Oil prices recover after slipping on China data :
U.S. futures for crude oil rebounded from earlier losses on Monday as
upbeat manufacturing data from Europe helped compensate for lackluster
data from China, the world’s second-largest economy.
Crude for August delivery
rose 48 cents, or 0.5%, to $97.05 a barrel in electronic trade. Gains
came alongside higher U.S. stock futures and as the dollar continued to
move up against the yen.
Oil gathered some momentum after European data
showed gains for manufacturing activity, as measured by purchasing
managers survey indexes. Only Germany’s PMI was revised down. That data
also helped boost Europe stocks.
Oil was dinged earlier after separate surveys showed further slowing in Chinese manufacturing activity in June.
The report from the Chinese government showed the manufacturing
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 50.1 from 50.8 in May. A
separate survey from HSBC showed its own monthly PMI declining to 48.2
in June from 49.2 in May.
EURUSD Technical Analysis 30.06 - 07.07 : Possible Reversal
newdigital, 2013.07.01 16:07
2013-07-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
past data is 49.0 according to release
forecast is 50.6
actual is 50.9 according to latest release.
U.S. Manufacturing Index Climbs Slightly More Than Expected In June
After reporting a
contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity in the previous month, the
Institute for Supply Management released a report on Monday showing that
manufacturing activity expanded by a little more than expected in June.
ISM said its purchasing managers index climbed to 50.9 in June from
49.0 in May, with a reading above 50 indicating an increase in
manufacturing activity. Economists had been expecting the index to edge
up to a reading of 50.5.
Gold jumps 2 pct after biggest quarterly drop on record
Gold jumped 2 percent on Monday as trading for the third quarter opened, but traders were doubtful about near-term strength over continuous worries about a pullback of U.S. stimulus measures that caused bullion's record drop in the previous quarter.
The dollar fell against most currencies as better-than-expected manufacturing data from Europe and Japan provided relief to gold and other risky assets that have recently sold off with the prospect of reduced stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve.
Investor confidence in gold - which fell a record 23 percent in the second quarter - has been eroded by rising talk of an end to the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy, which would support arise in interest rates, making the shiny metal less attractive.
Spot gold hovered at around $1,234 an ounce by 11:50 EDT (1550 GMT). It had surged 2.2 percent earlier to a session peak of $1,260.61, well above the near three-year low of $1,180.71 on Friday on speculation the Fed will rein in its $85 billion monthly bond purchase programme.
Comex gold futures for August delivery were up 2.6 percent at $1,254.70.
This was the following high impacted news event for AUD at 04:30 am GMT (or at 06:30 MQ time) :
2013-07-02 04:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Interest Rate]
Australia's Central Bank Keeps Cash Rate Unchanged :
Australia's central bank on Tuesday decided to retain the benchmark
cash rate unchanged at 2.75 percent as expected, while maintaining its
view that the inflation outlook allowed some scope to ease monetary
The Reserve Bank Board judged that the easier
financial conditions now in place will contribute to a strengthening of
growth over time, consistent with achieving the inflation target.
The Board also noted that the recent national accounts data has confirmed that the economy has been growing a bit below trend over the recent period.
2013-07-02 08:30 GMT | [GBP - PMI Construction]
This news event was at 08:30 am GMT, or 10:30 MQ time.
UK Construction Activity At One-Year High :
British construction sector activity expanded for a second
consecutive month in June and at the strongest pace in over a year, a
survey report from Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of
Purchasing & Supply showed Tuesday.
The headline purchasing managers' index rose to 51 in June from 50.8 in May. The June reading was the highest since May 2012.
above 50 indicate expansion of the sector. The index has now remained
above 50 for a second successive month in June.
levels were driven by a solid rate of new order growth in June, and this
in turn contributed to rising employment levels in the construction
sector during the latest survey period, the report said.
order growth was the strongest in 13 months. In June, the rate of job
creation was the most marked since September 2012. The survey also found
that business confidence among builders was at its highest level since April 2012.
building activity improved for a fifth consecutive month, but the rate
of expansion eased from May's 26-month high. Business activity
stabilized in commercial and civil engineering sub-sectors.
2013-07-02 09:00 GMT | [EUR - Producer Price Index (PPI)]
Eurozone Producer Prices Fall For Second Month :
Eurozone producer prices declined for the second consecutive month
in May, largely reflecting weak energy prices, data published by
Eurostat revealed Tuesday.
Producer prices slipped 0.1 percent on
a yearly basis, after falling 0.2 percent in April. This was the second
consecutive fall in prices. Economists had forecast prices to remain
flat in May.
Month-on-month, producer prices fell 0.3 percent,
which was slower than the 0.6 percent decline seen in April. But the
rate of decline slightly exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.2 percent.
Prices in total industry excluding the energy sector increased 0.5 percent from a year ago, following a 0.6 percent rise.
consumer goods gained 0.7 percent and non-durable consumer goods rose 2
percent. Likewise, capital goods increased by 0.6 percent, it said.
Meanwhile, prices in the energy sector decreased 1.8 percent and intermediate goods fell by 0.5 percent.
2013-07-02 14:00 GMT | [USD - Factory Orders]
U.S. Factory Orders Rise Slightly More Than Expected In May
New orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose by slightly more than
expected in the month of May, according to a report released by the
Commerce Department on Tuesday, with the increase largely due to a jump
in orders for transportation equipment.
The Commerce Department
said factory orders surged up by 2.1 percent in May following an
upwardly revised 1.3 percent increase in April. Economists had expected
orders to increase by 2.0 percent compared to the 1.0 percent growth
originally reported for the previous month.
2013-07-02 16:30 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] - see release here
The whole speech is here : The National and Regional Economy :
Since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009, we have had 15
consecutive quarters of positive growth of real GDP. However, the
average annual growth rate over that period has been just 2.1
percent. Although the unemployment rate has declined by 2.5 percentage
points from its peak of 10 percent in October of 2009, much of this
decline is due to the fact that the labor force participation rate has
fallen by 1.5 percentage points over this period. Recall that
discouraged workers who do not actively look for work are regarded as
not participating in the labor force and so are not counted as
unemployed even though they are without jobs. Using an alternative
measure, the employment to population ratio, which is not influenced by
changes in the number of discouraged workers, there has been limited
improvement in labor market conditions. Job loss rates have fallen, but
hiring rates remain depressed at low levels. Taken together, the labor
market still cannot be regarded as healthy. Numerous indicators,
including the behavior of labor compensation and household assessments
of labor market conditions, are all consistent with the view that there
remains a great deal of slack in the economy.
That being said, I see persuasive evidence of improved underlying
fundamentals for much of the private sector of the U.S. economy. Key
measures of household leverage have declined and are now at the lowest
levels they have been in well over a decade. Household net worth,
expressed as a percent of disposable income, has increased back to its
average of the previous decade, reflecting rising equity and home prices
and declining liabilities. Banks are beginning to ease credit
standards somewhat after a prolonged period of tightness. As a result,
we are now experiencing a fairly typical cyclical recovery of consumer
spending on durable goods. For example, light-weight motor vehicles
sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million in May, not
far from the 16.1 million sales in 2007.
We are having the thread about Gold here : Gold is Reaching at 1270 with some short technical analysis estimating by AbsoluteStrength indicator so that is why I am uploading some press releases for Gold on this thread.
Gold is Reaching at 1270
newdigital, 2013.07.01 21:04
How can we know: correction, or bullish etc (in case of using indicator for example)?
well ... let's take AbsoluteStrength indicator from MT5 CodeBase.
bullish (Bull market) :
bearish (Bear market) :
ranging (choppy market - means: buy and sell on the same time) :
flat (sideways market - means: no buy and no sell) :
correction in a bear market (Bear Market Rally) :
Forbes - Analysts: Gold Needs Fresh Catalyst To Build On Short-Covering Rally :
Gold would need a catalyst such as softer U.S. economic data or a break
above key technical-chart levels, if the metal is to continue the bounce
from a 34-month low hit Friday, traders and analysts said.
Otherwise, they say, the recent bounce is mainly the result of some
traders trying to pick a bottom and covering short positions. The latter
is buying to offset positions in which traders previously sold, or went
A wide range of markets, including Treasury notes, has been factoring in
an expectation that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will start
tapering its quantitative easing program this year, assuming economic
improvement continues. Against this backdrop, as the dollar and Treasury
yields rose, August gold last week fell as far as $1,179.40 an ounce on
the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
“It’s fallen so much a bounce would be expected,” said Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial.
That’s just what happened, with the contract climbing back to an
overnight high of $1,267. That meant a low-to-high gain over the last
several days of $87.60, or 7.4%.
Traders have suggested short covering ahead of the end of the second
quarter, U.S. Fourth of July holiday and Friday’s employment data have
helped support prices above $1,200, as well as profit taking.
So what would it take for gold to keep rallying?
“You would need to see a major fundamental change,” said Sterling Smith,
futures specialist with Citi Institutional Client Group. “We would have
to see inflation or something that would support the Fed continuing its
In particular, the metal would benefit if the monthly U.S. jobs report
due out Friday were to come in weaker than forecast, said Sean Lusk,
director of commercial trading with Walsh Trading.
“If that were to happen, we would create more uncertainty in the market
over when any tapering might begin for QE3 (third round of quantitative
easing),” Lusk said. “Jobs are everything as far as the economy is
concerned. If the jobs number comes in below 100,000 or in the low 100s
or much worse than expected, we have a chance to rally to $1,280, $1,290
and maybe challenge $1,300.”
Rob Kurzatkowski, senior commodity analyst with optionsXpress, commented
that gold is already drawing some support from traders who see the
recent sell-off as a buying opportunity.
“Gold prices have fallen below levels that would make some mines
unprofitable, suggesting that some mines may either curb production or
go off-line until the price of the metal increases,” Kurzatkowski said.
“The break-even points for South African mines may increase later this
month, as labor talks between unions and mines kick off. The unions have
a number of demands, including sharp wage increases. South African
mines could fight the wage increase, which could lead to labor turmoil
and strikes, or cave in to mine workers. Either scenario could
potentially be bullish for gold prices.”
Meanwhile, Kurzatkowski listed both $1,200 and $1,300 as significant
levels on each side of the market. He also commented that the “ferocity”
of the price action on the bounce has not matched the previous selling
“The $1,200 level is technically significant in the near term, as there
is very little support between it and the $1,000 support mark,” he said.
“Failure to hold $1,200 could kick off a fresh wave of selling
pressure. If gold futures manage to take out the $1,300 level on the
upside, the market may see additional short covering, potentially
accelerating the rally.”
Just about those 2 news events for AUD - Trade Balance and Retail Sales. First one is Trade Balance :
2013-07-03 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]
Australia Trade Surplus A$670 Million In May :
Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of
A$670 million in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on
Wednesday - up 292 percent on month.
The headline figure blew away
forecasts for a surplus of A$53 million following the upwardly revised
A$171 million surplus in April (originally A$28 million).
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