EURUSD may have carved out a near-term top in July as it falls back
from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3340, and the pair may
continue to give back the rebound from 1.2754 should a strong NFP report
further the Fed’s argument to scale back on quantitative easing.
However, as a dismal employment print dampens the appeal of the reserve
currency, a weaker-than-expected NFP report may spark another run at
resistance (1.3340) as it raises the scope of seeing the FOMC delay its
How To Trade This Event Risk
Expectations for another 185K rise in Non-Farm Payrolls instills a
bullish outlook for the reserve currency, and the market reaction may
pave the way for a long U.S. dollar trade as the data heightens the
scope of seeing the Fed scale back on QE. Therefore, if NFPs come
in-line with or top market expectations, we will need to see a red,
five-minute candle following the release to generate a sell entry on
two-lots of EURUSD. Once these conditions are fulfilled, we will set the
initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance from the
entry, and this risk will establish our first objective. The second
target will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the
second lot to cost once the first trade hits its mark in order to
preserve our profits.
In contrast, the ongoing slack in the real economy may continue to
drag on job growth, and a dismal print may dampen the appeal of the
greenback as it fuels speculation for additional monetary support. As a
result, if the labor data disappoints, we will implement the same trade
setup for a long euro-dollar trade as the short position mentioned
above, just in reverse.
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on USD during the last month
June 2013 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
Employment in the world’s largest economy increased another 195K in June
following the revised 195K rise the month prior, while the jobless rate
held steady at an annualized 7.6% for the second consecutive month as
discouraged workers returned to the labor force. The
better-than-expected print propped up the greenback, with the EURUSD
slipping below the 1.2850 region, and the reserve currency held rather
steady throughout the North American trade as the pair closed at 1.2828.
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops Despite Disappointing Job Growth
Employment in the U.S. increased by less than economists had
expected in the month of July, according to a report released by the
Labor Department on Friday, although the unemployment rate still fell to
its lowest level in over four years.
The Labor Department said
non-farm payroll employment increased by 162,000 jobs in July following a
downwardly revised increase of 188,000 jobs in June.
had expected employment to increase by about 175,000 jobs compared to
the addition of 195,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
the weaker than expected job growth, the unemployment rate dipped to
7.4 percent in July from 7.6 percent in June. The unemployment rate had
been expected to edge down to 7.5 percent.
With the bigger than
expected decrease, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since
hitting 7.3 percent in December of 2008.
Commenting on the impact
of the report, Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets,
said, "While we still lean toward the Fed announcing a tapering of asset
purchases in September, we will need to see a good bounce in August
employment and in the economic data to get there."
the unemployment rate has moved lower, the recent economic softness
will raise doubts among policymakers about whether this progress can be
sustained," he added.
The job growth in July reflected the
addition of 157,000 jobs in the service-providing sector, although that
reflects a slowdown from the increase of 188,000 jobs in June.
the report showed an acceleration in the pace of job growth in the
retail sector, fewer jobs were added in the temporary help services and
healthcare and social assistance sectors.
The Labor Department
also said averagely hourly employee earnings edged down $0.02 to $23.98
in July after jumping by $0.10 in June. Average hourly earnings are
still up by 1.9 percent year-over-year.
Quick question: Can you tell the difference between “imminent” and “imaginary” trends in the markets?
It’s an important consideration, if you are a market timer
at heart. For instance, a lot of folks bought gold in the last few
years on the presumption that its ultimate triumph over all other asset
classes was imminent.
That one turned out to be imaginary, at least for now. Something similar happened to Apple stock investors. Once it broke that $1 trillion market cap, boy, the sky was the limit! Also, sadly for some, an imaginary outcome.
If you’re going to be a market timer, you have have to be able to
forecast the future. It’s a feat many people attempt every single day on
financial cable TV.
They rarely get checked on those market direction calls, of course. But you know the language they use:
And so on and so forth, filling up the airwaves with tons of blather
quickly forgotten. Mostly, it’s money managers and, on occasion,
business world celebrities and other well-known faces.
Some of these folks are serious about managing money. Many are not.
Everything they discuss is, by definition, imminent. In practice, it’s
often also imaginary. As it turns out, these are not mutually exclusive
So can anyone be a market timer? Sure, by trading trends in reverse.
Rather than attempting to predict what will happen next, you own the
market — using a variety of investments and asset classes via index funds — and just wait.
Eventually, the big wheels of the money world will turn, moving capital from one part of the market to another. Hedge funds
do their thing. Big institutional investors get pushed around by
changes in their models. People retire and cash out. Others come in to
A smart investor waits for opportunities to appear, and those
opportunities are far more obvious in the rear-view mirror. As your
initial portfolio gets distorted by events, you will be handed chance
after chance to sell gainers and buy other, “unloved” assets on the
A simple approach
You don’t have to go all in to make it work. Just shave off the upside and buy things on the downside as you go using a simple rebalancing approach. Keep costs low and be patient. In time, your chance to make the trades that matter will appear.
There’s little glory in incremental moves, I know. But a low-cost, low-stress trading portfolio using inexpensive ETFs can get you the compounding return performance you need to retire on time, no TV watching required.
Forex - Weekly outlook: August 5 - 9
The dollar ended Friday’s session mostly lower against its major
counterparts after weaker-than-forecast U.S. jobs data dampened
expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to unwind its stimulus
program by the year's end.The Department of Labor said the U.S.
economy added 162,000 jobs in July, less than the 184,000 increase
forecast by economists. June's figure was revised down to 188,000 from a
previously reported 195,000.